A monthly newsletter of the Legislative Budget Office of LSC  
Volume: Fiscal Year 2021  
Issue: January 2021  
Highlights  
Ross Miller, Chief Economist  
December GRF tax revenue was $64 million above the estimate published by  
the Office of Budget and Management (OBM) in September 2020. Revenue from  
the sales and use tax exceeded expectations in December by $50 million,  
continuing the strength shown during the first five months of FY 2021. Revenue  
from all GRF taxes, including the sales and use tax, exceeded estimate by  
$
revenue exceeding GRF expenditures early in the fiscal year, noted (and explained)  
458 million during the first half of the fiscal year. The unusual situation of GRF  
in the December edition of Budget Footnotes, held true for the first half of FY 2021.  
Ohios unemployment rate dropped to 5.7% in November, and was a full  
percentage point lower than the national rate for that month. Total nonfarm  
payroll employment grew by 29,400 from October to November.  
Through December 2020, GRF sources totaled $19.48 billion:  
Revenue from the sales and use tax was $356.5 million (6.3%) above estimate;  
Personal income tax (PIT) receipts were $75.3 million (1.5%) above estimate.  
Through December 2020, GRF uses totaled $18.96 billion:  
Program expenditures were $698.9 million (3.6%) below estimate, including  
GRF Medicaid expenditures that were $539.2 million (5.3%) below estimate;  
Expenditures in the Primary and Secondary Education program category  
were above estimate by $26.4 million (0.7%); expenditures in all other  
program categories were below estimates.  
In this issue...  
More details on GRF Revenues (p. 2), Expenditures (p. 14),  
the National Economy (p. 30), and the Ohio Economy (p. 33).  
Also Issue Updates on:  
Increase in E-school Enrollment (p. 22)  
School Threat Assessment Training (p. 23)  
Children Services Transformation Report (p. 24)  
OhioRISE Applications (p. 25)  
CARES Act Funding for Veterans Homes (p. 25)  
Wastewater and Drinking Water Infrastructure Loans (p. 26)  
Maritime Assistance Program (p. 27)  
Historic Preservation Tax Credits (p. 28)  
Chronic Wasting Disease in Ohio Deer (p. 29)  
Available online at: www.lsc.ohio.gov/Budget Central  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 1: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of December 2020  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on January 4, 2021)  
State Sources  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
$132,100  
$920,327  
$1,052,428 $1,002,800  
$124,400  
$878,400  
$7,700  
$41,927  
$49,628  
6.2%  
4.8%  
4.9%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$830,622  
$16,676  
$82,202  
$19,392  
-$140  
$825,200  
$10,300  
$69,700  
$20,800  
-$1,100  
$2,000  
-$7,000  
$5,000  
$0  
$3,400  
$4,300  
$2,500  
$0  
$5,422  
$6,376  
$12,502  
-$1,408  
$960  
-$2,000 -100.0%  
$2,021 28.9%  
-$15,034 -300.7%  
$212  
$52  
$158  
-$1,316  
$6,577  
$44  
0.7%  
61.9%  
17.9%  
-6.8%  
87.3%  
$0  
-$4,979  
-$10,034  
$212  
$3,452  
$4,458  
$1,184  
$6,577  
$44  
---  
1.5%  
3.7%  
-52.6%  
---  
$0  
$0  
---  
---  
$0  
$0  
Total Tax Revenue  
$2,002,094 $1,937,900  
$64,194  
3.3%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$0  
$722  
$85  
$0  
$488  
$3,750  
$0  
$235  
-$3,665  
---  
48.1%  
-97.7%  
-80.9%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$808  
$4,238  
-$3,430  
Transfers In  
$5,194  
$0  
$5,194  
$65,958  
---  
3.4%  
Total State Sources  
Federal Grants  
$2,008,096 $1,942,138  
$475,907 $811,519  
$2,484,004 $2,753,657  
-$335,612  
-$269,653  
-41.4%  
-9.8%  
Total GRF Sources  
*
estimate, adjusted for the shift of income tax filings from April (FY 2020) to July (FY 2021)).  
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2020 (H.B. 166  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 2  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 2: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate ($ in thousands)  
FY 2021 as of December 31, 2020  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on January 4, 2021)  
State Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2020**  
Percent  
$886,939  
$5,095,963  
$5,982,902  
$781,500 $105,439  
$4,844,900 $251,063  
$5,626,400 $356,502  
13.5%  
$800,865  
10.7%  
6.4%  
7.0%  
5.2% $4,790,415  
6.3% $5,591,280  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$5,070,702  
$775,275  
$430,119  
$152,531  
$176,497  
$824  
-$19,947  
$50,779  
$19,217  
$31,320  
$28,771  
$2,062  
$4,995,400  
$790,300  
$391,600  
$166,500  
$160,700  
$2,000  
-$30,500  
$67,700  
$22,700  
$27,700  
$25,300  
$4,400  
$0  
$75,302  
-$15,025  
$38,519  
-$13,969  
$15,797  
-$1,176 -58.8%  
$10,553 34.6%  
-$16,921 -25.0%  
-$3,483 -15.3%  
$3,620  
$3,471  
-$2,338 -53.1%  
$6,825  
$59  
$12  
1.5% $4,431,242  
14.4%  
-4.1%  
6.9%  
-7.8%  
2.6%  
-78.5%  
48.8%  
-21.2%  
5.0%  
14.3%  
10.4%  
-49.0%  
-1.9%  
9.8%  
-8.4%  
9.8%  
$808,022  
$402,501  
$165,435  
$171,964  
$3,826  
-$38,958  
$64,445  
$18,293  
$27,413  
$26,053  
$4,041  
13.1%  
13.7%  
$6,825  
$59  
$12  
$12,707,948 $12,250,200 $457,748  
---  
---  
---  
$52 13010.4%  
$0  
$38  
$0  
$0  
---  
-67.1%  
8.8%  
Total Tax Revenue  
3.7% $11,675,646  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$17,577  
$15,538  
$82,952  
$116,068  
$13,750  
$9,447  
$79,101  
$3,827  
$6,091  
$3,851  
$13,769  
27.8%  
64.5%  
4.9%  
$41,498  
$11,304  
$77,395  
$130,197  
-57.6%  
37.4%  
7.2%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$102,298  
13.5%  
-10.9%  
Transfers In  
$85,026  
$77,932  
$7,094  
9.1%  
$75,548  
12.5%  
8.6%  
Total State Sources  
Federal Grants  
$12,909,042 $12,430,430 $478,612  
$6,572,187 $7,208,262 -$636,075  
$19,481,229 $19,638,692 -$157,463  
3.9% $11,881,391  
-8.8% $5,388,345  
-0.8% $17,269,737  
22.0%  
12.8%  
Total GRF SOURCES  
*
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2020 (H.B. 166 estimate, adjusted for the  
shift of income tax filings from April (FY 2020) to July (FY 2021)).  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2020.  
*
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 3  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
1
Revenues  
Jean J. Botomogno, Principal Economist  
Overview  
FY 2021 GRF sources through December of $19.48 billion were $157.5 million (0.8%)  
short of the estimate released by OBM in September 2020. GRF sources consist of state-source  
receipts, which include tax revenue, nontax revenue, and transfers in, and federal grants. In the  
first six months of FY 2021, federal grants posted a negative variance of $636.1 million (8.8%).  
Revenue for this GRF category is related to spending for Medicaid and other human services  
programs; GRF Medicaid expenditures were $539.2 million below estimate through December.  
The shortfall of federal grants was partially offset by positive variances of $457.7 million (3.7%)  
for GRF tax sources, $13.8 million (13.5%) for nontax revenue, and $7.1 million (9.1%) for  
transfers in. Tables 1 and 2 show GRF sources for the month of December and for FY 2021  
through December, respectively.  
Halfway through FY 2021, the sales and use tax, the PIT, and the cigarette tax were  
356.5 million, $75.3 million, and $38.5 million above their respective estimates. However, the  
$
commercial activity tax (CAT) had a year-to-date (YTD) shortfall of $15.0 million, primarily due  
to poor tax payments in August tied to COVID-19-related measures in the spring quarter.2  
Regarding the other taxes, the foreign insurance tax, the financial institutions tax (FIT), the  
alcoholic beverage tax, and the liquor gallonage tax were above their respective YTD revenue  
targets by $15.8 million, $10.6 million, $3.6 million, and $3.5 million. Unexpectedly, the  
corporate franchise tax (CFT) had a YTD positive variance of $6.8 million, with $6.6 million of  
that total coming in December. Though GRF receipts are no longer anticipated because H.B. 510  
th  
of the 129 General Assembly eliminated the CFT at the end of 2013, adjustments to tax filings  
in previous years continue to affect this tax source. The positive variances were partly offset by  
deficits from the public utility tax, the kilowatt-hour tax, the natural gas consumption tax, and  
the petroleum activity tax (PAT). These taxes experienced negative variances of $16.9 million,  
$
14.0 million, $3.5 million, and $2.3 million, respectively.  
December GRF sources were below expectations by $269.7 million (9.8%) due to a  
substantial shortfall of $335.6 million (41.4%) for federal grants and a negative variance of  
3.4 million (80.9%) for nontax revenue. On the other hand, GRF taxes had another good  
month and exceeded the estimate by $64.2 million (3.3%); and, revenue from transfers in was  
5.2 million when none was expected during the month. For the month, the sales and use tax,  
$
$
the cigarette tax, and the PIT were above their anticipated revenue levels by $49.6 million,  
1 This report compares actual monthly and year-to-date (YTD) GRF revenue sources to OBMs  
estimates. If actual receipts were higher than estimate, that GRF source is deemed to have a positive  
variance. Alternatively, a GRF source is deemed to have a negative variance if actual receipts were lower  
than estimate.  
