A monthly newsletter of the Legislative Budget Office of LSC  
Volume: Fiscal Year 2021  
Issue: February 2021  
Highlights  
Ross Miller, Chief Economist  
Favorable results for sales tax revenue continued in January with GRF receipts  
from the tax $42 million above the estimate published by the Office of Budget and  
Management (OBM) in September 2020. Personal income tax (PIT) receipts did even  
better, coming in $72 million above estimate. Shortfalls in several other taxes limited  
GRF taxes as a whole to $81 million above estimate. GRF uses were $499 million  
below estimate in January, continuing the favorable FY 2021 experience on the  
spending side of the budget.  
Ohios unemployment rate declined to 5.5% in December, below the national  
rate of 6.7% that month. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased 11,500 (0.2%) for  
the month, with the leisure and hospitality sector hard hit again, accounting for  
9
,200 of the decline for the month.  
Through January 2021, GRF sources totaled $22.92 billion:  
Revenue from the sales and use tax was $398.3 million above estimate;  
PIT receipts were $146.8 million above estimate.  
Through January 2021, GRF uses totaled $21.62 billion:  
Program expenditures were $1.21 billion below estimate, primarily due to  
GRF Medicaid spending, which was $999 million below estimate;  
Expenditures under all other program categories were below estimates  
except for Primary and Secondary Education, for which spending was above  
estimate by $19.2 million.  
In this issue...  
More details on GRF Revenues (p. 2), Expenditures (p. 13),  
the National Economy (p. 26), and the Ohio Economy (p. 29).  
Also Issue Updates on:  
Infant Mortality Report (p. 19)  
Federal Rental and Utility Assistance (p. 20)  
State Opioid Response Spending Plan (p. 20)  
Residential Substance Abuse Treatment Grants (p. 21)  
CARES Act Funding for Higher Education (p. 22)  
2
020 Ohio Remediation Report (p. 22)  
Early Childhood Education Grant Report (p. 23)  
Statewide Campaign Finance Filing Website (p. 24)  
Nationstar Mortgage Settlement (p. 25)  
Available online at: www.lsc.ohio.gov/Budget Central  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 1: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of January 2021  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on February 1, 2021)  
State Sources  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
$130,058  
$922,126  
$1,052,184 $1,010,400  
$119,800  
$890,600  
$10,258  
$31,526  
$41,784  
8.6%  
3.5%  
4.1%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$1,059,028  
$60,145  
$72,067  
$26,607  
$278  
$16  
$40,094  
$240  
$987,500  
$73,400  
$70,300  
$27,900  
-$2,800  
$100  
$58,400  
$700  
$2,600  
$4,900  
$5,100  
$0  
$71,528  
-$13,255  
$1,767  
-$1,293  
$3,078 109.9%  
-$84  
-$18,306  
-$460  
-$2,430  
-$494  
$531  
$0  
-$1,024  
$0  
7.2%  
-18.1%  
2.5%  
-4.6%  
-84.1%  
-31.3%  
-65.7%  
-93.5%  
-10.1%  
10.4%  
---  
---  
---  
---  
$170  
$4,406  
$5,631  
$0  
-$1,024  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$0  
Total Tax Revenue  
$2,319,843 $2,238,500  
$81,343  
3.6%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$14,984  
$2,462  
$11,093  
$5,000  
$3,777  
$2,647  
$11,423  
$9,984 199.7%  
-$1,315 -34.8%  
$8,447 319.2%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$28,539  
$17,116 149.8%  
Transfers In  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$98,459  
-$21,283  
$77,176  
---  
4.4%  
-1.9%  
2.3%  
Total State Sources  
Federal Grants  
$2,348,382 $2,249,923  
$1,086,155 $1,107,438  
$3,434,537 $3,357,361  
Total GRF Sources  
*
estimate, adjusted for the shift of income tax filings from April (FY 2020) to July (FY 2021)).  
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2020 (H.B. 166  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 2  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 2: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate ($ in thousands)  
FY 2021 as of January 31, 2021  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on February 1, 2021)  
State Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2020**  
Percent  
$1,016,997  
$6,018,089  
$7,035,086  
$901,300  
$5,735,500  
$6,636,800  
$115,697  
$282,589  
$398,286  
12.8%  
4.9% $5,707,281  
6.0% $6,633,635  
$926,354  
9.8%  
5.4%  
6.1%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$6,129,730  
$835,420  
$502,185  
$179,137  
$176,775  
$840  
$20,147  
$51,019  
$19,387  
$35,726  
$34,402  
$2,062  
$5,982,900  
$863,700  
$461,900  
$194,400  
$157,900  
$2,100  
$27,900  
$68,400  
$25,300  
$32,600  
$30,400  
$4,400  
$0  
$146,830  
-$28,280  
$40,285  
-$15,263  
$18,875  
-$1,260 -60.0%  
-$7,753 -27.8%  
-$17,381 -25.4%  
-$5,913 -23.4%  
$3,126  
$4,002  
-$2,338 -53.1%  
$5,802  
$59  
$12  
2.5% $5,411,725  
13.3%  
-6.3%  
5.3%  
-7.3%  
2.7%  
-78.9%  
-43.4%  
-22.5%  
-5.2%  
13.5%  
9.9%  
-3.3%  
8.7%  
-7.9%  
12.0%  
$891,845  
$476,830  
$193,340  
$172,046  
$3,971  
$35,618  
$65,832  
$20,453  
$31,490  
$31,316  
$4,041  
9.6%  
13.2%  
-49.0%  
$5,802  
$59  
$12  
$15,027,791 $14,488,700  
---  
---  
---  
$85 6763.2%  
$0  
$38  
$0  
$0  
---  
-67.1%  
7.6%  
Total Tax Revenue  
$539,091  
3.7% $13,972,264  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$32,561  
$18,000  
$94,045  
$144,607  
$18,750  
$13,223  
$81,748  
$113,721  
$13,811  
$4,777  
$12,297  
73.7%  
36.1%  
15.0%  
27.2%  
$76,957  
$15,498  
$79,879  
$172,334  
-57.7%  
16.1%  
17.7%  
-16.1%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$30,886  
Transfers In  
$85,026  
$77,932  
$7,094  
9.1%  
$75,598  
12.5%  
7.3%  
Total State Sources  
Federal Grants  
$15,257,424 $14,680,353  
$577,071  
3.9% $14,220,196  
-7.9% $6,318,467  
-0.3% $20,538,663  
$7,658,343 $8,315,700 -$657,357  
$22,915,767 $22,996,053 -$80,286  
21.2%  
11.6%  
Total GRF SOURCES  
*
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2020 (H.B. 166 estimate, adjusted for the  
shift of income tax filings from April (FY 2020) to July (FY 2021)).  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2020.  
*
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 3  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
1
Revenues  
Jean J. Botomogno, Principal Economist  
Overview  
FY 2021 GRF sources through January of $22.92 billion were $80.3 million (0.3%) short of  
the estimate released by OBM in September 2020. GRF sources consist of state-source receipts,  
which include tax revenue, nontax revenue, and transfers in, and federal grants. Year-to-date  
(
YTD), FY 2021 federal grants posted a negative variance of $657.4 million (7.9%). Revenue for  
this GRF category is related to spending for Medicaid and other human services programs; GRF  
Medicaid expenditures posted a large negative variance totaling $999.0 million (8.4%) through  
January. The shortfall of federal grants was partially offset by positive variances of $539.1 million  
(3.7%) for GRF tax sources, $30.9 million (27.2%) for nontax revenue, and $7.1 million (9.1%) for  
transfers in. Tables 1 and 2 show GRF sources for the month of January and for FY 2021 through  
January, respectively.  
OBM recently released updated FY 2021 GRF estimates with the introduction of the  
executive budget (Blue Book). OBM now anticipates GRF revenue of $36.21 billion for the full  
fiscal year, down from its September estimate of $38.42 billion, with most of the variance in  
federal grants. The reduction in estimated GRF tax revenues was $634.5 million. Because LBO has  
not received updated monthly estimates for the remainder of this fiscal year, this publication will  
continue to compare actual GRF sources to the estimates released in September 2020.  
The fiscal years GRF tax overage was due to favorable performances by three of the major  
taxes. Through the first seven months, the sales and use tax, the PIT, and the cigarette tax were  
$
398.3 million, $146.8 million, and $40.3 million above their respective estimates. The  
commercial activity tax (CAT), another major tax source, had a YTD shortfall of $28.3 million, due  
in part to poor tax payments in August tied to COVID-19-related measures in the spring quarter.2  
Regarding the other taxes, the foreign insurance tax, the liquor gallonage tax, and the alcoholic  
beverage tax were above their respective YTD revenue targets by $18.9 million, $4.0 million, and  
$
$
partly offset by deficits from the public utility tax (in part due to a one-time refund not  
anticipated), the kilowatt-hour tax, the natural gas consumption tax, and the petroleum activity  
tax (PAT). These taxes experienced negative variances of $17.4 million, $15.3 million,  
3.1 million. Unexpectedly, the corporate franchise tax (CFT) had a YTD positive variance of  
5.8 million, due to revenue from the conclusion of certain audits. The positive variances were  
3
1 This report compares actual monthly and year-to-date GRF revenue sources to OBMs estimates. If  
actual receipts were higher than estimate, that GRF source is deemed to have a positive variance.  