2
To slow the pandemic outbreak, the Governor issued an emergency declaration on  
March 9, 2020, and various public health orders followed, including a stay-at-home requirement and some  
business closures. Those measures reduced economic activity and taxable gross receipts in the spring  
quarter, which was the basis for the tax paid by quarterly CAT taxpayers in August 2020.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 4  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
$
$
12.5 million, and $5.4 million, respectively. The CAT and the FIT also had positive variances of  
6.4 million and $2.0 million, respectively. Negative variances were recorded by the public  
utility tax ($15.0 million), the domestic insurance tax ($2.0 million), the kilowatt-hour tax  
$1.4 million), and the PAT ($1.3 million). Chart 1, below, shows cumulative YTD variances of  
GRF sources in the first half of FY 2021.  
(
Chart 1: Cumulative Variances of GRF Sources in FY 2021  
(Variances from Estimates, $ in millions)  
$
$
$
600  
400  
200  
$0  
-
-
-
-
$200  
$400  
$600  
$800  
Jul-20  
Aug-20  
Sep-20  
Oct-20  
Nov-20  
Dec-20  
Federal Grants  
Tax Revenue  
Total GRF Sources  
First-half GRF sources rose $2.21 billion (12.8%) compared to sources in the  
corresponding period in FY 2020. The growth was due to large increases in federal grants  
$1.18 billion, 22.0%) and tax sources ($1.03 billion, 8.8%). The growth for federal grants was  
(
due in part to a COVID-19-related temporary rise in the share of federal reimbursements for  
Medicaid. This increase, which was authorized by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic  
Security (CARES) Act, accounted for $564.4 million of the $1.18 billion growth in federal grants.  
Transfers in also rose by $9.5 million (12.5%), but nontax revenue fell by $14.1 million (10.9%).  
The growth in GRF tax sources was led by an increase of $639.5 million in PIT revenue and  
$
391.6 million for the sales and use tax. The increase in PIT revenue was primarily due to a delay  
in the tax filing deadline from April until July, as explained in more detail in the PIT section  
below, while sales and use tax revenue has been supported by federal income support  
programs, as explained further in the section on that tax. Growth for the sales and use tax and  
the PIT totaled $1.03 billion. Thus, combined receipts for the remaining taxes were virtually  
unchanged from total revenue from those taxes in FY 2020. Revenue from the cigarette tax, the  
FIT, the CFT, the foreign insurance tax, the alcoholic beverage tax, and the liquor gallonage tax  
increased by $27.6 million, $19.0 million, $6.8 million, $4.5 million, $3.9 million, and $2.7 million,  
respectively. On the other hand, revenue declined for the CAT ($32.7 million), the public utility  
tax ($13.7 million), the kilowatt-hour tax ($12.9 million), the domestic insurance tax  
($3.0 million), and the PAT ($2.0 million).  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 5  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Sales and Use Tax  
The sales and use tax has been stronger than expected YTD in FY 2021, with both  
portions of the tax (i.e., auto and nonauto) exceeding their respective estimates by large  
margins. Through December, FY 2021 revenue totaled $5.98 billion. This amount was  
$
$
sales and use tax revenue of $1.05 billion was $49.6 million (4.9%) above estimate, with both  
portions of the tax above their respective projections. Compared to receipts last year in the  
same month, December 2020 sales and use tax revenue was higher by $94.1 million (9.8%).  
356.5 million (6.3%) above OBM projections. First-half GRF receipts from this tax were also  
391.6 million (7.0%) above receipts in the corresponding period in FY 2020. December GRF  
Various federal income support programs since the spring of 2020 have buttressed  
FY 2021 sales and use tax revenue by offsetting the economic drag from the COVID-19  
3
pandemic. Following a temporary drop in the spring, Ohio retail spending (including online  
purchases, excluding groceries) was estimated to have increased by 12.4% compared to its  
January level. Consumer spending on goods, which is mostly taxable under Ohio sales tax law,  
has been strong, though spending on services (a majority of which is untaxed) has substantially  
lagged. The positive effect of the recovery in Ohio is also likely due to increased employment  
levels among high-wage earners, though employment rates among workers in the bottom wage  
4
quartile has yet to recover to the levels of January and February 2020. A new federal income  
support program was signed into law at the end of December. This new program provides $600  
to most adults and children and is to be distributed in the coming weeks. Though this program  
is smaller than federal personal transfer payment programs enacted earlier in 2020, it may  
provide another boost to consumer spending and sales and use tax in the next few months.  
For analysis and forecasting, revenue from the sales and use tax is separated into two  
parts: auto and nonauto. Auto sales and use tax collections generally arise from the sale of  
motor vehicles, but auto taxes arising from leases are paid at the lease signing and are mostly  
recorded under the nonauto tax instead of the auto tax.  
Nonauto Sales and Use Tax  
YTD FY 2021 GRF nonauto sales and use tax receipts totaled $5.10 billion, an amount  
$
251.1 million (5.2%) above estimate and $305.5 million (6.4%) above revenue in FY 2020  
through December. December receipts of $920.3 million were $41.9 million (4.8%) above  
estimate. The monthly tally was also $81.3 million (9.7%) above revenue in December 2019.  
Generally, a large part of a months nonauto sales and use tax revenue is from tax collection or  
3 To address the economic fallout from COVID-19, the U.S. Congress passed the CARES Act at the  
end of March 2020. The Act included cash payments of up to $1,200 (plus $500 for each child age 16 or  
under) for each qualifying adult, an additional $600 per week on top of any state-provided  
unemployment benefits through July 31, 13 weeks of unemployment benefits above that of each states  
unemployment program, and unemployment benefits for self-employed and gig workers. The payroll  
protection program is a loan program intended to subsidize payroll costs for eight weeks after those  
loans, some of which are forgivable, are made. In the months following passage of the CARES Act, other  
federal support programs have been enacted or modified.  
4 For these purposes, high-wage earners are defined as those earning in excess of $60,000 per year.  
Low-wage earners are those earning below $27,000 per year. Employment rates as of October 15, 2020;  
spending data as of December 6, 2020. Data available at: https://tracktherecovery.org/.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 6  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
tax remittance on taxable sales in the previous month. The future performance of this tax  
source is likely to be dependent on improvement in the Ohio economy and labor markets and  
potential statewide restrictions on economic activity due to high levels of COVID-19 infections.  
Chart 2, below, provides year-over-year growth in nonauto sales and use tax collections  
in 2020. After strong growth at the start of the fiscal year and a sharp drop-off during the  
spring, the chart shows strong growth has returned in the most recent three months.  
Chart 2: Nonauto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
1
0.0%  
5
0
.0%  
.0%  
-
5.0%  
-
-
10.0%  
15.0%  
Auto Sales and Use Tax  
The performance of the auto sales and use tax has been exceptionally strong this fiscal  
year. In the first six months of FY 2021, GRF auto sales and use tax receipts totaled  
$
886.9 million, an amount $105.4 million (13.5%) above estimate and $86.1 million (10.7%)  
above revenue in the first half of FY 2020. Growth of more than 10% from the prior year in the  
absence of any significant tax policy change is unusual. In December, auto sales and use tax  
revenue was $132.1 million, $7.7 million (6.2%) above estimate and $12.7 million (10.7%)  
above such receipts in December 2019. Chart 3, below, shows year-over-year growth in auto  
sales and use tax collections, the pandemic-related revenue declines earlier in the calendar year  
from both low demand and low supply of vehicles, and the subsequent rebound starting in late  
spring. Recently, revenue growth for this tax source has essentially returned to growth rates at  
the start of the calendar year before the pandemic. As with the nonauto portion, the future  
performance of this tax source is likely to be dependent on improvement in the Ohio economy  
and labor markets.  
Cheap credit and high demand for SUVs and pickup trucks have sustained the Ohio auto  
sales and use tax. The pandemic may have led persons avoiding public transportation (either for  
work or leisure) to purchase motor vehicles; and, the increased demand raised vehicle prices.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 7  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 3: Auto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
3
2
1
0.0%  
0.0%  
0.0%  
0
.0%  
-
-
-
-
10.0%  
20.0%  
30.0%  
40.0%  
The increase in the Ohio auto tax base in the first half of FY 2021 relative to the  
corresponding period in FY 2020 was due to a 6.5% increase in the number of motor vehicles  
5
titled, according to data provided by the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles (BMV) shown below.  
Unit purchases of both new and used motor vehicles increased; and, the taxable base for both  
new and used motor vehicles also rose.  
Motor Vehicles Titled in Ohio  
Spending  
YTD FY 2021  
Titles  
Average Price  
(
$ in millions)  
New vehicles  
Used vehicles  
213,852  
$7,992  
$36,361  
$9,539  
928,468  
$9,336  
Total  
1,142,320  
$17,328  
$14,247  
Growth from FY 2020  
New vehicles  
Used vehicles  
8.8%  
6.0%  
$849.2  
$874.8  
2.8%  
4.1%  
4.3%  
Total  
6.5%  
$1,724.0  
5 Titled motor vehicles include passenger vehicles, trucks, motorcycles, and other motor vehicles.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 8  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Also, data provided by the BMV show that new passenger vehicles sales were flat, while  
new truck demand jumped about 10%, and their average prices increased 3% and 7%,  
respectively. In the previously owned vehicle market, the demand for trucks was higher (8%)  
than that of passenger vehicles (2%) and average prices grew 5% and 4%, respectively.  
The U.S. auto industry reported its lowest yearly sales tally in nearly a decade, as the  
fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic flipped over a record run for vehicle sales, though a sharp  
bounce back in demand in the years second half led shoppers to pay record sums for new  
transportation. U.S. auto and light trucks sales totaled 14.5 million units in 2020, roughly 15%  
below sales in 2019, and the decline snapped a five-year stretch in which sales topped  
1
7 million vehicles annually.  
Personal Income Tax  
YTD FY 2021 GRF receipts from the PIT of $5.07 billion were $75.3 million (1.5%) above  
estimate and $639.5 million (14.4%) above such revenue in FY 2020 through December. Though  
this tax source is above estimate for the fiscal year to date, the PIT underperformed in the  
second quarter, being $8.9 million (0.4%) below estimate in the period, a shortfall driven mostly  
by higher than estimated refunds. In the first fiscal quarter, GRF receipts were $84.2 million  
(3.0%) above anticipated revenue.  
The large year-over-year PIT revenue growth (which is expected to decrease over time)  
is directly attributable to the delay of income tax filings from April to July 2020. Excluding July  
receipts, combined PIT GRF revenue was $89.4 million (2.4%) above receipts in the August to  
December period in FY 2020. Among measures designed to combat the impact of the COVID-19  
rd  
pandemic, H.B. 197 of the 133 General Assembly authorized the Tax Commissioner to delay  
various state tax payments, which he did for this tax, to match the extended deadline for  
federal income tax returns. Thus, in July 2020, payments associated with annual returns of  
6
$
501.9 million were $492.5 million above such payments in July 2019; PIT GRF revenue for the  
month was $550.1 million (87.3%) above receipts in July 2019.  
PIT revenue to the GRF is comprised of gross collections, minus refunds and  
distributions to the Local Government Fund (LGF). Gross collections consist of employer  
7
withholdings, quarterly estimated payments, trust payments, payments associated with annual  
returns, and other miscellaneous payments. The performance of the tax is typically driven by  
employer withholdings, which is the largest component of gross collections (about 87% of gross  
collections in FY 2020). Larger or smaller than expected refunds (which decrease gross  
collections) could also greatly affect the monthly performance of the tax.  
December PIT revenue to the GRF of $830.6 million was $5.4 million (0.7%) above  
anticipated revenue. Gross collections were $30.4 million (3.3%) above target, with all  
components above estimates. Employer withholding and quarterly estimated payments had  
positive variances of $17.4 million and $11.1 million, respectively. Taxes due with annual  
returns, miscellaneous payments, and trust payments were above their respective estimates by  
6 In April 2020, this component was $697.8 million below anticipated revenue.  
7 Quarterly estimated payments are made by taxpayers who expect to be underwithheld by  
more than $500. Payments are due in April, June, and September of an individuals tax year and January  
of the following year. Most estimated payments are made by high-income taxpayers.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 9  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
$
0.8 million, $0.7 million, and $0.3 million. Refunds were $24.8 million (50.8%) higher than  
anticipated, and LGF distributions were $0.2 million (0.6%) above expectations.  
For FY 2021 through December, revenues from each component of the PIT relative to  
estimates and revenue received in FY 2020 are detailed in the table below. FY 2021 gross  
collections were $71.9 million above anticipated revenue. Quarterly estimated payments,  
employer withholding, and trust payments were above their projections by $54.8 million,  
$
14.8 million, and $14.4 million, respectively. Those positive variances were partially offset by  
shortfalls of $9.4 million for payments due with annual returns and $2.6 million for  
miscellaneous payments. Refunds were $17.5 million below estimate, but LGF distributions  
were above expectation by $14.1 million, thus resulting in the YTD positive variance of  
$
75.3 million for the GRF.  
Compared to the first half of FY 2020, gross collections have been higher in FY 2021 due  
to the income tax filing delay. They grew $824.2 million, driven by an increase of $594.1 million  
from payments due with annual returns. In addition, quarterly estimated payments, employer  
withholding, and trust payments increased by $150.3 million, $38.8 million, and $43.6 million,  
respectively. On the other hand, miscellaneous payments were $2.6 million lower than in  
FY 2020. Year-over-year growth in withholding receipts in calendar year (CY) 2020 has been  
limited because of a 4.0% reduction in withholding rates effective January 2020 due to the  
reduction of income tax rates for nonbusiness income enacted in H.B. 166. FY 2021 refunds and  
LGF distributions were higher than those in FY 2020 by $168.6 million and $16.1 million,  
respectively. Therefore, growth in PIT GRF revenue totaled $639.5 million relative to YTD  
receipts in FY 2020.  
FY 2021 PIT Revenue Variance and Annual Change by Component  
YTD Variance from Estimate  
Changes from FY 2020  
Category  
Amount  
$ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
Amount  
($ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
(
Withholding  
$14.8  
0.3%  
$38.8  
$150.3  
$43.6  
0.8%  
Quarterly Estimated Payments  
Trust Payments  
$54.8  
$14.4  
-$9.4  
13.1%  
28.4%  
-1.3%  
-7.2%  
1.2%  
46.5%  
201.8%  
452.5%  
-7.2%  
Annual Return Payments  
Miscellaneous Payments  
Gross Collections  
$594.1  
-$2.6  
-$2.6  
$71.9  
-$17.5  
$14.1  
$75.3  
$824.2  
$168.6  
$16.1  
16.2%  
38.6%  
7.5%  
Less Refunds  
-2.8%  
6.5%  
Less LGF Distribution  
GRF PIT Revenue  
1.5%  
$639.5  
14.4%  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 10  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The chart below illustrates the growth of monthly employer withholdings on a  
three-month moving average relative to one year ago. It shows both the actual change in  
withholding receipts in FY 2021 and estimated withholding receipts adjusted for the decrease in  
the withholding tax rate. Payrolls are estimated to have increased about 4.6%, on average, in  
the last three months.  
Chart 4: Monthly Witholding Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
8
6
4
2
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
-
-
-
-
2.0%  
4.0%  
6.0%  
8.0%  
-
-
10.0%  
12.0%  
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20  
Actual Adjusted  
Commercial Activity Tax  
CAT GRF revenue of $16.7 million in December was $6.4 million (61.9%) above estimate  
and $7.7 million (85.1%) above December 2019 revenue, resulting in a better fiscal quarter than  
the first of the fiscal year. First-half GRF receipts from CAT taxpayers totaling $775.3 million  
were $15.0 million (1.9%) below estimate and $32.7 million below GRF revenue in the first six  
months of FY 2020. The CAT had recorded a first-quarter GRF shortfall of $23.5 million; however,  
in the second fiscal quarter, the CAT posted a positive GRF variance of $8.5 million (2.0%).  
Quarterly revenue was also $23.9 million (5.9%) above revenue in the corresponding quarter in  
FY 2020. Thus, the impact on CAT receipts of the COVID-19 pandemic may have been confined to  
the first quarter of FY 2021. YTD FY 2021 gross collections totaled $1.00 billion, a decrease of  
$
credits were $83.2 million, an increase of $16.7 million (25.1%) above those items in FY 2020.  
22.1 million (2.1%) relative to gross collections in FY 2020 through December. Refunds and  
Under continuing law, CAT receipts are deposited into the GRF (85.0%), the School  
District Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7047, 13.0%), and the Local  
Government Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7081, 2.0%). Distributions to  
Fund 7047 and Fund 7081 were $118.6 million and $18.2 million, respectively. The distributions  
to Fund 7047 and Fund 7081 are used to make reimbursement payments to school districts and  
other local taxing units, respectively, for the phase out of property taxes on general business  
tangible personal property. Any receipts in excess of amounts needed for such payments are  
generally transferred back to the GRF.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 11  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Tax  
First-half revenue in FY 2021 from the cigarette and other tobacco products (OTP) tax  
totaling $430.1 million was above estimate by $38.5 million (9.8%). This total included  
$
this tax source in the latest month was outstanding. December receipts of $82.2 million were  
379.6 million from the sale of cigarettes and $50.5 million from the sale of OTP. Revenue from  
$
2
12.5 million (17.9%) above estimate and $9.0 million (12.2%) above revenue in December  
019. Monthly growth relative to last year was almost entirely due to increased cigarette sales.  
Through December, FY 2021 receipts grew $27.6 million (6.9%) relative to revenues in  
the corresponding period in FY 2020. Receipts from cigarette sales and OTP sales increased by  
17.0 million (4.7%) and $10.6 million (26.6%), respectively. The increase in OTP revenue is due,  
$
in part, to additional revenue from the vapor tax. H.B. 166 levied a tax of 10¢ per milliliter (or  
gram) of vapor product (depending on the form of the product) which is defined as any liquid  
solution or other substance that contains nicotine and is depleted as it is used in an electronic  
8
smoking product. The OTP tax is an ad valorem tax, generally 17% of the wholesale price paid  
by wholesalers for the product; thus, revenue from that portion of the tax base (about 9% of  
the total tax base in FY 2020) grows with OTP price increases.  
On a yearly basis, revenue from the cigarette tax usually trends downward, generally at  
a slow pace. However, that historical trend has been suspended since March 2020 by the  
impact on smokers of the COVID-19 pandemic. Smokers are spending less on travel and  
entertainment during the pandemic and thus have more disposable income for cigarettes.  
Fewer social interactions and more time at home allow for more tobacco use occasions. Also,  
some smokers may have switched back to traditional cigarettes due to recent federal  
restrictions on e-cigarette flavors.  
Other Taxes  
Utility-related taxeskilowatt-hour, public utility, and natural gas consumption were  
below their respective estimates in the first half of FY 2021, in part due to decreased energy  
consumption related to closures induced by the COVID-19 pandemic.  