Alternatively, a GRF source is deemed to have a negative variance if actual receipts were lower than estimate.  
2 To slow the pandemic outbreak, the Governor issued an emergency declaration on March 9, 2020,  
and various public health orders followed, including a stay-at-home requirement and some business  
closures. Those measures reduced economic activity and taxable gross receipts in the spring quarter, which  
was the basis for the tax paid by quarterly CAT taxpayers in August 2020.  
3 Though GRF receipts are no longer anticipated because H.B. 510 of the 129th General Assembly  
eliminated the CFT at the end of 2013, adjustments to tax filings in previous years continue to affect this  
tax source.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 4  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
$
financial institutions tax (FIT) payments totaling $40.1 million in January, an amount that was  
5.9 million, and $2.3 million, respectively. In addition, financial institutions made their first  
$
of $10.6 million at the end of December, and resulted in a YTD negative variance of $7.8 million.  
18.3 million below estimate; this negative performance erased a cumulative positive variance  
4
January GRF sources were above expectations by $77.2 million (2.3%) due to positive  
variances of $81.3 million (3.6%) for GRF taxes and $17.1 million (149.8%) for nontax revenues,  
which were partially offset by a shortfall of $21.3 million (1.9%) for federal grants. Revenue from  
transfers in was not anticipated in January 2021 and none was made. For the month, the PIT, the  
sales and use tax, and the cigarette tax were above their anticipated revenue levels by  
$
71.5 million, $41.8 million, and $1.8 million, respectively. The foreign insurance tax also had a  
positive variance of $3.1 million. In addition to the FITs monthly negative variance mentioned  
earlier,5 most of the remaining tax sources experienced shortfalls, including the CAT  
($13.3 million), the natural gas consumption tax ($2.4 million), the kilowatt-hour tax  
(
sources through January in FY 2021.  
$1.3 million), and the CFT ($1.0 million). Chart 1, below, shows cumulative YTD variances of GRF  
Chart 1: Cumulative Variances of GRF Sources in FY 2021  
(
Variances from Estimates, $ in millions)  
$
$
$
600  
400  
200  
$0  
-
-
-
-
$200  
$400  
$600  
$800  
Jul-20  
Aug-20  
Sep-20  
Oct-20  
Nov-20  
Dec-20  
Jan-21  
Federal Grants  
Tax Revenue  
Total GRF Sources  
Growth of GRF sources relative to year-ago sources has followed the same patterns in the  
last few months, with large increases in federal grants and tax revenues. YTD GRF sources rose  
2.38 billion (11.6%) compared to sources in the corresponding period in FY 2020, with increases  
$
of $1.34 billion (21.2%) for federal grants and $1.06 billion (7.6%) for tax sources. Growth for  
federal grants was due in part to a COVID-19-related temporary rise in the share of federal  
4 Annual FIT tax returns are due in October, but estimated payments are made at the end of  
January, March, and May. The reconciliation between estimated payments and final tax liability generally  
results in net refunds between July and December.  
5 Monthly FIT revenue was $71.6 million as of February 8, 2021, above projected receipts of  
51.3 million for the month. Thus, the recent shortfall is likely to be reversed in February.  
$
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 5  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
reimbursements for Medicaid. This increase, which was authorized by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief,  
and Economic Security (CARES) Act, accounted for $676.2 million of the $1.34 billion growth in  
federal grants. Transfers in also rose by $9.4 million (12.5%), but nontax revenue fell by  
$
27.7 million (16.1%). The growth in GRF tax sources was led by an increase of $718.0 million in  
PIT revenue and $401.5 million for the sales and use tax. The increase in PIT revenue was  
primarily due to a delay in the tax filing deadline from April until July, as explained in more detail  
in the PIT section below, while sales and use tax revenue has been supported by federal income  
support programs since the spring of 2020. Revenue from the cigarette tax, the CFT, the foreign  
insurance tax, the alcoholic beverage tax, and the liquor gallonage tax increased by $25.4 million,  
$
5.7 million, $4.7 million, $4.2 million, and $3.1 million, respectively. On the other hand, revenue  
declined for the CAT ($56.4 million), the FIT ($15.5 million), the public utility tax ($14.8 million),  
the kilowatt-hour tax ($14.2 million), the domestic insurance tax ($3.1 million), and the  
PAT ($2.0 million).  
Sales and Use Tax  
The sales and use tax has performed well throughout FY 2021. Both portions of the tax  
(
i.e., auto and nonauto) again beat their respective estimates in the latest month. January GRF  
sales and use tax revenue of $1.05 billion was $41.8 million (4.1%) above estimate. Compared to  
receipts last year in the same month, revenue was higher by $9.8 million (0.9%). Through January,  
FY 2021 revenue totaled $7.04 billion. This amount was $398.3 million (6.0%) above OBM  
projections. YTD GRF receipts from this tax were also $401.5 million (6.1%) above receipts in the  
corresponding period in FY 2020.  
For analysis and forecasting, revenue from the sales and use tax is separated into two  
parts: auto and nonauto. Auto sales and use tax collections generally arise from the sale of motor  
vehicles, but auto taxes arising from leases are paid at the lease signing and are mostly recorded  
under the nonauto tax instead of the auto tax.  
Nonauto Sales and Use Tax  
YTD GRF nonauto sales and use tax receipts totaled $6.02 billion, an amount  
282.6 million (4.9%) above estimate and $310.8 million (5.4%) above revenue in FY 2020  
$
through January. January receipts of $922.1 million were $31.5 million (3.5%) above estimate.  
Monthly receipts were $5.3 million (0.6%) above revenue in January 2020. Generally, a large part  
of a months nonauto sales and use tax revenue is from tax collection or tax remittance on taxable  
sales in the previous month. The future performance of this tax source is likely to be dependent  
on continued improvement in the Ohio economy and labor markets. However, recent increases  
in COVID-19 infections may lead to a near-term economic downturn and might negatively affect  
growth of nonauto sales and use tax revenue in the second half of the fiscal year. On the other  
hand, further deployment of vaccines may also mitigate any potential economic impact of  
increased infections. Chart 2, below, provides year-over-year growth in nonauto sales and use  
tax collections in 2020.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 6  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 2: Nonauto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
1
0.0%  
5
0
.0%  
.0%  
-
5.0%  
-
-
10.0%  
15.0%  
Auto Sales and Use Tax  
The auto sales and use tax has been very strong in FY 2021. In the first seven months,  
FY 2021 receipts totaled $1.02 billion, an amount $115.7 million (12.8%) above estimate and  
$
90.6 million (9.8%) above revenue in the corresponding period last fiscal year. January auto  
sales and use tax revenue was $130.1 million, $10.3 million (8.6%) above estimate and  
4.6 million (3.6%) above such receipts in January 2020. Chart 3, below, shows year-over-year  
$
growth in auto sales and use tax collections, the pandemic-related revenue declines earlier in  
calendar year (CY) 2020 from both low demand and low supply of vehicles, and the subsequent  
rebound starting in late spring and continuing through the current fiscal year. As with the  
nonauto portion, the future performance of this tax source is likely to be dependent on  
improvement in the Ohio economy and labor markets and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic  
and vaccine deployment.  
New U.S. light vehicle (auto and light truck) sales came in above expectations in January,  
with sales of both light trucks and autos increasing from their December levels. However, sales  
of 16.6 million units (on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis) in January were about 1.5%  
below year-ago total unit sales, though unit sales of light trucks and SUVs rose 3.4% compared to  
those of January 2020. Although a useful barometer of the direction of the industry, U.S. light  
vehicle monthly unit sales do not track closely with Ohios auto sales and use tax performance  
and have been for several months below auto sales and use tax growth.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 7  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 3: Auto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
3
2
1
0.0%  
0.0%  
0.0%  
0
.0%  
-
-
-
-
10.0%  
20.0%  
30.0%  
40.0%  
Personal Income Tax  
A positive revenue variance of $71.5 million (7.2%) in January pushed up the YTD positive  
variance of the PIT to $146.8 million, up from $75.3 million during the first six months of the fiscal  
year. FY 2021 GRF receipts from the PIT of $6.13 billion were also $718.0 million (13.3%) above  
such revenue in FY 2020 through January. The large year-over-year PIT revenue growth (which is  
expected to decrease over time) is directly attributable to the delay of income tax filings from  
April to July 2020. Excluding July receipts, combined PIT GRF revenue was $167.9 million (3.5%)  
above receipts in the August to January period in FY 2020. Among measures designed to combat  
rd  
the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, H.B. 197 of the 133 General Assembly authorized the  
Tax Commissioner to delay various state tax payments, which he did for this tax, to match the  
extended deadline for federal income tax returns. Thus, in July 2020, payments associated with  
annual returns of $501.9 million were $492.5 million above such payments in July 2019; PIT GRF  
revenue for the month was $550.1 million (87.3%) above receipts in July 2019. About  
$
719.0 million in income tax annual returns and first-quarter estimated payments were  
postponed and realized in FY 2021, according to the Department of Taxation.  