The kilowatt-hour tax generated $152.5 million for the GRF during the first six months of  
the fiscal year. This amount was $14.0 million (8.4%) below estimate and $12.9 million (7.8%)  
below revenue during the comparable months of FY 2020. The performance of the tax is due in  
part to milder weather than expected and lower than anticipated electricity consumption. The  
tax base generally is kilowatt-hours of electricity used, i.e., it generally does not depend on the  
price of electricity. Half of the allocation of GRF tax revenue to the Public Library Fund is  
debited against this tax for accounting purposes, thus bad GRF tax revenue performance overall  
can make the performance of this tax look relatively worse.  
YTD through December, receipts from the public utility tax were $50.8 million,  
$
16.9 million (25.0%) below estimate and $13.7 million (21.2%) lower than during July to  
December 2019. Most receipts from this tax are in the second month of each calendar quarter,  
with the largest receipts usually in May. Deliveries by natural gas utilities account for a large  
8 Of total receipts in FY 2020 of $82.4 million from the sale of OTP, the tax on vapor products  
contributed $3.6 million, or about 4%, according to the Ohio Department of Taxation.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 12  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
part of the total. The drop in revenues from the public utility tax appears to be accounted for by  
9
lower prices paid for natural gas by all types of consumers. Quantities of natural gas consumed  
in the Ohio market were down overall, though consumption by electric power producers  
somewhat grew.  
Receipts from the natural gas consumption tax were $19.2 million in the first half of this  
fiscal year, $3.5 million (15.3%) below estimate but $0.9 million (5.0%) higher than in the  
year-earlier period. Payments in May account for nearly half of annual receipts from this tax in  
most years.  
The foreign insurance tax generated $176.5 million during the first half of FY 2021, an  
amount $15.8 million (9.8%) above estimate, and $4.5 million (2.6%) above receipts in the  
corresponding period in FY 2020. The reason for the jump in collections from this tax source is  
unclear at this time. This tax is paid by insurance companies headquartered in other states  
based on premiums they receive to provide insurance covering risks located in Ohio. But, the  
revenue experience in the first six months generally reveals little about the full fiscal year  
experience from the tax as payments received so far represent advance payments based on  
previous-year tax liabilities before credits.  
Only $0.8 million has been received so far in FY 2021 from the domestic insurance tax  
(paid by insurance companies headquartered in Ohio). That amount was $1.2 million (58.8%)  
below estimate and $3.0 million (78.5%) below revenue in the first six months of FY 2020.  
However, similarly to the foreign insurance tax, the first-half performance says little about the  
full-year experience: virtually all revenue from the tax is received in May and June each fiscal  
year.  
Nontax Revenue  
YTD GRF nontax revenue totaling $116.1 million was $13.8 million (13.5%) above  
estimate but $14.1 million (10.9%) below such revenue in the first six months of FY 2020. The  
year-over-year decline in revenue was entirely due to earnings on investments. FY 2021  
earnings on investments were 57.6% below earnings recorded in the corresponding period last  
year, primarily due to lower federal funds rates implemented by the Federal Reserve in the last  
year and a half.  
9 The following are the four types of consumers: residential, commercial, industrial, and electric  
power generation.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 13  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 3: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of December 2020  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run January 7, 2021)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$572,738  
$187,996  
$2,859  
$567,173  
$184,793  
$3,919  
$5,565  
$3,203  
1.0%  
1.7%  
Other Education  
-$1,060 -27.0%  
$7,708 1.0%  
Total Education  
$763,593  
$755,885  
Medicaid  
$973,624 $1,100,981 -$127,356 -11.6%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
$136,400  
$123,370  
$13,030  
10.6%  
$1,110,024 $1,224,351 -$114,326  
-9.3%  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$158,089  
$27,404  
$165,873  
$44,480  
-$7,784  
-4.7%  
-$17,076 -38.4%  
Total Government Operations  
$185,493  
$210,353  
-$24,860 -11.8%  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$2,132  
$21,991  
$24,123  
$14,977  
$22,190  
$37,167  
-$12,845 -85.8%  
-$199  
-0.9%  
Total Other Expenditures  
-$13,044 -35.1%  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$2,083,234 $2,227,756 -$144,522  
$23,750 $0 $23,750  
$2,106,984 $2,227,756 -$120,772  
-6.5%  
---  
Total GRF Uses  
-5.4%  
*September 2020 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 14  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 4: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2021 as of December 31, 2020  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run January 7, 2021)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2020** Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$4,016,490 $3,990,059  
$1,142,773 $1,151,121  
$26,430  
-$8,348  
-$2,020  
$16,062  
0.7% $4,175,558  
-0.7% $1,132,287  
-3.8%  
0.9%  
Other Education  
$41,339  
$43,359  
-4.7%  
$50,769 -18.6%  
Total Education  
$5,200,602 $5,184,539  
0.3% $5,358,614  
-2.9%  
Medicaid  
$9,657,424 $10,196,641 -$539,218  
$731,732 $780,618 -$48,886  
-5.3% $8,424,866  
14.6%  
-1.5%  
13.3%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
-6.3%  
$742,522  
$10,389,156 $10,977,260 -$588,104  
-5.4% $9,167,388  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$1,283,029 $1,343,379 -$60,350  
-4.5% $1,264,437  
1.5%  
-1.8%  
1.0%  
$217,714  
$252,728 -$35,014 -13.9% $221,776  
Total Government Operations  
$1,500,743 $1,596,107 -$95,364  
-6.0% $1,486,213  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$904,349  
$525,964  
$933,578 -$29,229  
$528,271 -$2,307  
-3.1%  
-0.4%  
$905,289  
-0.1%  
$903,325 -41.8%  
Total Other Expenditures  
$1,430,312 $1,461,849 -$31,536  
-2.2% $1,808,614 -20.9%  
-3.6% $17,820,829 3.9%  
-2.4% $662,799 -34.3%  
-3.6% $18,483,627 2.6%  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$18,520,813 $19,219,755 -$698,941  
$435,225  
$445,900 -$10,675  
Total GRF Uses  
$18,956,038 $19,665,655 -$709,617  
*
*
September 2020 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2020.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 15  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5: Medicaid Expenditures by Department  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on January 8, 2021)  
Month of December 2020  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Year to Date through December 2020  
Department  
Medicaid  
GRF  
Actual  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
$921,002 $1,051,607 -$130,605 -12.4% $9,312,876  
$1,414,524 $1,454,366 -$39,842 -2.7% $4,867,771  
$2,335,526 $2,505,974 -$170,448  
$9,846,807 -$533,932  
$4,968,717 -$100,945  
-5.4%  
-2.0%  
-4.3%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
-6.8% $14,180,647 $14,815,524 -$634,877  
Developmental  
Disabilities  
GRF  
$43,255  
$42,430  
$207,049  
$249,479  
$825  
1.9%  
$292,212  
$292,629  
$1,253,777  
$1,546,406  
-$416  
$60,979  
$60,563  
-0.1%  
4.9%  
3.9%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$178,303  
-$28,746 -13.9% $1,314,757  
-$27,921 -11.2% $1,606,969  
$
221,557  
Job and Family Services  
GRF  
$8,563  
$14,387  
22,950  
$6,012  
$12,361  
$18,373  
$2,552  
$2,026  
$4,577  
42.4%  
16.4%  
24.9%  
$46,326  
$88,477  
$50,995  
$94,914  
-$4,670  
-$6,437  
-9.2%  
-6.8%  
-7.6%  
Non-GRF  
$
$134,803  
$145,910  
-$11,107  
All Funds  
Health, Mental Health and Addiction, Aging, Pharmacy Board, and Education  
GRF  
$805  
$932  
$2,478  
$3,410  
-$127 -13.6%  
$6,010  
$17,275  
$23,285  
$6,210  
$20,872  
$27,082  
-$200  
-3.2%  
Non-GRF  
$4,540  
$2,062  
$1,935  
83.2%  
56.7%  
-$3,597 -17.2%  
-$3,797 -14.0%  
$
5,345  
All Funds  
All Departments:  
GRF  
$973,624 $1,100,981 -$127,356 -11.6% $9,657,424 $10,196,641 -$539,218  
-5.3%  
-0.8%  
-3.6%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$1,611,754 $1,676,254  
-$64,501  
-3.8% $6,288,280 $6,338,280 -$50,001  
-6.9% $15,945,703 $16,534,922 -$589,218  
$2,585,378 $2,777,235 -$191,857  
*September 2020 estimates from the Office of Budget and Management and Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 16  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6: All Funds Medicaid Expenditures by Payment Category  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on January 8, 2021)  
Month of December 2020  
Year-to-Date through December 2020  
Payment Category  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Managed Care  
CFC†  
$1,869,909 $1,849,807  
$20,102  
-$21,601  
-$75,299  
-$9,928  
1.1% $10,682,701 $10,914,994 -$232,293  
-2.1%  
-2.7%  
-6.0%  
-2.0%  
-2.3%  
-2.4%  
37.5%  
$632,526  
$529,559  
$248,694  
$80,532  
$654,127  
$604,858  
$258,622  
$83,704  
-3.3%  
-12.4%  
-3.8%  
-3.8%  
-4.3%  
---  
$3,663,166 $3,764,603 -$101,437  
$3,079,174 $3,275,135 -$195,960  
Group VIII  
ABD†  
$1,505,338 $1,535,479  
$482,979 $494,512  
$1,432,459 $1,467,293  
$519,585  
-$30,141  
-$11,533  
-$34,834  
ABD Kids  
My Care  
-$3,173  
$237,830  
$140,769  
$248,497  
-$10,667  
P4P & Ins Fee†  
$0 $140,769  
$377,973 $141,612  
Fee-For-Service  
ODM Services  
DDD Services  
Hospital -  
HCAP&Other†  
$534,001  
$316,172  
$217,829  
$751,256 -$217,255  
-28.9% $4,261,868 $4,571,421 -$309,553  
-6.8%  
-8.9%  
4.3%  
$367,106  
$235,800  
-$50,934  
-$17,971  
-13.9%  
-7.6%  
$2,078,560 $2,281,923 -$203,363  
$1,560,675 $1,496,681 $63,993  
$
0
$148,350 -$148,350 -100.0%  
$622,633  
$792,816 -$170,184 -21.5%  
Premium Assistance  
Medicare Buy-In  
Medicare Part D  
$104,940  
$70,293  
$34,647  
$95,975  
$61,372  
$34,602  
$8,965  
$8,920  
$45  
9.3%  
14.5%  
0.1%  
$543,986  
$369,771  
$174,215  
$530,121  
$355,536  
$174,585  
$13,865  
$14,236  
-$370  
2.6%  
4.0%  
-0.2%  
Administration  
Total  
$76,528  
$80,197  
-$3,669  
-4.6%  
$457,149  
$518,385  
-$61,237 -11.8%  
$2,585,378 $2,777,235 -$191,857  
-6.9% $15,945,703 $16,534,922 -$589,218 -3.6%  
*September 2020 estimates from the Office of Budget and Management and Department of Medicaid.  