PIT revenue to the GRF is comprised of gross collections, minus refunds and distributions  
to the Local Government Fund (LGF). Gross collections consist of employer withholdings,  
6
quarterly estimated payments, trust payments, payments associated with annual returns, and  
other miscellaneous payments. The performance of the tax is typically driven by employer  
withholdings, which is the largest component of gross collections (about 87% of gross collections  
in FY 2020). Larger or smaller than expected refunds (which decrease gross collections) could also  
greatly affect the monthly performance of the tax.  
6 Quarterly estimated payments are made by taxpayers who expect to be underwithheld by more  
than $500. Payments are due in April, June, and September of an individuals tax year and January of the  
following year. Most estimated payments are made by high-income taxpayers.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 8  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
January PIT revenue to the GRF totaling $1.06 billion was above anticipated revenue due  
7
to fewer than anticipated refunds. Refunds were $62.2 million (61.7%) below their projected  
level. Gross collections were $10.0 million (0.9%) above target. Employer withholding and  
miscellaneous payments had shortfalls of $28.9 million and $3.2 million, respectively. Those  
negative variances were offset by positive variances of $35.8 million for quarterly estimated  
payments, $3.9 million for taxes due with annual returns, and $2.3 million for trust payments.  
For FY 2021 through January, revenues from each component of the PIT relative to  
estimates and revenue received in FY 2020 are detailed in the table below. FY 2021 gross  
collections were $81.9 million above anticipated revenue. Quarterly estimated payments and  
trust payments were above their projections by $90.6 million and $16.7 million, respectively.  
Those positive variances were partially offset by shortfalls of $14.1 million for employer  
withholding, $5.5 million for payments due with annual returns, and $5.8 million for  
miscellaneous payments. Refunds were $79.7 million below estimate, but LGF distributions were  
above expectation by $14.8 million, thus resulting in the YTD positive variance of $146.8 million  
for the GRF.  
Compared to the corresponding period in FY 2020, gross collections have been higher in  
FY 2021 due to the income tax filing delay. They grew $791.3 million, driven by increases of  
$
estimated payments. In addition, trust payments rose $42.9 million. On the other hand, employer  
withholding and miscellaneous payments were below their respective FY 2020 levels by  
597.8 million from payments due with annual returns and $168.6 million for quarterly  
$
12.2 million and $5.8 million. FY 2021 refunds and LGF distributions were higher than those in  
FY 2020 by $55.4 million and $17.9 million, respectively. Therefore, growth in PIT GRF revenue  
totaled $718.0 million relative to YTD receipts in FY 2020. Year-over-year growth in withholding  
receipts in CY 2020 had been limited through December 2020 because of a 4.0% reduction in  
withholding rates effective January 2020 due to the reduction of income tax rates for  
nonbusiness income enacted in H.B. 166. This limitation on growth in withholding receipts no  
longer applies starting in January 2021.  
7 This year, the Internal Revenue Service delayed the opening of the filing of the federal income  
tax returns to February 12, 2021. Accordingly, the Department of Taxation will also start accepting and  
processing tax returns that day, two weeks later than in 2020. About 90% of Ohio income tax returns are  
filed electronically.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 9  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
FY 2021 PIT Revenue Variance and Annual Change by Component  
YTD Variance from Estimate  
Changes from FY 2020  
Category  
Amount  
$ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
Amount  
($ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
(
Withholding  
-$14.1  
$90.6  
$16.7  
-$5.5  
-0.3%  
13.9%  
27.3%  
-0.7%  
-13.3%  
1.2%  
-$12.2  
$168.6  
$42.9  
-0.2%  
Quarterly Estimated Payments  
Trust Payments  
29.5%  
121.9%  
432.1%  
-13.4%  
12.7%  
9.4%  
Annual Return Payments  
Miscellaneous Payments  
Gross Collections  
$597.8  
-$5.8  
-$5.8  
$81.9  
-$79.7  
$14.8  
$146.8  
$791.3  
$55.4  
Less Refunds  
-11.0%  
5.9%  
Less LGF Distribution  
GRF PIT Revenue  
$17.9  
7.2%  
2.5%  
$718.0  
13.3%  
The chart below illustrates the growth of monthly employer withholdings on a  
three-month moving average relative to one year ago. It shows both the actual change in  
withholding receipts in FY 2021 and estimated withholding receipts adjusted for the January 2020  
decrease in the withholding tax rate through the first half of FY 2021. Payrolls are estimated to  
have increased about 3.0%, on average, in the last three months.  
Chart 4: Monthly Witholding Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
8
6
4
2
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
-
-
-
-
2.0%  
4.0%  
6.0%  
8.0%  
-
-
10.0%  
12.0%  
Actual  
Adjusted  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 10  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Poor performance from the CAT in January increased the YTD negative GRF variance of  
this tax source to $28.3 million (3.3%), up from $15.0 million in the first half of FY 2021. GRF  
revenue of $60.1 million for the month was $13.3 million (18.1%) below estimate, brought down  
by a large amount of credits and refunds. Monthly GRF revenue was also $23.7 million (28.2%)  
below January 2020 revenue. For the fiscal year, GRF receipts of $835.4 million were $56.4 million  
(
totaled $1.09 billion, a decrease of $41.1 million (3.6%) relative to gross collections in FY 2020  
through January. Refunds and credits were $102.7 million this fiscal year, an increase of  
6.3%) below GRF revenue in the first seven months of FY 2020. YTD FY 2021 gross collections  
$
$
was based on activity that occurred during the July to September period. This outcome was  
consistent with a recovering economy. The third fiscal quarter started poorly, but its results will  
mostly be determined by remittances by quarterly CAT taxpayers on February 10, 2021, reflecting  
taxable gross receipts in the October to December period.  
25.7 million (33.4%) above those items in FY 2020. After a first quarter GRF shortfall of  
23.5 million, the CAT experienced a positive variance of $8.5 million in the second quarter, which  
Under continuing law, CAT receipts are deposited into the GRF (85.0%), the School District  
Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7047, 13.0%), and the Local Government  
Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7081, 2.0%). Distributions to Fund 7047 and  
Fund 7081 were $127.8 million and $19.7 million, respectively. The distributions to Fund 7047  
and Fund 7081 are used to make reimbursement payments to school districts and other local  
taxing units, respectively, for the phase out of property taxes on general business tangible  
personal property. Any receipts in excess of amounts needed for such payments are generally  
transferred back to the GRF.  
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Tax  
YTD revenue from the cigarette and other tobacco products (OTP) tax totaling  
502.2 million was above estimate by $40.3 million (8.7%). This total included $443.1 million  
$
from the sale of cigarettes and $59.1 million from the sale of OTP. Revenue from this tax source  
continues to outpace projected receipts as the pandemic wears on; positive revenue variances  
over several months appear to be related to heightened consumption since March 2020. January  
receipts of $72.1 million were $1.8 million (2.5%) above estimate, but $2.3 million ($3.0%) below  
revenue in January 2020. The monthly decline relative to the same month a year ago was entirely  
due to a drop in cigarette revenue while revenue from OTP sales increased. Most recent months  
have seen year-over-year growth in total revenue from the tax.  
Through January, FY 2021 receipts grew $25.4 million (5.3%) relative to revenues in the  
corresponding period in FY 2020. Receipts from cigarette sales and OTP sales increased by  
$
13.7 million (3.2%) and $11.7 million (24.6%), respectively. The increase in OTP revenue is  
due, in part, to additional revenue from the vapor tax. H.B. 166 levied a tax of 10¢ per milliliter  
or gram) of vapor product (depending on the form of the product) which is defined as any  
(
liquid solution or other substance that contains nicotine and is depleted as it is used in an  
8
electronic smoking product. The OTP tax is an ad valorem tax, generally 17% of the wholesale  
8 Of total receipts in FY 2020 of $82.4 million from the sale of OTP, the tax on vapor products  
contributed $3.6 million, or about 4%, according to the Ohio Department of Taxation.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 11  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
price paid by wholesalers for the product; thus, revenue from that portion of the tax base  
(
about 9% of the total tax base in FY 2020) grows with OTP price increases.  