P4P & Ins Fee - Pay For Performance, and Health insurance provider fee.  
CFC - Covered Families and Children; ABD - Aged, Blind, and Disabled; HCAP - Hospital Care Assurance Program;  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 17  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
EMexlanpey Cearnter,dDiriecttorures10  
Ivy Chen, Principal Economist  
Overview  
For the first half of FY 2021, GRF program expenditures totaled $18.52 billion. These  
expenditures were $698.9 million (3.6%) below the estimate released by OBM in early  
September 2020. All program categories, except for Primary and Secondary Education, had  
negative YTD variances at the end of December. The program category with the largest  
negative variance was Medicaid, which had a negative YTD GRF variance of $539.2 million  
(
$
5.3%). Medicaid also had the largest negative variance for the month of December at  
127.4 million (11.6%). It should be noted that Medicaid variances are measured against  
estimates that are approximately $3 billion higher for all-funds Medicaid expenditures for the  
fiscal year than the estimates established when H.B. 166 was enacted. Justice and Public  
Protection had the second largest negative YTD variance at $60.4 million (4.5%). Health and  
Human Services was next with a negative YTD variance of $48.9 million (6.3%). The only positive  
YTD variance was $26.4 million (0.7%) for the Primary and Secondary Education category. YTD  
variances are shown in the preceding Table 4, while Table 3 shows December variances.  
In addition to program expenditures, total uses include transfers out. Transfers out  
totaled $435.2 million YTD and had a negative YTD variance of $10.7 million (2.4%) at the end of  
December. This negative variance fell by $23.8 million in December due to a transfer for that  
amount to the Targeted Addiction Program Fund (Fund 5TZ0) occurring in December instead of  
August as expected.  
Combining program expenditures and transfers out, total GRF uses for the first half of  
FY 2021 were $18.96 billion. These uses were $709.6 million (3.6%) below estimate. The rest of  
this section discusses both GRF and non-GRF variances in Medicaid and the GRF variances in  
Justice and Public Protection, Health and Human Services, and Primary and Secondary  
Education.  
Medicaid  
GRF Medicaid expenditures were below their monthly estimate in December by  
$
127.4 million (11.6%) and below their YTD estimate, by $539.2 million (5.3%), at the end of  
December. Non-GRF Medicaid expenditures were below their monthly estimate, by  
64.5 million (3.8%), and also below their YTD estimate, by $50.0 million (0.8%). Including both  
$
the GRF and non-GRF, all funds Medicaid expenditures were $191.9 million (6.9%) below  
estimate in December and $589.2 million (3.6%) below their YTD estimate at the end of  
December. The Medicaid expenditure and caseload estimates used in this report were updated  
by the Ohio Department of Medicaid (ODM) for FY 2021. These updates were precipitated by  
the COVID-19 pandemic and are thus different from the expenditure and caseload estimates  
10 This report compares actual monthly and YTD expenditures from the GRF to OBMs estimates.  
If a program categorys actual expenditures were higher than estimate, that program category is  
deemed to have a positive variance. The program category is deemed to have a negative variance when  
its actual expenditures were lower than estimate.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 18  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
outlined in H.B. 166. The updated expenditure estimates include approximately $3 billion in  
increases for the fiscal year, related to many impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.  
Table 5 shows GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures for ODM, the Ohio Department  
of Developmental Disabilities (ODODD), and six othersister agencies that also take part in  
administering Ohio Medicaid. ODM and ODODD account for about 99% of the total Medicaid  
budget. Therefore, they generally also account for the majority of the variances in Medicaid  
expenditures. ODM had an all funds negative variance in December of $170.4 million (6.8%),  
and YTD expenditures also were below estimate, with a negative variance of $634.9 million  
(
4.3%). Part of the negative December variance for ODM was due to a scheduled Upper  
Payment Limit payment of $148.3 million which did not go out during the month. ODM did  
make a $141.0 million payment towards the health insurance fee. ODODD had a December all  
funds negative variance of $27.9 million (11.2%) and ended the month with a YTD positive  
variance of $60.6 million (3.9%). The other six sisteragencies Job and Family Services,  
Health, Aging, Mental Health and Addiction Services, State Board of Pharmacy, and Education –  
account for the remaining 1% of the total Medicaid budget. Unlike ODM and ODODD, the six  
sisteragencies incur only administrative spending.  
Table 6 shows all funds Medicaid expenditures by payment category. Expenditures were  
below their YTD estimates for three of the four payment categories as of the end of December.  
Fee-For-Service had the largest negative variance of $309.6 million (6.8%), followed by  
Managed Cares negative variance of $232.3 million (2.1%), and Administrations negative  
variance of $61.2 million (11.8%). Premium Assistance YTD expenditures were above estimate  
by $13.9 million (2.6%).  
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic began to show in March 2020s Medicaid  
caseloads, and the impacts have continued to show through monthly caseload increases since  
March. From March through December of 2020, caseloads have increased by 32,900 cases per  
month, on average. According to ODM, nearly all of the caseload variance has been due to the  
suspension of routine redeterminations of eligibility and an increase in the number of new  
applications and approvals, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on  
updated FY 2021 ODM estimates, Decembers caseload of 3.1 million enrollees is approximately  
2
72,000 cases (8.0%) below estimate.  
Justice and Public Protection  
The Justice and Public Protection program category had a YTD negative variance at the  
end of December of $60.4 million (4.5%). This YTD variance has been gradually building up from  
a series of negative monthly variances from August through December. The negative variance  
for December was $7.8 million (4.7%). Two agencies make up the majority of the negative YTD  
variance the Department of Rehabilitation and Correction (DRC) and the Public Defender  
Commission (PUB).  
DRC had a positive variance in December of $2.5 million, but this was not enough to  
offset negative variances in the previous four months, especially a negative variance of  
$
17.1 million in September and a negative variance of $10.8 million in November. DRCs  
resulting YTD variance for the first six months of FY 2021 was a negative $31.8 million. All but  
one of DRCs appropriation items had negative YTD variances. The most significant was a  
negative YTD variance for item 501321, Institutional Operations, which was below its YTD  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 19  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
estimate by $21.6 million at the end of December. Item 501321 is DRCs main appropriation  
item used to pay for its operating expenses.  
PUB had a negative YTD variance for the first half of FY 2021 of $10.9 million. Most of  
this variance was caused by a negative variance of $8.4 million for the month of December.  
These variances were almost completely driven by appropriation item 019501, County  
Reimbursement, which had a negative December variance of $8.4 million and a negative YTD  
variance of $10.6 million. Item 019501 is used to reimburse counties for their expenditures for  
indigent defense. At least part of the current variance in this item is due to timing issues with  
the reimbursements. No expenditures were made from the item in December.  
Health and Human Services  
The Health and Human Services program category includes all non-Medicaid GRF  
expenditures by several state agencies. This category had a positive variance of $13.0 million  
(10.6%) in December, decreasing its YTD negative variance to $48.9 million (6.3%).  
Job and Family Services  
The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) was responsible for  
$
16.6 million of the YTD negative variance. ODJFSs negative variance decreased significantly in  
December due to a positive variance for the month of $26.7 million. ODJFSs variances were  
dominated by three appropriation items with negative variances partially offset by one  
appropriation item with a positive variance as listed below:  
600535, Early Care and Education, was $5.3 million under estimate in December and  
14.4 million under estimate YTD;  
$
600450, Program Operations, was $3.9 million under estimate in December and  
$9.1 million under estimate YTD;  
600413, Child Care State/Maintenance of Effort, was $3.1 million over estimate in  
December and $7.8 million under estimate YTD;  
600523, Family and Children Services, was $27.5 million over estimate in December and  
$
17.1 million over estimate YTD.  
Items 600535 and 600413 are used to provide publically funded child care. Item 600450  
is used for administrative functions and operating expenses for a number of ODJFSs program  
offices. The uses of item 600523 include providing funding to public children services agencies  
for child protection, supplementing federal Title XX funds provided to counties, and supporting  
foster parents.  