On a yearly basis, revenue from the cigarette tax usually trends downward, generally at a  
slow pace. It is unclear how long smokers will maintain this higher level of tobacco consumption,  
though the long-term annual decline in cigarette consumption may resume later this year.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 12  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 3: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of January 2021  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run February 3, 2021)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$761,004  
$175,897  
$7,836  
$768,217  
$183,090  
$7,885  
-$7,213  
-$7,193  
-$49  
-0.9%  
-3.9%  
-0.6%  
-1.5%  
Other Education  
Total Education  
$944,737  
$959,192  
-$14,455  
Medicaid  
$1,198,892 $1,658,667 -$459,775 -27.7%  
$108,765 $149,809 -$41,044 -27.4%  
$1,307,658 $1,808,476 -$500,819 -27.7%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$232,038  
$46,930  
$233,806  
$40,909  
-$1,768  
$6,020  
$4,252  
-0.8%  
14.7%  
1.5%  
Total Government Operations  
$278,968  
$274,715  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
-$4  
$124,176  
$124,173  
$0  
$121,968  
$121,968  
-$4  
$2,209  
$2,205  
---  
1.8%  
1.8%  
Total Other Expenditures  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$2,655,535 $3,164,352 -$508,817 -16.1%  
$9,645 $0 $9,645 ---  
$2,665,180 $3,164,352 -$499,172 -15.8%  
Total GRF Uses  
*September 2020 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 13  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 4: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2021 as of January 31, 2021  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run February 3, 2021)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
$19,217  
Percent FY 2020** Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$4,777,494 $4,758,277  
$1,318,670 $1,334,211  
0.4%  
-1.2%  
-4.0%  
$4,986,544  
$1,331,136  
-4.2%  
-0.9%  
-$15,541  
-$2,069  
$1,607  
Other Education  
$49,175  
$51,244  
$55,045 -10.7%  
Total Education  
$6,145,339 $6,143,732  
0.0% $6,372,724  
-3.6%  
Medicaid  
$10,856,316 $11,855,308  
-$998,992  
-$89,930  
-8.4%  
-9.7%  
$9,865,975  
$859,186  
10.0%  
-2.2%  
9.1%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
$840,498  
$930,428  
$11,696,814 $12,785,736 -$1,088,922  
-8.5% $10,725,161  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$1,515,067 $1,577,185  
$264,643 $293,637  
$1,779,711 $1,870,822  
-$62,118  
-$28,994  
-$91,112  
-3.9%  
-9.9%  
$1,500,226  
$263,210  
1.0%  
0.5%  
0.9%  
Total Government Operations  
-4.9% $1,763,436  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$904,345  
$650,140  
$933,578  
$650,238  
-$29,233  
-$98  
-3.1%  
0.0%  
$905,289  
-0.1%  
$1,024,647 -36.5%  
Total Other Expenditures  
$1,554,485 $1,583,816  
-$29,331  
-1.9% $1,929,937 -19.5%  
-5.4% $20,791,258 1.9%  
-0.2% $663,620 -33.0%  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$21,176,348 $22,384,106 -$1,207,758  
$444,870 $445,900 -$1,030  
$21,621,218 $22,830,006 -$1,208,788  
Total GRF Uses  
-5.3% $21,454,878  
0.8%  
*
*
September 2020 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2020.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 14  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5: Medicaid Expenditures by Department  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on February 8, 2021)  
Month of January 2021  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Year to Date through January 2021  
Department  
Medicaid  
GRF  
Actual  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
$1,144,604 $1,593,128 -$448,524 -28.2% $10,457,479 $11,439,935  
$989,063 $926,303 $62,760 6.8% $5,856,834 $5,895,019  
-$982,456  
-$38,185  
-8.6%  
-0.6%  
-5.9%  
Non-GRF  
$
2,133,667 $2,519,431 -$385,764 -15.3% $16,314,314 $17,334,954 -$1,020,641  
All Funds  
Developmental Disabilities  
GRF  
$48,777  
184,878  
233,655  
$59,460  
$187,175  
$246,635  
-$10,684 -18.0%  
$340,989  
$352,089  
-$11,100  
$58,683  
$47,583  
-3.2%  
4.1%  
2.7%  
$
-$2,296  
-1.2%  
-5.3%  
$1,499,635 $1,440,952  
$1,840,624 $1,793,041  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$
-$12,980  
Job and Family Services  
GRF  
$4,679  
$5,156  
$9,112  
-$477  
$166  
-9.3%  
1.8%  
$51,005  
$97,755  
$56,152  
$104,026  
$160,178  
-$5,147  
-$6,272  
-9.2%  
-6.0%  
-7.1%  
Non-GRF  
$9,277  
13,957  
$
$14,268  
-$312  
-2.2%  
$148,759  
-$11,419  
All Funds  
Health, Mental Health and Addiction, Aging, Pharmacy Board, and Education  
GRF  
$833  
$923  
$2,394  
$3,316  
-$90  
-9.8%  
$6,843  
$19,055  
$25,898  
$7,133  
$23,266  
$30,399  
-$290  
-4.1%  
Non-GRF  
$1,780  
-$614 -25.6%  
-$704 -21.2%  
-$4,211 -18.1%  
-$4,501 -14.8%  
$
2,613  
All Funds  
All Departments:  
GRF  
$1,198,892 $1,658,667 -$459,775 -27.7% $10,856,316 $11,855,308  
$1,184,999 $1,124,983 $60,016 5.3% $7,473,278 $7,463,263  
2,383,891 $2,783,650 -$399,759 -14.4% $18,329,594 $19,318,572  
-$998,992  
$10,015  
-8.4%  
0.1%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$
-$988,977  
-5.1%  
*September 2020 estimates from the Office of Budget and Management and Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 15  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6: All Funds Medicaid Expenditures by Payment Category  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on February 8, 2021)  
Month of January 2021  
Year to Date through January 2021  
Actual Estimate* Variance Percent  
Payment Category  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Managed Care  
CFC†  
$1,652,083 $1,964,761 -$312,677 -15.9% $12,334,784 $12,879,755 -$544,971  
-4.2%  
-4.7%  
-8.6%  
-3.1%  
-3.2%  
-3.8%  
37.5%  
$600,828  
$510,462  
$241,616  
$79,619  
$219,557  
$0  
$707,466 -$106,638 -15.1% $4,263,994 $4,472,069 -$208,075  
$653,430 -$142,968 -21.9% $3,589,637 $3,928,565 -$338,928  
Group VIII  
ABD†  
$266,924  
$86,581  
$250,359  
$0  
-$25,308  
-$6,962  
-9.5% $1,746,954 $1,802,404  
-8.0% $562,598 $581,093  
-$55,450  
-$18,494  
-$65,636  
$141,612  
ABD Kids  
My Care  
-$30,802 -12.3% $1,652,016 $1,717,652  
$0 --- $519,585 $377,973  
P4P & Ins Fee†  
Fee-For-Service  
ODM Services  
DDD Services  
Hospital -  
HCAP&Other†  
$573,280  
$322,610  
$229,208  
$656,053  
$390,991  
$242,061  
-$82,773 -12.6% $4,835,148 $5,227,474 -$392,326  
-$68,382 -17.5% $2,401,170 $2,672,915 -$271,745 -10.2%  
-$12,854 -5.3% $1,789,882 $1,738,743 $51,140 2.9%  
-7.5%  
$
21,463  
$23,000  
-$1,537 -6.7% $644,095 $815,816 -$171,721 -21.0%  
Premium Assistance  
Medicare Buy-In  
Medicare Part D  
$97,064  
$62,509  
$34,555  
$95,973  
$61,276  
$34,697  
$1,092  
$1,233  
-$142  
1.1%  
2.0%  
$641,051  
$432,280  
$208,770  
$626,093  
$416,812  
$209,282  
$14,957  
$15,469  
-$512  
2.4%  
3.7%  
-0.4%  
-0.2%  
Administration  
Total  
$61,463  
$66,864  
-$5,401  
-8.1%  
$518,612  
$585,249  
-$66,637 -11.4%  
-5.1%  
$2,383,891 $2,783,650 -$399,759 -14.4% $18,329,594 $19,318,572 -$988,977  
*September 2020 estimates from the Office of Budget and Management and Department of Medicaid.  
P4P & Ins Fee - Pay For Performance, and Health insurance provider fee.  
CFC - Covered Families and Children; ABD - Aged, Blind, and Disabled; HCAP - Hospital Care Assurance Program;  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 16  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
EMexlanpey Cearnter,dDiriecttorures9  
Ivy Chen, Principal Economist  
Overview  
GRF program expenditures totaled $21.18 billion for the first seven months of FY 2021.  
These expenditures were $1.21 billion (5.4%) below the estimate released by OBM in early  
September 2020. All program categories, except for Primary and Secondary Education, had  
negative YTD variances at the end of January. The program category with the largest negative  
variance was Medicaid, which had a negative YTD GRF variance of $999.0 million (8.4%).  
Medicaid also had the largest negative GRF variance for the month of January at $459.8 million  
(
27.7%). It should be noted that Medicaid variances are measured against estimates that are  
approximately $3 billion higher for all funds Medicaid expenditures for the fiscal year than the  
estimates established when H.B. 166 was enacted. Health and Human Services had the second  
highest negative YTD variance of $89.9 million (9.7%), and the second highest monthly variance  
at $41.0 million (27.4%). YTD variances are shown in the preceding Table 4, while Table 3 shows  
January variances.  
In addition to program expenditures, total uses include transfers out. Transfers out  
totaled $444.9 million YTD and had a negative YTD variance of $1.0 million (0.2%) at the end of  
January. Combining program expenditures and transfers out, total GRF uses for the first seven  
months of FY 2021 were $21.62 billion. These uses were $1.21 billion (5.3%) below estimate. The  
rest of this section discusses both GRF and non-GRF variances in Medicaid and the GRF variance  
in Health and Human Services.  