Mental Health and Addiction Services  
The Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services (MHA) had a negative variance  
in December of $11.0 million that increased its negative YTD variance to $15.5 million. MHAs  
negative variance in December came mainly from item 336421, Continuum of Care Services,  
which was under its December estimate by $7.0 million, partially offsetting its positive  
November variance of $8.3 million. For the YTD, this item was $5.6 million under estimate. Item  
3
36421 is mainly used to distribute funds to local boards of alcohol, drug addiction, and mental  
health.  
Budget Footnotes  
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January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Primary and Secondary Education  
The Primary and Secondary Education program category includes all GRF expenditures  
by the Ohio Department of Education (ODE), except for Medicaid and Property Tax  
Reimbursement expenditures. This category had a positive variance of $57.5 million in October,  
another positive variance of $37.8 million in November, and now a positive variance of  
$
negative September variance, resulting in a YTD positive variance of $26.4 million (0.7%). As  
5.6 million (1.0%) in December. These positive variances have more than offset the categorys  
reported in Octobers issue of Budget Footnotes, this category had negative variances of  
$
48.2 million in appropriation item 200550, Foundation Funding, and $30.7 million in  
appropriation item 200573, EdChoice Expansion, in September, due mainly to a timing issue  
related to scholarship payments. With positive variances in October, November, and December,  
item 200573s negative YTD variance has been reduced to $11.5 million. Item 200550 also had  
positive variances in October, November, and December leaving it with a YTD positive variance  
of $55.8 million. Item 200550 is the main source of state funding for local schools.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 21  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Issue Updates  
Internet- and Computer-based Community School Enrollment  
Grows Amid Pandemic  
Nick Ciolli, Budget Analyst  
Enrollment in internet- and computer-based community schools (e-schools) has  
increased substantially in the 2020-2021 school year (FY 2021), as more parents have opted to  
enroll their children in e-schools in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. E-schools have grown  
from an enrollment of 23,300 full-time equivalent (FTE) students at the end of FY 2020 to  
3
4,100 FTE students for FY 2021 (as of December), an increase of 10,800 students, or 46.3%. The  
vast majority of this growth is occurring in the states six general education e-schools, which are  
listed in the table below and whose total enrollment has increased by 10,600 students (54.4%).  
All but one of these schools has astatewide enrollment base, which means that students may  
reside anywhere in Ohio and enroll in the school. Enrollment in the nine dropout prevention and  
recovery (DOPR) e-schools has grown by about 210 students (5.5%). Site-based community  
school enrollment is stable, increasing less than 1% compared to FY 2020.  
While e-school enrollment has increased substantially, no e-school reached its statutory  
enrollment limit in FY 2021. Each e-school has an enrollment limit based on the schools  
enrollment in FY 2013 or 1,000 students if the school opened after FY 2013 and a prescribed rate  
of annual growth that is applied to the prior years enrollment limit (not the prior years FTEs).  
E-school Enrollment Growth, FY 2020-FY 2021  
FTE  
Enrollment Enrollment  
FTE  
Change  
FY2020-FY2021  
% Change  
FY 2020-FY 2021  
Community School  
FY 2020  
11,825  
4,182  
2,025  
843  
FY 2021  
17,727  
5,389  
4,802  
1,288  
642  
Ohio Virtual Academy  
5,902  
1,207  
2,777  
445  
49.9%  
28.9%  
137.2%  
52.7%  
17.5%  
N/A  
Ohio Connections Academy  
Alternative Education Academy  
Great River Connections Academy  
Buckeye On-Line School  
546  
96  
Quaker Preparatory Academy*  
General education e-school subtotal  
DOPR** e-school subtotal  
Total  
0
142  
N/A  
19,422  
3,880  
23,302  
29,989  
4,092  
34,081  
10,567  
212  
54.4%  
5.5%  
10,779  
46.3%  
*
Quaker Preparatory Academy newly opened for FY 2021.  
*The nine DOPR e-schools are not listed in the table.  
*
Budget Footnotes  
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January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
As a result of the enrollment gains, funding for e-schools has also increased significantly.  
E-school funding is slated to grow from $169.0 million in FY 2020 to $235.3 million in FY 2021,  
an increase of $66.3 million (39.2%). Similar to enrollment growth, general education e-schools  
are receiving almost the entirety of the funding increase, as shown in the chart below. Funding  
for e-school students, like that for students attending site-based community schools, is  
1
1
generally deducted from the foundation aid of the students resident district. E-school funding  
is based on the full formula amount of $6,020 and, if applicable, the full per-pupil category  
amounts for special education additional aid and career-technical education funds.  
Chart 5: E-school Funding Transfers by School Education Plan, FY 2020-FY 2021  
$
235.3  
$250  
$200  
$150  
$100  
$
169.0  
$
206.0  
$
141.3  
$
50  
$
27.7  
$29.3  
$
-
FY 2020  
FY 2021  
DOPR E-schools  
General Education E-schools  
ODE Partners with Sandy Hook Promise on Threat Assessment  
Training  
Dan Redmond, Budget Analyst  
On November 23, 2020, ODE announced a partnership with the Sandy Hook Promise  
organization to provide school districts and other public schools with free school violence  
prevention training through the organizations Safety Assessment and Intervention program. The  
rd  
partnership follows the enactment of H.B. 123 of the 133 General Assembly, which requires the  
establishment of threat assessment teams in public schools and completion of an approved  
training program by team members. The six-hour, evidence-based training program is offered at  
no charge to public schools for the FY 2020-FY 2021 school year using grant funding from the  
U.S. Department of Justice. It is designed for multidisciplinary teams to help identify existing gaps  
in school safety policies and codes of conduct and learn how to respond to keep the community  
11 H.B. 123 of the 133rd General Assembly created a pilot program to provide additional funding  
to certain DOPR e-schools in FY 2021. The program is funded directly by a $2.5 million earmark from  
ODE’s FY 2021 GRF foundation funding line item and does not involve deductions and transfers from  
traditional school districts.  
Budget Footnotes  
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January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
safe. This year it will be offered virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Public schools that enroll  
in the training will learn to:  
Identify the threats, signs, and signals of a violent act;  
Determine the seriousness of such threats, signs, and signals; and  
Develop intervention plans to protect potential victims and address the problems  
underlying the threatening behavior.  
The goals of the training program align with Each Child, Our Future, ODEs five-year  
strategic plan for education, which includes a commitment that every child learn in a physically  
and emotionally safe environment. Following the training, Sandy Hook Promise provides  
ongoing support and resources.  
Children Services Transformation Report Released  
Nicholas J. Blaine, Budget Analyst  
On November 20, 2020, the Governor released the Children Services Transformation  
Advisory Councils final report, which includes recommendations for reforming Ohios children  
1
2
services system. One overarching recommendation was to address inequities in the system  
that lead to black and multiracial youths being referred to children services and placed in  
out-of-home care much more often than their white counterparts. The report also made  
3
7 specific recommendations that were grouped into seven core action areas: prevention,  
workforce, practice, kinship, foster care, adoption, and juvenile justice. Some of these include:  
integrating and expanding peer mentoring services, enhancing prenatal-to-three prevention  
and early intervention services, establishing a state-level ombudsman to independently  
investigate and resolve complaints made by or on the behalf of children and families involved  
with children services, and create a multisystem data exchange platform that makes sharing  
state and local data easier. ODJFS will work to implement the recommendations.  
The Children Services Transformation Advisory Council was formed in November 2019  
by the Governor. It consisted of state and local government representatives, as well as public  
members including foster and adoptive parents, kinship care providers, and foster care alums.  
It was tasked with reviewing the foster care system and providing recommendations to  
strengthen all areas of the system. The advisory council held ten forums from November 2019  
to January 2020 to hear from Ohioans about their experiences with children services systems  
and gather their feedback for its improvement. It heard testimony from approximately  
5
00 individuals during this time.  
12  
The full report can be read here: https://governor.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/governor/  
media/news-and-media/children-services-transformation-final-report-11202020.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 24  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Ohio Medicaid Releases Request for Applications for OhioRISE  
Nelson V. Lindgren, Economist  
On October 28, 2020, ODM released its request for applications (RFA) for bidders to  
administer the Ohio Resilience through Integrated Systems and Excellence (OhioRISE) program.  
OhioRISE is a specialized managed care program that will serve children with complex  
behavioral health and multi-system needs. The selected bidder will be responsible for both  
developing and managing a full continuum of behavioral health network providers who have  
the expertise necessary to serve these populations. In addition, the selected bidder will be  
responsible for developing the infrastructure necessary to ensure the integration of physical  
health and behavioral health services. Specifically, OhioRISE will provide intensive care  
coordination services; offer new and enhanced critical services; and assist families, state and  
local child-serving agencies, and other health providers to locate and use services. Program  
objectives are broad and include the following: expand early interventions to reduce  
hospitalization and emergency department use, increase access to community and in-home  
support, increase school attendance, reduce recidivism rates in the juvenile justice system, and  
reduce custody relinquishment and out-of-home placements such as foster care.  
ODM expects 50,000 to 60,000 children will be enrolled in the program. In order to  
receive services a child must be enrolled in Medicaid, be under age 21, and meet a functional  
needs threshold that assesses a childs needs and strengths in different areas including school,  
trauma, mental health needs, and risk behaviors. RFAs had to be submitted to ODM by  
December 16, 2020. ODM estimates the award for the administration of the OhioRISE managed  
care contract will take place in February 2021 and the program will go live on January 1, 2022.  
Ohio Department of Veterans Services Receives $2.6 Million in  
Federal CARES Funding for Veterans Homes  
Shaina Morris, Budget Analyst  
On October 26, 2020, the Controlling Board approved a request from the Department of  
Veterans Services to increase federal appropriation item 900609, Medicare Services, by  
2.6 million in FY 2021. The increase is due to the receipt of federal funding from the CARES  
Act. The states two veterans homes, located in Sandusky (Erie County) and Georgetown  
Brown County), respectively, will use the funds for COVID-19-related expenses, including  
$
(
testing, staffing, and personal protective equipment. Revenue from Medicare reimbursements  
has dropped due to a decline in the resident population and new admissions having been put  
on hold in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.  
As of December 18, 2020, the Department reported that, since its first case,  
84 residents had tested positive for COVID-19, 89 had recovered, and 38 had died. Of its staff  
1
at the homes, the Department reported 139 had tested positive for COVID-19, 108 had  
recovered, and none had died.  
Sandusky and Georgetown have a combined capacity and capability to provide services  
to more than 700 veterans. The Ohio Veterans Home in Sandusky is a 427-bed nursing home  
facility and opened in 1888 to care for veterans of the Civil War. The location also hosts a  
1
22-bed domiciliary. The Ohio Veterans Home in Georgetown offers 168 beds for nursing home  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 25  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
care and opened in 2003. Combined, the two veterans homes are one of the largest nursing  
home systems in the country and the largest in Ohio.  
Ohio EPA Awards $122 Million in Wastewater and Drinking  
Water Infrastructure Loans  
Jamie Doskocil, Fiscal Supervisor  
In November 2020, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (Ohio EPA) announced  
that low-interest and principal forgiveness loans totaling approximately $122 million had been  
awarded to 50 recipients for wastewater and drinking water infrastructure improvement  
projects. Forty-seven of the recipients were units of local government. The loans were  
approved during the third quarter of calendar year 2020 (period ending on September 30).  
More than $11 million of the financing includes principal forgiveness, which means it does not  
have to be repaid. Ohio EPA estimates that loan recipients will save a total of more than  
$
28 million statewide compared to market-rate loans.  
The largest amounts of financing were awarded to the Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer  
District ($17.1 million for multiple wastewater projects), Akron ($16.7 million for three loans for  
public water, and sanitary and sewer projects), Warren County ($15.3 million for upgrades to  
the countys two drinking water plants), and Columbus ($15 million for water plant, storm  
water, and sewer projects). Three of the loan recipients were also awarded project-related  
funding from the H2Ohio program: Pike Water Inc. ($1 million), New Waterford ($500,000), and  
West Milton ($500,000).  
The loans are backed with money drawn from the Ohio Water Pollution Control Loan  
Fund (WPCLF) and the Water Supply Revolving Loan Account (WSRLA). Both funds are managed  
by the Ohio EPA with assistance from the Ohio Water Development Authority. The WPCLF  
provides below-market rate, zero interest rate, and principal forgiveness loans for the planning,  
design, and construction of wastewater treatment facilities and sewer systems. The WSRLA  
provides below-market rate loans to public water systems for the planning, design, and  
construction of improvements to community water systems and nonprofit noncommunity  
public water systems. Both the WPCLF and WSRLA are funded with federal capitalization grants,  
loan repayments, and bond proceeds and were created in 1989 and 1998, respectively.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 26  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Third Quarter Wastewater and Drinking Water Infrastructure Loans  
Geographic  
Area  
Number of  
Loan Recipients  
Principal  
Forgiveness  
Total Estimated  
Savings**  
Total Financing*  
Central  
4
9
$16,000,000  
$50,800,000  
$7,000,000  
$50,0000  
$1,399,000  
$630,492  
$2,300,000  
$8,400,000  
$1,580,000  
$10,900,000  
$5,000,000  
$28,180,000  
Northeast  
Northwest  
Southeast  
Southwest  
11  
19  
7
$18,100,000  
$30,000,000  
$121,900,000  
$8,050,000  
$905,588  
Totals  
50  
$11,035,080  
*
Amounts are approximate due to rounding.  
*Savings includes interest and principal.  
*
ODOT Awards $23.0 Million in Maritime Assistance Program  
Grants to Port Authorities in FY 2020-FY 2021 Biennium  
Tom Middleton, Senior Budget Analyst  
In November 2020, the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) released a report  
summarizing the allocation of all $23.0 million in grant funding appropriated under the  
Maritime Assistance Program created by H.B. 166.13 In total, 13 projects received grant funding  
at four port authorities, as summarized in the table below.  
Under the competitive grant program, ODOT awarded grants to port authorities that  
own active marine cargo terminals located on the shore of Lake Erie, a Lake Erie tributary, or  
the Ohio River. Grants were awarded to projects that will have a significant local or regional  
impact on Ohios logistics supply chain, and a minimum 50% match in funds. Projects receiving  
grant support include those to purchase transloading equipment and to construct  
infrastructure and facilities, including dock walls, roads, mooring cells, sediment processing  
facilities, ore tunnel extensions, and intermodal transportation infrastructure.  
13  
The ODOT report is available for download at: https://www.transportation.ohio.gov/  
wps/portal/gov/odot/programs/maritime-freight/resources/ohio-martime-awards.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 27  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Maritime Assistance Program Grant Recipients, FY 2020-FY 2021  
%
Funding of  
Total Project  
Grant  
Number of  
Grants  
Total Grant  
Funding  
Total Project  
Funding  
Port Authority  
Cleveland-Cuyahoga County  
Toledo-Lucas County  
Columbiana County  
Monroe County  
5
4
$9.7 million  
$10.1 million  
$1.7 million  
$1.5 million  
$23.0 million  
$36.1 million  
$26.1 million  
$3.5 million  
$3.0 million  
$68.7 million  
26.8%  
38.5%  
50.0%  
50.0%  
33.5%  
3
1
Total  
13  
Funding for the program was sourced from the Facilities Establishment Fund (Fund  
037), typically used by the Development Services Agency (DSA) for business loans, via a  
7
transfer of $23.0 million from Fund 7037 to the Ohio Maritime Assistance Fund (Fund 5QT0).  
Development Services Agency Awards $26.5 Million in Ohio  
Historic Preservation Tax Credits  
Shannon Pleiman, Senior Budget Analyst  
On December 17, 2020, the Development Services Agency approved 25 awards totaling  
26.5 million in Round 25 of the Ohio Historic Preservation Tax Credits (OHPTC) Program. These  
$
awards will be used for the rehabilitation of 53 historic buildings. The table below displays the  
awards by region, including the number of awards, total value of awards, total project costs,  
and the average percentage of the project cost covered by the award in each region.  
Ohio Historic Preservation Tax Credit Awards, Round 25  
Number of  
Awards  
Total Value of  
Awards  
Total Project  
Costs  
Award as % of  
Total Project Costs  
Region  
Northeast  
Southwest  
Northwest  
Central  
8
14  
1
$12,819,242  
$11,315,433  
$1,639,451  
$748,957  
$118,269,747  
$115,070,920  
$10,019,305  
$15,997,973  
$259,357,945  
10.8%  
9.8%  
16.4%  
4.7%  
2
Total  
25  
$26,523,083  
10.2%  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 28  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The OHPTC Program is designed to spur investment within historic areas, restore  
buildings that will attract new businesses, and generate new jobs. To be eligible, generally a  
building must be listed on the National Register of Historic Places or designated as a local  
landmark by a certified local government. The program is administered through a partnership  
between DSA and the Ohio History Connection. Each year, $60.0 million is allocated to the  
program; however, an additional amount in tax credits may be awarded if projects that were  
previously approved under the program have been withdrawn, or if there is a surplus of tax  
credits from prior fiscal years. DSA awards two rounds of funding each year. Round 26 project  
applications are due March 31, 2021, and the awards will be announced by the end of June. The  
tax credits can be claimed against the applicable income tax, financial institutions tax, and  
foreign and domestic insurance premium taxes.  
DNR Begins Chronic Wasting Disease Response Plan After  
Infection in Wild Deer Specimen Confirmed in Wyandot County  
Tom Wert, Senior Budget Analyst  
On December 14, 2020, the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) announced that  
Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) had been detected in tissue samples from a deer harvested by  
a hunter on private property in Wyandot County. CWD is a contagious and fatal neurological  
disease in deer and elk that has been documented in wild deer populations in 26 states  
including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and West Virginia. As a result of this first documented  
positive case among the wild herd in Ohio, DNR will implement its CWD response plan which  
includes enhanced surveillance within a 10-mile radius of the CWD positive deer location in  
Wyandot County and mandatory sampling of deer harvested during controlled hunts at Killdeer  
Plains Wildlife Area. Additionally, DNR will contact all hunters who harvest a deer in Wyandot  
County during the remaining 2020-2021 deer hunting season to obtain samples for testing. The  
2
020-2021 deer hunting season ends February 7, 2021.  
DNR has conducted CWD surveillance in Ohios wild deer populations since 2002. But  
with cases of CWD in wild deer populations so close to Ohios borders, DNR expanded its  
020-2021 testing program significantly. Under a previous agreement, Colorado State  
University (CSU) was slated to test 1,200 hunter harvested or road killed wild deer in  
020-2021. The number of tests was increased to 4,000 under a contract approved by the  
2
2
Controlling Board on October 26, 2020. The cost per sample under both the previous and new  
contracts totaled $19 per sample. Funding for the testing is supported by the Wildlife Fund  
(Fund 7015) which receives revenue primarily from the sale of hunting and fishing licenses and  
permits and federal sportfish and wildlife restoration grants.  
Budget Footnotes  
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Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
TErric Maakcelak, Eiconnomgist the Economy  
Overview  
National economic recovery slowed in recent months, as the nation and its people  
navigate a health crisis amidst economic tumult. Nonfarm payroll employment declined by  
40,000 in December, and the nations unemployment rate remained at 6.7%. Nationally,  
1
personal income decreased in November in conjunction with a decline in unemployment  
insurance payments and proprietorsincomes as pandemic-related support waned.  