Medicaid  
GRF Medicaid expenditures were below their monthly estimate in January by  
$
459.8 million (27.7%) and below their YTD estimate, by $999.0 million (8.4%), at the end of  
January. Non-GRF Medicaid expenditures were above their monthly estimate, by $60.0 million  
5.3%), and above their YTD estimate, by $10.0 million (0.1%). Including both the GRF and  
(
non-GRF, all funds Medicaid expenditures were $399.8 million (14.4%) below estimate in January  
and $989.0 million (5.1%) below their YTD estimate at the end of January. The Medicaid  
expenditure and caseload estimates used in this report were updated by the Ohio Department  
of Medicaid (ODM) for FY 2021. These updates were precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic and  
are thus different from the expenditure and caseload estimates outlined in H.B. 166. The updated  
expenditure estimates include approximately $3 billion in increases for the fiscal year, related to  
many impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.  
Table 5 shows GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures for ODM, the Ohio Department  
of Developmental Disabilities (ODODD), and six othersister agencies that also take part in  
administering Ohio Medicaid. ODM and ODODD account for about 99% of the total Medicaid  
9 This report compares actual monthly and YTD expenditures from the GRF to OBMs estimates. If  
a program categorys actual expenditures were higher than estimate, that program category is deemed  
to have a positive variance. The program category is deemed to have a negative variance when its actual  
expenditures were lower than estimate.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 17  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
budget. Therefore, they generally also account for the majority of the variances in Medicaid  
expenditures. ODM had an all funds negative variance in January of $385.8 million (15.3%), and  
YTD expenditures also were below estimate, with a negative variance of $1.02 billion (5.9%).  
ODODD had a January all funds negative variance of $13.0 million (5.3%) and ended the month  
with a YTD positive variance of $47.6 million (2.7%). The other six sisteragencies Job and  
Family Services, Health, Aging, Mental Health and Addiction Services, State Board of Pharmacy,  
and Education account for the remaining 1% of the total Medicaid budget. Unlike ODM and  
ODODD, the six sisteragencies incur only administrative spending.  
Table 6 shows all funds Medicaid expenditures by payment category. Expenditures were  
below their YTD estimates for three of the four payment categories as of the end of January.  
Managed Care had the largest negative variance of $545.0 million (4.2%), followed by  
Fee-For-Services negative variance of $392.3 million (7.5%), and Administrations negative  
variance of $66.6 million (11.4%). Premium Assistance YTD expenditures were above estimate by  
$
15.0 million (2.4%).  
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic began to show in March 2020s Medicaid  
caseloads, and the impacts have continued to show through monthly caseload increases since  
March. From March 2020 through January 2021, caseloads have increased by 32,000 cases per  
month, on average. According to ODM, nearly all of the caseload variance has been due to the  
suspension of routine redeterminations of eligibility and an increase in the number of new  
applications and approvals due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on  
updated FY 2021 ODM estimates, Januarys caseload of 3.1 million enrollees is approximately  
3
98,000 cases (11.3%) below estimate.  
Health and Human Services  
The Health and Human Services program category includes all non-Medicaid GRF  
expenditures by several state agencies. This category had a negative variance of $41.0 million  
(
27.4%) in January, increasing its YTD negative variance to $89.9 million (9.7%). The Ohio  
Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) was responsible for $35.7 million (86.9%) of the  
negative variance in this category in January and $52.5 million (58.1%) of the YTD negative  
variance. ODJFSs negative January variance was dominated by a negative variance of  
$
27.8 million in appropriation item 600523, Family and Children Services, which offset a positive  
variance of $27.5 million for this item in December. For the YTD, item 600523 is under estimate  
by $10.7 million. The uses of item 600523 include providing funding to public children services  
agencies for child protection, supplementing federal Title XX funds provided to counties, and  
supporting foster parents. For a description of the remaining YTD variance in this category, please  
see the prior months Budget Footnotes.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 18  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Issue Updates  
ODH Releases 2019 Ohio Infant Mortality Report  
Jacquelyn Schroeder, Senior Budget Analyst  
On December 17, 2020, the Ohio Department of Health (ODH) released its 2019 Ohio  
Infant Mortality Report. The report found that the overall number of infant deaths across all  
races, as well as the corresponding infant mortality rate, has decreased for several years in a  
1
0
row. Between 2016 and 2019, the number of infant deaths decreased from 1,023 to 929, while  
the infant mortality rate declined from 7.4 to 6.9.11 ODHs goal is to attain an overall infant  
mortality rate of 6.0 by 2028. The infant mortality rate for white and Hispanic infants met this  
goal in 2019 with rates of 5.1 and 5.8, respectively. The rate for black infants, however, remains  
higher than the goal. In 2019, this rate was 14.3, almost three times higher than the rate for white  
infants. The report also looked at the leading causes, as well as risk factors associated with, infant  
deaths. Prematurity-related conditions were the most common cause of infant death, followed  
by congenital anomalies or birth defects, and external injuries. In addition, certain maternal  
health behaviors or conditions are associated with an increased risk of infant death. These  
include: a previous pregnancy within 18 months or less, maternal smoking, maternal weight (both  
obese and underweight mothers had higher infant mortality rates), maternal age (mothers under  
age 20 experienced the highest rates followed by mothers age 40 and over), and lack of access  
to prenatal care.  
The release of the 2019 report also coincides with the Governors announcement that the  
Eliminating Racial Disparities in Infant Mortality Task Force will be established. The goal of the  
task force will be to develop a statewide strategy for reducing infant mortality and eliminating  
racial disparities in birth outcomes by 2030. The state has taken numerous other steps to address  
infant mortality over the past several years as well. This includes safe sleep education and access  
to cribs, pre- and inter-conception health efforts, increasing home visiting enrollment, and  
establishing grant programs to reduce smoking rates for pregnant women. In addition, there have  
also been targeted efforts that focus on areas with the highest risk of infant mortality. One such  
effort uses local community health workers to identify at-risk pregnant women and connect them  
to healthcare and other necessary social services.  
To read the 2019 report in its entirety or to learn more about Ohios efforts to reduce  
infant mortality, please refer to ODHs Infant and Fetal Mortality Reports page on ODHs website  
(www.odh.ohio.gov).  
10 Infant deaths are defined as deaths prior to an individual’s first birthday. The infant mortality  
rate is the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births.  
11 Even though the number of infant deaths decreased from 2018 to 2019, the infant mortality  
rate remained the same because there were fewer babies born in 2019.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 19  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Controlling Board Approves $100.0 Million for Rental and  
Utility Assistance  
Shannon Pleiman, Senior Budget Analyst  
On January 25, 2021, the Controlling Board approved a request from OBM to establish an  
appropriation of $100.0 million to be used by the Development Services Agency (DSA) for  
1) rental assistance, (2) utility and home energy assistance, and (3) administrative and operating  
(
costs of overseeing the funds. The appropriation is federal funding made available from the  
federal Consolidated Appropriations Act for 2021 and will support the states efforts to respond  
to the COVID-19 pandemic. Part of the Act provides states with funding to assist individuals  
impacted by the pandemic with rent, rent arrears, utilities and home energy costs, and utility and  
home energy costs arrears.  
DSA will distribute the funds to local community action agencies (CAAs) according to the  
low- and moderate-income populations and unemployment rates within each county. Individuals  
at or below 80% of the area median income are eligible for assistance. Rental assistance is  
available for households that have fallen behind on rent payments, or that are facing eviction,  
and can also be used to make future rent payments. Utility (water, sewer, and trash removal) and  
home energy (heating and electric) payment assistance for households which are behind on  
payments, in danger of losing service, or whose service has been disconnected can be used to  
cover arrears and future payments. Both assistance types will be provided to the landlord or  
utility provider directly. The Consolidated Appropriations Act allows 10% of the funds (up to  
$
CAAs. If the full allocation of funding for administration and operating is not required by CAAs,  
the funds remaining are to be used for individual assistance.  
10 million of this appropriation) to be used for administrative and operating costs incurred by  
This funding is in addition to the $55.2 million allocated to DSA under the Home Relief  
Grant established by the Controlling Board on October 26, 2020. That grant used federal CARES  
Act funding to provide mortgage, rental, water, or sewer utility payment assistance to individuals  
at or below 200% of the federal poverty level. As of December 2020, DSA had awarded  
$
50.0 million in assistance and $5.0 million in administrative and operating costs to CAAs under  
this program.  
OhioMHAS Announces Spending Plan for Federal SOR Funds  
Ryan Sherrock, Economist  
On December 18, 2020, the Ohio Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services  
(OhioMHAS) released a spending plan for the $96.2 million federal State Opioid Response (SOR)  
grant funds it received this past fall. Of this amount, $76.5 million was provided directly to state,  
local, and community stakeholders to fund local community efforts. The majority of these  
community funds were awarded to local alcohol, drug addiction, and mental health services  
(
ADAMHS) boards to support treatment programs and initiatives. These community funds are  
also being used to do the following: distribute naloxone to reverse overdoses; expand fentanyl  
awareness campaigns; support Ohios prescription drug monitoring system; implement  
community provider projects focusing on peer and re-entry supports, recovery housing, and  
culturally appropriate services; and connect families to appropriate care through increased early  
screening and assessments. The remaining $19.7 million is being used to implement OhioMHAS’  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 20  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
statewide priorities and awareness campaigns, to develop innovative technology to help manage  
behavioral health conditions (e.g., mobile apps), and to administer and evaluate grant activities.  
The spending detail, along with ADAMHS boards allocations, can be read at OhioMHASwebsite.  