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) increased 7.5% in the third quarter of 2020  
after dropping 9.0% during the second quarter.14 Industrial production rose 0.4% in November,  
though the level of production in major market groups is still below its level from a year prior.  
Ohio employers added 29,400 jobs in November, with job gains in the service sector  
slightly offset by job losses in the goods producing sector. From October to November, the  
seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point, to 5.7%. The number of  
Ohioans receiving unemployment benefits during the last full week of 2020 (153,423) was  
1
48.3% greater than during the same week of 2019. The states real GDP increased 8.2% in the  
third quarter of 2020, snapping two consecutive quarters of decline in the indicator. The  
housing market has remained heated through most of 2020, as the YTD average sale price of an  
existing home in Ohio was 9.5% greater in 2020 than in 2019.15  
The National Economy  
The number of nonfarm payroll jobs in the United States tumbled by 140,000 in  
December, though the national unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%. According to the  
Bureau of Labor Statistics, the decline in payroll employment reflected the recent resurgence in  
COVID-19 cases and efforts to contain the pandemic. Chart 6 shows nonfarm payroll  
employment and Chart 7 displays unemployment.  
During the month, the leisure and hospitality industry was most affected, with  
seasonally adjusted employment decreasing by 498,000, mostly at restaurants and bars, but  
also at amusement, gambling, and recreation venues and at hotels and motels. Recovery  
continued in a number of other industries. In December, employment in professional and  
business services increased by 161,000. Other industries to add payroll employment in  
December included retail trade (+121,000), construction (+51,000), and transportation and  
warehousing (+47,000), the last of these mostly due to further gains in couriers and  
messengers.  
Between December 2019 and December 2020, payroll employment in both the  
goods-producing (-784,000, -3.7%) and private service-providing (-7,312,000, -6.8%) sectors  
declined. Within the goods-producing sector, manufacturers of both durable goods  
(
1
-391,000, -4.8%) and nondurable goods (-166,000, -3.5%) culled payrolls during those  
2 months. Within the service-providing sector, industries including transportation and  
14 Percentages are from quarter to quarter, not at annualized rates.  
15 Data, according to the Ohio Association of Realtors, as of November 2020.  
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January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
warehousing (-67,100, -1.2%), financial services (-71,000, -0.8%), and professional and technical  
services (-159,300, -1.6%) retained comparatively high percentages of their workers during the  
year leading up to December 2020. Major industries such as leisure and hospitality (-3,825,000,  
-
market change during this time period. Between December 2019 and December 2020, average  
weekly earnings rose in all major industry groups except leisure and hospitality.  
22.8%) and education and health services (-1,173,000, -4.8%) underwent more sizable labor  
National production, as measured by real GDP, increased by a seasonally adjusted 7.5%  
1
6
during the third quarter of 2020. Consumption of goods by persons rose a seasonally adjusted  
1
2
5
0.2% during the quarter, while consumer services increased 8.4%. From the second quarter of  
020 to the third quarter, nonresidential fixed investment increased by a seasonally adjusted  
.3% while residential fixed investment was up 13.0%.  
Personal income decreased by a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in November, the result of a  
decline in proprietorsincome (-8.5%) and personal current transfer receipts (-3.3%).17 In the  
private sector, wages and salaries rose a seasonally adjusted $39.4 billion (+0.5%).  
Unemployment insurance payments decreased $27.1 billion (-8.9%). Seasonally adjusted  
personal saving decreased for the seventh consecutive month in November (-6.4%), after a  
drastic rise in March and April of this year. Real personal consumption expenditures fell by a  
seasonally adjusted 0.4% in November; spending on both goods (-1.0%) and services (-0.2%)  
declined.  
Nationally, aggregate industrial production increased by 0.4% in November; among  
major industry groups, a decrease in utilities (-4.3%) production was more than offset by  
increases in manufacturing (+0.8%) and mining (+2.3%) output.18 A ramp-up in production of  
motor vehicles and parts accounted for approximately half the months total increase in  
manufacturing output. From November 2019 to November 2020, the total production of  
durables manufacturers decreased 4.3% nationwide, with increases among computer and  
electronic products manufacturers (+1.5%) offset by drops in most other major categories. The  
decline in nondurables manufacturing (-2.6%) during the same period was driven by mixed  
gains and losses in production among food, beverage, and tobacco products manufacturers  
(+1.5%), paper producers (+1.2%), petroleum and coal products producers (-14.0%), chemical  
makers (-2.9%), plastics and rubber products manufacturers (-2.7%), and other industries.  
Consumer prices increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in November, as measured by  
the consumer price index (CPI) for all items. During the month, the national price index for food  
decreased 0.1%, while the price index for energy increased 0.4%. During November, the CPI  
level for all goods was 1.2% greater than a year prior. The index for all items less the more  
volatile food and energy categories rose 1.6% over the 12 months leading up to November.  
16 See footnote 14.  
17  
Personal current transfer receipts are nonwage income and include Social Security,  
Medicare/Medicaid, and unemployment insurance. This category also includes federal stimulus  
payments and any federal supplements to state unemployment benefits.  
18 As measured by the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production Index.  
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P a g e | 31  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 6: U.S. and Ohio Nonfarm Payroll Employment  
(
in millions)  
1
1
1
1
1
1
53.9  
48.5  
43.1  
37.7  
32.3  
26.9  
5.7  
5.5  
5.3  
5.1  
4.9  
4.7  
2
016  
2017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
U.S. Employment  
Ohio Employment (right scale)  
Chart 7: U.S. and Ohio Unemployment Rates  
% of Labor Force  
18.0%  
15.0%  
12.0%  
9
6
3
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
2
016  
2017  
2018  
2019  
Ohio  
2020  
United States  
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P a g e | 32  
January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The Ohio Economy  
Ohios economy added a seasonally adjusted 29,400 nonfarm payroll jobs in November,  
a 0.6% increase in jobs from the previous month. During the month, employment losses in  
manufacturing (-2,000, -0.3%) and other (miscellaneous) services (-1,600, -0.8%) were more  
than offset by seasonally adjusted gains in leisure and hospitality (+11,300, +2.6%), professional  
and business services (+7,400, +1.1%), and health care and social assistance (+5,000, +0.6%).  
Year over year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in both the goods-producing  
(-41,900, -4.5%) and service-providing (-294,400, -6.3%) sectors. As of November, the Ohio  
private industries that shed the greatest percentage of their November 2019 workforces were  
leisure and hospitality (-20.3%), educational services (-13.4%), mining and logging (-13.0%), and  
real estate and rental and leasing (-11.1%). Between November 2019 and November 2020,  
employment by government entities declined at all levels, with the number of job holders in  
federal (-1.7%), state (-14.2%), and local (-4.2%) governments all notably down in Ohio. Chart 6  
displays nonfarm employment totals nationally and in Ohio over the past several years.  
Ohios seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined from October to November,  
when it was 5.7%. Chart 7 displays the states unemployment rate. The number of initial  
unemployment claims during the final full week of 2020 was 81% greater than in the  
year-earlier week but 89% below this years peak weekly number of initial claims. In the prior  
week, Ohio registered 153,423 continued unemployment insurance claims, 148% above the  
number of continued claims during the year-earlier week of 2019.19  
It should be noted that the Census Bureaus survey of establishments, which provide the  
primary data for state employment counts, is conducted for the pay period that includes the  
th  
1
2 of each month. As a result, Ohios employment data do not reflect observance of additional  
COVID-19 restrictions between that period and the date of this publication.  
According to recently released quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis  
BEA), Ohios real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.2% in the third quarter of  
(
2
changes not annualized). During the third quarter, Ohios real GDP growth ranked 14 in the  
020, after decreases in real GDP in the first (-1.4%) and second (-9.5%) quarters (percent  
th  
nation; growth in other Great Lakes states, such as Michigan (third), Indiana (fifth), and  
2
0
Wisconsin (ninth) also was relatively rapid. On an annualized rate basis, GDP growth increased  
rapidly in every state during the quarter, with growth rates ranging from 19.4% (Wyoming) to  
5
2.2% (Nevada).  
The number of small businesses operating in Ohio decreased during 2020. Womply, an  
integrated business platform for small businesses, reports Ohio-specific data on small business  
conditions.2 The number of Ohio small businesses having at least one transaction in the last  
1
19 Initial claims measure how many new applicants filed for unemployment benefits during the  
week; continued claims measure how many persons filed to continue receiving unemployment benefits.  
Data are provided to the Department of Labor by the ODJFS.  
20 The following states are included in BEA’s definition of the Great Lakes region: Illinois, Indiana,  
Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  
21 Data according to Track the Recovery Project: https://tracktherecovery.org/. Small businesses  
are defined as those with under 100 or 150 employees, with the threshold varying by industry.  
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January 2021  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
three business days declined 28.7% from the January indexing period to December 9. Small  
business revenue in Ohio declined 30.2% during the same time period. Revenue declined by  
1
also down in professional and business services (-12.6%), education and health services (-  
6.9% for small businesses in transportation and retail industries; small business revenue was  
3
3.1%), and leisure and hospitality (-64.8%).  
Existing home unit sales were 14.2% greater in November 2020 than in November 2019,  
according to the Ohio Association of Realtors. Through November, the number of existing home  
sales was 3.1% above the level in 2019, and the average sale price was 9.5% greater. The YTD  
total dollar volume of existing home sales was 12.9% higher in 2020 than last year, a trend  
which suggests a significant increase in demand for houses in the state during the year.  
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January 2021