These grant funds were awarded by the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services  
st  
Administration as part of the 21 Century CURES Act. In total, Ohio has received $235.1 million  
since the programs inception in 2018. Past and current Ohio SOR efforts include expanding  
prevention efforts related to naloxone distribution, increasing access to medication-assisted  
treatment and recovery housing, and developing employment opportunities for persons in  
recovery from opioid addiction.  
Criminal Justice Services Awards $427,000 in Federal  
Residential Substance Abuse Treatment Grants  
Maggie West, Senior Budget Analyst  
On December 17, 2020, the Office of Criminal Justice Services announced the award of  
427,144 in federal fiscal year (FFY) 2020 Residential Substance Abuse Treatment (RSAT) for State  
$
Prisoners Program subgrants to projects in Montgomery, Franklin, and Shelby counties. The RSAT  
Program assists state and local governments in developing and implementing substance abuse  
treatment programs for incarcerated offenders within state and local facilities, as well as in  
creating and maintaining community-based aftercare services for offenders. In order to be  
eligible to receive RSAT Program funding, states must coordinate the design and implementation  
of treatment programs between state corrections representatives and the state alcohol and drug  
abuse agency. If appropriate, coordination must also occur between representatives of local  
corrections agencies and the state, or appropriate local, alcohol and drug abuse agency.  
The following table lists the FFY 2020 RSAT Program project recipients, a project  
description, and the award amount. All projects receive funding for a 12-month period and  
require a 25% cash or in-kind match; there are also quarterly reporting requirements. Of the  
three projects that received funding, two are continuation projects (MonDay and Alvis), meaning  
that they received funding in prior years.  
FFY 2020 Residential Substance Abuse Treatment Grant Recipients  
Award  
Award Recipient  
Project Description  
Amount  
MonDay Community  
Based Correctional Facility  
Focuses on developing cognitive, behavioral, social,  
vocational, and other skills of offenders according to their  
needs  
$179,157  
(Montgomery County)  
Alvis, Inc. (Franklin  
County)  
Receives referrals from the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation  
and Correction and Franklin County Probation and admits  
women assessed as being at moderate to high risk to recidivate  
$137,987  
$110,000  
Shelby County Sheriffs  
Office  
Sheriffs Treatment and Recovery (STAR) House serves as a  
recovery house working with the Shelby County Jail, and  
accommodates up to 20 residents at a time  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 21  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Controlling Board Approves $22.6 Million in CARES Act Funds  
to Address COVID-19-related Impacts on Higher Education  
Edward Millane, Senior Budget Analyst  
On December 14, 2020, the Controlling Board approved a Department of Higher  
Education (DHE) request to appropriate $22.6 million in federal funds for a variety of initiatives  
that respond to COVID-19-related issues in higher education. The funding is supported by federal  
CARES Act funds deposited into the Governors Emergency Education Relief Fund (Fund 3HQ0).  
The chart below shows that $12.1 million, or 53.6%, of the new $22.6 million appropriation (line  
item 235509, GEER Higher Education Initiatives) will be used to expand broadband capacity at  
several of Ohios higher education institutions, followed by $4.5 million (19.9%) for community  
colleges to improve student retention rates, $3.5 million (15.5%) for statewide transfer  
guarantee and Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) completion initiatives, and  
$
2.5 million (11.0%) for the Ohio Library and Information Network (OhioLINK) to purchase  
additional materials for remote and hybrid courses.  
Chart 5: Fund 3HQ0 Line Item 235509, GEER-Higher Education Intiatives, by Initiative  
(
$ in millions)  
Total: $22.6 million  
Community College  
Retention Rates,  
$
4.5 ,  
1
9.9%  
Expand Broadband  
Capacity,  
Statewide  
Transfer/FAFSA  
Initiatives,  
$
12.1 ,  
3.6%  
5
$
3.5 ,  
1
5.5%  
OhioLINK Materials,  
2.5 ,  
1.0%  
$
1
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 22  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Remediation Rates of First-time Ohio Public College and  
University Students Continue to Decline  
Jason Glover, Budget Analyst  
In December, DHE and the Ohio Department of Education (ODE) released their annual  
1
2
report on remediation coursework. The 2020 Ohio Remediation Report shows a continued  
decline in the number of first-time public university and community college students requiring  
remedial coursework in mathematics and English. The table below illustrates the drop in the  
percentage of such students between academic year 2014-2015 and academic year 2019-2020.  
Remediation Rates of First-Time Ohio Public College or University Students  
by Subject Area and Academic Year  
Subject Area  
Remedial Mathematics or English  
Remedial Mathematics Only  
Remedial English Only  
2014-2015  
29.3%  
2019-2020  
23.8%  
20.2%  
9.6%  
25.9%  
12.0%  
Remedial Mathematics and English  
8.6%  
6.0%  
The report recommends seven strategies to continue the trend of decreased enrollment  
in college remediation coursework: (1) continuously review remediation data and respond with  
interventions in key academic areas from Pre-K through higher education, (2) emphasize to  
students the importance of attendance and the effectiveness of early interventions,  
(
3) strengthen advising support for all students, (4) ensure more high school graduates are ready  
for college through the use of transition classes that address academic gaps in high school,  
5) review and implement strategies to close the access and achievement gaps among specific  
(
groups of students, such as students of color, English learners, economically disadvantaged, rural  
students, students over age 25, and students with disabilities, (6) improve student success in  
entry-level courses by aligning mathematics to academic programs of study, and (7) continue the  
development, implementation, and evaluation of corequisite strategies (when a student enrolls  
in both remedial and credit-bearing courses in the same subject at the same time) to support  
underprepared students.  
ODE Reports on Early Childhood Education Grants in FY 2020  
Sarah Anstaett, LSC Fellow  
In December 2020, ODE released its Annual Report on Early Childhood Education (ECE)  
Grants. The report addresses the allocation of grant funding and compliance with ECE program  
requirements. The following table shows that in FY 2020, 369 ECE grant funded programs  
12  
The full report can be viewed at https://www.ohiohighered.org/data-reports/college-  
readiness.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 23  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
received grant funding of $71.5 million to serve 17,870 children at 658 locations. The ECE  
locations are spread across 80 counties in Ohio, with 36% of children served in Cuyahoga,  
Franklin, Lucas, Hamilton, or Montgomery counties.  
Early Childhood Education Grant-Funded Programs  
Category  
FY 2020  
$71,480,000  
17,870  
$4,000  
369  
Total State ECE Grant Funding  
Total Number of Children Funded  
State-funded Per-child Amount  
Number of State-funded Grantees  
Number of Site Locations  
658  
Grantees must adhere to program requirements to improve learning and development  
programs. ODE uses webinar training, among other resources, to communicate requirements and  
best practices. Teachers must complete 20 hours of professional development every two years.  
ECE programs must also assess children twice per year using Ohios Early Learning Assessment.  
Additionally, ECE programs must earn 3-, 4-, or 5-star ratings in Ohios Step Up to Quality rating  
system. In FY 2020, 85.4% of programs participating in Step Up to Quality earned 5-star ratings.  
Another 8.7% of the programs earned 4-star ratings and 5.8% earned 3-star ratings. To monitor  
program implementation in FY 2020, ODE conducted 80 on-site visits and 23 desk reviews prior to  
March 13, 2020. When in-person learning transitioned to virtual learning in spring 2020, teachers  
used online resources to continue educating children and engaging with parents.  
Secretary of State Launches Statewide Campaign Finance Filing  
Website  
Terry Steele, Senior Budget Analyst  
In late January 2021, the Secretary of State launched a statewide campaign finance filing  
website in advance of the January 29, 2021, campaign finance filing deadline. This site was  
rd  
launched as a result of the enactment of S.B. 107 of the 133 General Assembly. The act, which  
became effective on January 1, 2021, gives candidates for the State Board of Education, local  
offices, and certain political organizations involved with local campaigns the option to file their  
campaign finance statements online instead of on paper. Under current law, eight categories of  
campaign finance statement filers meeting certain contribution and spending thresholds are  
required to file campaign finance statements with the Secretary of State. The additional costs for  
expanding the filing website and the cost associated with retaining additional records and making  
them available to the public is minimal, according to the Secretary of State. The expenses related  
to this new website are paid from the Business Services Fund (Fund 5990) appropriation item  
0
50630, Elections Support Supplement. The website can be found at boefile.ohiosos.gov.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 24  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Ohio Receives $2.3 Million from a Multistate Settlement with  
Nationstar Mortgage  
Jessica Murphy, Budget Analyst  
On December 7, 2020, the Ohio Attorney General announced that it had agreed to an  
86.3 million multistate settlement with Nationstar Mortgage; Ohios portion totals $2.3 million.  
$
The settlement resolves claims that the company, doing business as Mr. Cooper, violated  
consumer protection laws during its servicing of mortgage loans between January 1, 2011, and  
1
3
December 31, 2017.  
Of the $2.3 million Ohio was awarded, approximately $2.1 million will be used to provide  
payments to remediate 1,862 loans that were impacted by Nationstars alleged misconduct. A  
large portion of this remediation has already been received by those eligible, provided through  
the appointed settlement administrator. Forthcoming payments will be similarly disbursed,  
including a guaranteed minimum payment of $250 (to a potential 252 borrowers) or $840 (to a  
potential 186 borrowers). The remaining $250,000 of Ohios share has been credited to the  
Consumer Protection Fund (Fund 6310) to fund services and activities that protect consumers  
from predatory and illegal business practices. This portion represents payment for the Attorney  
Generals costs and fees.  
Nationstar is the countrys fourth largest mortgage servicer and the largest nonbank  
mortgage servicer. The settlement came after a multiyear investigation, which involved the state  
mortgage regulators and the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Nationstar made no  
admission of liability as part of the settlement agreement negotiated with the state attorneys  
general. The company has agreed to abide by specific servicing standards in how it manages  
certain mortgage loans to address the issues discovered in the investigation. It will also conduct  
audits and provide audit results to a committee responsible for enforcing compliance with the  
settlement, which includes the Ohio Attorney General.  
13 Full details on the financial terms of the settlement can be found in the consent judgement,  
available at: https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Briefing-Room/News-Releases/Consumer-  
Protection/Nationstar-Proposed-Consent-Judgment.aspx.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 25  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
TErric Maakcelak, Eiconnomgist the Economy  
This month's edition of Tracking the Economy was derived from the Economic Outlook in  
LBO's Baseline Forecast of GRF Revenues & Medicaid Expenditures.  
Overview  
The longest economic expansion in the nation's history ended during FY 2020, and many  
businesses and households struggled to remain financially viable during the COVID-19 pandemic.  
Nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 9.8 million (-6.5%), from an all-time peak in February  
2
020 to December 2020.The national unemployment rate jumped to historic levels during 2020,  
with the substantial majority of job losses occurring in the service sector. Inflation-adjusted gross  
domestic product (real GDP) fell 3.5% in 2020, though annualized growth in the third (+33.4%)  
and fourth (+4.0%) quarters represented an uptick from a record-breaking contraction in the  
spring (-31.4%). Despite job losses, the wages and salaries component of personal income ended  
2
response to the economic shutdowns early on in the pandemic, financial markets were supported  
by inexpensive credit in the spring of 2020, as the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee  
020 above its 2019 level; total personal income was 6.3% greater in 2020 than the year prior. In  
(FOMC) cut the federal funds interest rate to near zero.  
Nonfarm payroll employment in Ohio fell by 357,400 (-6.4%) from its February peak to  
December 2020, as the state grapples with a winter resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In recent  
years, the personal income growth of Ohioans has lagged that of the nation by approximately  
one percentage point, while the state’s real GDP and population growth have also trailed  
comparable measures for the U.S. as a whole. The state's economy has largely mirrored that of  
the nation during 2020, with a rapid decline in real GDP in the second quarter (-33.0% annualized  
rate) followed by a record-setting rise in the third quarter (+36.9% annualized rate). Housing  
demand and residential construction activity both grew in 2020, as the market for homes became  
heated amidst a bump in income, somewhat widespread work-from-home orders, and other  
market adjustments.  
The National Economy  
The national economy experienced a monumental setback in 2020 during the COVID-19  
pandemic which prompted temporary closure of many businesses. In the spring of 2020, an initial  
round of federal stimulus to individuals, businesses, and governments propped up consumer  
spending, while a second wave of stimulus is expected to flow through the economy during the  
first half of 2021. Just prior to the pandemic, the nation had reached all-time peaks in real GDP  
and total employment (152.5 million); the national unemployment rate (3.5%) was the lowest on  
record since the 1960's. These peaks were incubated generally by high levels of consumer  
confidence, but also by financial and credit market conditions and corporate tax incentives that  
encouraged business fixed investment in the preceding years. Since March 2020, indicators of  
economic well-being have been largely mixed and prone to rapid swings. In the second quarter  
of 2020, real GDP fell at an annualized rate of 31.4%, the most rapid contraction in records kept  
since 1947, but trends now point in a direction of normalization.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 26  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The chart below demonstrates real GDP growth and changes in national industrial  
1
4
production over the last four years. The average annualized rate of real GDP growth from 2017  
to 2019 was 2.5%. National real GDP underwent record-setting swings in 2020, as annualized  
growth rates in the first (-5.0%), second (-31.4%), third (+33.4%), and fourth (+4.0%) quarters  
demonstrate the effects of the nation's rapid reaction to health threats and associated  
shutdowns. Real GDP in all of CY 2020 is estimated to have been 3.5% below that in 2019.  
Similarly, industrial production fell precipitously during the first half of 2020, but has since  
recovered most of this drop. As of December, total industrial production was 3.6% below its level  
a year prior.  
Chart 6: United States Output Measures  
5
4
3
2
1
0.0%  
0.0%  
0.0%  
0.0%  
0.0%  
0
.0%  
-
-
-
-
-
10.0%  
20.0%  
30.0%  
40.0%  
50.0%  
2
017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
Real Gross Domestic Product  
Total Industrial Production  
The nation reached its highest-ever level of seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll  
employment in February 2020 (152.5 million). Employment plunged in March and April, then  
recovered partially, and was 9.4 million lower in December than a year earlier, as a result of the  
ongoing pandemic and efforts to contain it. The pandemic has influenced all areas of economic  
activity, though its effects have reverberated more in service-sector employment  
(
-8.6 million; -6.6%) than in goods-producing occupations (-0.8 million; -3.7%).15 Many workers,  
some classified as on temporary layoff, began drawing unemployment insurance. Others  
dropped out of the labor force. During 2020, the number of persons age 16 and over who were  
not in the labor force increased by 5.1 million (+5.3%), and the employment-population ratio  
declined to its lowest point on monthly records kept since 1948.  
Business closures during 2020 resulted in weakness in real consumer spending during  
020 (-3.9%), following growth of 2.4% in 2019. The service sector (-7.3%) bore the brunt of the  
2
restrictions, while the jump in real disposable income during 2020 led to strength in the  
14 Industrial production as measured by the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production Index.  
15 Employment changes from December 2019 to December 2020.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 27  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
durable (+6.4%) and nondurable goods (+2.6%) sectors. Residential fixed investment rose 5.9%  
last year. Nonresidential fixed investment declined 4.0% during 2020, though trends in the third  
and fourth quarters marked a pickup from the lulls in the year's first half.  
National personal income growth ran counter-cyclical to real GDP growth in 2020;16  
annualized growth in personal income jumped from 4.1% in the first quarter to 35.8% in the  
second quarter, followed by decreases in the third (-10.2%) and fourth (-6.7%) quarters. On an  
annual basis, personal income increased by nearly $1.2 trillion (+6.3%) in 2020. Transfer receipts  
(
rising income during the year. Wages and salaries (+0.6%), business income (+2.3%), and rental  
income (+1.9%) were all higher in 2020 than the previous year.  
+36.6%) comprised most of the increase in personal income, but were not the only source of  
17  
Chart 6: United States Consumer Price Index  
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
2
017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
All Items  
Excluding Food and Energy  
Average inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) for all items, has  
generally run below 2% in recent years; annual inflation rates from 2017 through 2020, displayed  
in the above chart, averaged 1.9%. The average annual inflation rate from 2013 to 2016 was  
1
overall inflation has been largely influenced by both a decline in energy prices (-7.0%) and an  
increase in food prices (+3.9%).  
.2%.18 In December, consumer prices were 1.4% higher than a year prior. Over the last year,  
16 Personal income is income received from all sources: labor force compensation, rental or  
proprietorship income, income from financial assets, and government transfer receipts.  
17  
Transfer receipts include federal economic impact payments, unemployment insurance  
receipts, lost wages supplemental payments, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and select other  
pandemic-specific federal money.  
18 Annual growth rates as measured by the December-to-December change in the CPI for all items.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 28  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The FOMC ceased raising interest rates during its first meeting of 2019, when the  
committee determined that inflation remained muted near the central bank’s target, domestic  
job growth was strong, and unemployment low. Beginning on July 31, 2019, the FOMC began  
lowering short-term interest rates citing muted inflation and concerns about slowing economic  
growth abroad. Following sequential 0.25 percentage point rate reductions, the nation began its  
efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. In meetings during March 2020, the federal funds rate  
range was reduced to its lowest possible positive level, as displayed in the chart below. In addition  
to these steps, the FOMC has also adjusted its criteria for setting monetary policy and stepped  
up its bond-purchasing programs.  
Chart 7: Effective Federal Funds Rate  
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
.0%  
.5%  
.0%  
.5%  
.0%  
.5%  
.0%  
-
0.5%  
2
017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
The Ohio Economy  
In recent years, the economy in Ohio has grown at a slower rate than the national  
economy. From 2017 to 2019, the average growth rate of real GDP was 1.7% in Ohio and 2.5%  
nationally.1 In the second quarter of 2020, Ohio's real GDP contracted 1.6 percentage points  
more than the national rate, and in the third quarter, real GDP growth was 3.5 percentage points  
greater than the national rate. The industry contributing most to real GDP growth during the  
third quarter of 2020 was durables manufacturing, at least in part due to the steep reduction in  
output during the previous quarter.  
9
19 Annualized quarter-to-quarter growth rates of real GDP.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 29  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 8: Real Gross Domestic Product Growth  
Seasonally Adjusted  
4
3
2
1
0.0%  
0.0%  
0.0%  
0.0%  
0
.0%  
-
-
-
-
10.0%  
20.0%  
30.0%  
40.0%  
2
017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
Ohio  
United States  
As with GDP, job growth in Ohio, at least in sheer numbers, has generally lagged behind  
that of the country in recent years. From 2017 to 2019, average annualized employment growth  
in the service sector was 0.4% in Ohio compared to 1.6% nationally; in the same years, average  
2
0
employment growth in goods-producing industries was 1.2% in Ohio and 2.2% nationally. Total  
nonfarm employment growth is shown in the chart below. In December 2020, Ohio's nonfarm  
payroll employment fell 11,500 (-0.2%). There were 350,200 (-6.3%) fewer jobs in the state in  
December 2020 than there were a year prior; the service-providing sector lost 304,600 jobs  
(-6.5%) and the goods-producing sector lost 45,600 jobs (-4.9%).  
Chart 9: Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment  
Millions, Seasonally Adjusted  
1
1
1
1
1
1
53.9  
48.5  
43.1  
37.7  
32.3  
26.9  
5.7  
5.5  
5.3  
5.1  
4.9  
4.7  
2
017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
United States  
Ohio (right scale)  
20 Annualized quarter-to-quarter growth rates of nonfarm payroll employment.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 30  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Ohio's unemployment rate has been higher than the national unemployment rate since  
016, except for some months during the current pandemic. Ohios unemployment rate in  
2
December was 5.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from November, while the national  
unemployment rate was 6.7%. As of December 2020, the state's civilian labor force was down by  
1
force during that time. The Ohio and national unemployment rates from 2017 to 2020 are  
charted in the figure below.  
28,000 participants (-2.2%) from December 2019, while the United States lost 2.4% of its labor  
21  
Chart 10: Unemployment Rate  
Seasonally Adjusted  
1
1
1
8.0%  
5.0%  
2.0%  
9
6
3
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
2
017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
Ohio  
United States  
Personal income grew fairly steadily in Ohio and nationally prior to 2020. Between 2017  
and 2019, personal income grew at an average annualized rate of 3.6% in Ohio, compared with  
4
.6% nationally; the growth can be viewed in the chart below, which displays personal income  
growth in Ohio and the United States. During 2020, personal income grew sharply in some  
months, then contracted, as federal stimulus, including Payroll Protection Program payments and  
enhanced unemployment benefits, bolstered incomes.  
21 Civilian, noninstitutionalized individuals over the age of 16 are counted as labor force  
participants if they currently hold a job or are unemployed and have searched for work during the most  
recent four-week period.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 31  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 11: Personal Income  
Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates  
2
2
1
1
1
1,700  
0,150  
8,600  
7,050  
5,500  
700  
650  
600  
550  
500  
2
017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
United States  
Ohio (right scale)  
Markets for new and previously occupied housing were strong in 2020. Annual new  
housing completions nationwide during the last four years exceeded those in any prior year since  
007, the business cycle peak year ahead of the Great Recession of 2007-2009. New housing  
2
construction in Ohio, as indicated by the number of building permits issued, soared 26% during  
the year. The marketplace for existing homes in the state was heated in 2020, according to data  
from the Ohio Realtors trade organization. The number of homes sold during 2020 was 4.3%  
greater than in 2019. Perhaps more striking, the average sale price for an existing home during  
the year was $212,517, an increase of 9.9% from the previous year. The total dollar volume of  
existing home sales in Ohio was just over $34.4 billion last year, an annual increase of 14.7%.  
Chart 12: New Privately Owned Housing Units  
Authorized by Building Permits  
3
2
2
1
1
0.0%  
5.0%  
0.0%  
5.0%  
0.0%  
5
0
.0%  
.0%  
-
5.0%  
-
10.0%  
2
017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
United States  
Ohio  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 32  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Economic Forecasts  
The following are forecasts of key indicators of the economic environment that will  
determine state revenues during the next biennium. Some of the indicator forecasts were inputs  
to LBO models used to make state revenue forecasts. Both these economic indicator forecasts  
and LBO’s forecasts for state revenues are inherently subject to uncertainty. The economic  
indicator projections shown below are from IHS Markit’s baseline forecasts released in December  
2
orders, are built inherently into the IHS forecast.  
020. Assumptions regarding further COVID-19 stimulus, as well as the timing of public health  
The first line in each table contains quarter-by-quarter projected changes in the indicator  
at seasonally adjusted annual rates. The second line contains year-over-year projected changes  
in the indicator averaged over the four quarters of the fiscal year. The unemployment rate tables  
are IHS Economicsunemployment rate projections for the quarters indicated (first line) and the  
average of the rates in the quarters of each fiscal year (second line).  
U.S. Gross Domestic Product  
U.S. real GDP is projected to increase about 3.4% annually on average in the next  
biennium, as shown below.  
U.S. Real GDP Growth  
2
021  
2022  
Q2 Q4  
---------------------------------- Percent change at annual rate -----------------------------------  
2023  
Forecast  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
-
Quarterly  
Fiscal Year  
2.9  
2.3  
4.8  
4.1  
4.2  
3.3  
3.8  
2.7  
2.2  
2.5  
2.6  
3.0  
2.6  
2.6  
1
.0  
Ohio Gross Domestic Product  
Economic growth in Ohio is expected to continue through 2023 at a pace which reflects a  
post-economic-shock expansion. Ohio real GDP is projected to increase about 2.9% annually on  
average in the next biennium, somewhat slower than that of the nation.  
Ohio Real GDP Growth  
2
021  
2022  
Q2 Q4  
---------------------------------- Percent change at annual rate -----------------------------------  
2023  
Forecast  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
-
3
.4  
2.2  
4.2  
3.6  
3.4  
2.5  
3.4  
2.4  
2.0  
2.2  
2.2  
2.5  
2.2  
2.2  
Quarterly  
Fiscal Year  
0
.4  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 33  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
U.S. Inflation  
Inflation, as measured by the rate of increase in the CPI for all urban consumers, is  
predicted to average around 2.3% annually during the next biennium.  
U.S. Consumer Price Index Inflation  
2
021  
2022  
Q2 Q4  
---------------------------------- Percent change at annual rate -----------------------------------  
2023  
Forecast  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
-
1
.5  
2.2  
2.8  
2.8  
2.4  
2.4  
2.4  
2.4  
2.3  
1.7  
2.0  
2.3  
1.9  
1.9  
Quarterly  
Fiscal Year  
1
.5  
U.S. Personal Income  
Nationwide personal income is projected to grow about 2.8% on average annually during  
the upcoming biennium. Projections from IHS Markit reflect the firm's expectations for wage  
income and government transfers to persons, given potential Executive and congressional  
actions, during the forecast period.  
U.S. Personal Income Growth  
2
021  
2022  
Q2 Q4  
---------------------------------- Percent change at annual rate -----------------------------------  
2023  
Forecast  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
-
6
.9  
-2.6  
0.7  
3.4  
4.9  
4.1  
1.5  
3.8  
3.5  
4.7  
4.5  
4.1  
4.4  
4.4  
Quarterly  
Fiscal Year  
2
.8  
Ohio Personal Income  
Income to persons who reside in Ohio also is forecast to grow in the next biennium, at  
.4% annually on average, slightly lower than the pace of growth projected for the U.S.  
2
Ohio Personal Income Growth  
2
021  
Q2 Q3 Q4  
---------------------------------- Percent change at annual rate -----------------------------------  
2022  
2023  
Forecast  
Q1  
Q4  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
-
8
.2  
-2.9 0.0  
3.2  
4.4  
3.6  
1.1  
3.4  
3.1  
4.5  
4.0  
3.7  
4.1  
4.0  
Quarterly  
Fiscal Year  
2
.9  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 34  
February 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
U.S. Unemployment Rate  
According to IHS Markit’s December baseline forecast, the national unemployment rate  
is anticipated to decline throughout CY 2021. The unemployment rate will average around 4.8%  
annually during the upcoming biennium.  
U.S. Unemployment Rate  
2
021  
2022  
Q2  
---------------------------------- Percent of the labor force -----------------------------------  
2023  
Forecast  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
4.3  
-
6
.3  
6.2  
5.7  
5.2  
4.8  
4.6  
5.1  
4.5  
4.5  
4.5  
4.4  
4.5  
4.3  
Quarterly  
Fiscal Year  
7
.0  
Ohio Unemployment Rate  
Ohio’s unemployment rate is projected to decline to a low of 4.7% during the biennium.  
The statewide unemployment rate in December 2020, released subsequent to this forecast,  
was 5.5%.  
Ohio Unemployment Rate  
2
021  
2022  
Q2  
---------------------------------- Percent of the labor force -----------------------------------  
2023  
Forecast  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q3  
Q4  
Q1  
Q2  
Q3  
Q4  
4.5  
-
6
.3  
6.3  
6.1  
5.7  
5.3  
5.1  
5.6  
5.0  
5.0  
4.9  
4.7  
4.9  
4.6  
Quarterly  
Fiscal Year  
6
.8  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 35  
February 2021