A monthly newsletter of the Legislative Budget Office of LSC  
Volume: Fiscal Year 2021  
Issue: November 2020  
Highlights  
Ross Miller, Chief Economist  
October GRF tax revenue was $85 million above the estimate published by the  
Office of Budget and Management (OBM) in September 2020. Strong sales and use  
tax receipts accounted for $84 million of that. The net positive variance of about  
$
having been $16 million below estimate. For FY 2021 through October, GRF tax  
revenue was $347 million above estimate. GRF Medicaid expenditures were  
1 million for all other tax sources was despite personal income tax (PIT) revenue  
$
were about $20 million above estimate.  
430 million below estimate in October. On net, other GRF program expenditures  
Ohio nonfarm payroll employment grew by 41,500 from August to September,  
but it was 403,700 lower in September than in September 2019. Private sector  
employment was 352,500 lower than the prior year, due in large part to the leisure  
and hospitality sector (down 131,000).  
Through October 2020, GRF sources totaled $13.56 billion:  
Revenue from the sales and use tax was $267.9 million above estimate;  
PIT receipts were $67.8 million above estimate.  
Through October 2020, GRF uses totaled $13.58 billion:  
Program expenditures were $725.6 million below estimate;  
GRF Medicaid expenditures were $545.6 million below estimate;  
Expenditures in all other program categories were below estimates, most  
notably Health and Human Services ($67.2 million) and Justice and Public  
Protection ($40.8 million).  
In this issue...  
More details on GRF Revenues (p. 2), Expenditures (p. 12),  
the National Economy (p. 26), and the Ohio Economy (p. 29).  
Also Issue Updates on:  
OhioMHAS CARES Funding for Behavioral Health Impacts of COVID-19 (p. 20  
CARES Funding for Mental Health Assistance at Institutions of Higher Education (p. 20)  
Pandemic-Electronic Benefit Transfer Program (p. 21)  
School District Facility Plans Completed in FY 2020 (p. 22)  
Federal Victims of Crime Act Victim Assistance Grants (p. 23)  
H2Ohio Funding for Lead Service Line Replacement (p. 24)  
Testing for Disease in Ohios Deer (p. 25)  
Cemetery Grant Program (p. 25)  
Available online at: www.lsc.ohio.gov/Budget Central  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 1: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of October 2020  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on November 2, 2020)  
State Sources  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
$138,843  
$837,486  
$976,329  
$131,800  
$760,500  
$892,300  
$7,043  
$76,986  
$84,029  
5.3%  
10.1%  
9.4%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$697,610  
$83,502  
$76,803  
$30,056  
$168,815  
$0  
-$12,174  
$4,015  
$29  
$5,692  
$4,642  
$0  
$16  
$0  
$714,000  
$75,100  
$77,600  
$30,500  
$163,100  
$0  
-$13,600  
$3,000  
$600  
$3,900  
$4,000  
$0  
$0  
$0  
-$16,390  
$8,402  
-$797  
-$444  
$5,715  
$0  
$1,426  
$1,015  
-$571 -95.1%  
$1,792  
$642  
$0  
$16  
$0  
-2.3%  
11.2%  
-1.0%  
-1.5%  
3.5%  
---  
10.5%  
33.8%  
45.9%  
16.1%  
---  
---  
---  
$0  
$0  
$0  
---  
Total Tax Revenue  
$2,035,335 $1,950,500  
$84,835  
4.3%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$17,576  
$2,600  
$832  
$13,750  
$737  
$876  
$3,826  
$1,863 252.9%  
-$44  
27.8%  
-5.0%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$21,009  
$15,363  
$5,645  
36.7%  
Transfers In  
$0  
$0  
$0  
---  
Total State Sources  
Federal Grants  
$2,056,344 $1,965,863  
$90,480  
4.6%  
$1,056,255 $1,325,494 -$269,239 -20.3%  
$3,112,598 $3,291,357 -$178,759 -5.4%  
Total GRF Sources  
*
estimate, adjusted for the shift of income tax filings from April (FY 2020) to July (FY 2021)).  
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2020 (H.B. 166  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 2  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 2: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate ($ in thousands)  
FY 2021 as of October 31, 2020  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on November 2, 2020)  
State Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2020**  
Percent  
11.2%  
6.4%  
7.1%  
$626,066  
$3,327,643  
$3,953,709  
$541,600  
$3,144,200  
$3,685,800  
$84,466  
$183,443  
$267,909  
15.6%  
5.8% $3,128,047  
7.3% $3,691,049  
$563,002  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$3,603,427  
$431,101  
$272,796  
$112,236  
$175,660  
$824  
-$16,152  
$35,355  
$13,720  
$21,238  
$19,381  
$878  
$3,535,600  
$446,200  
$250,100  
$120,100  
$171,500  
$0  
-$20,700  
$34,800  
$16,800  
$18,300  
$16,900  
$1,900  
$0  
$67,827  
-$15,099  
$22,696  
-$7,864  
$4,160  
$824  
$4,548  
$555  
-$3,080 -18.3%  
$2,938  
$2,481  
-$1,022 -53.8%  
$287  
$15  
$12  
1.9% $2,998,430  
20.2%  
-8.0%  
6.1%  
-5.9%  
0.1%  
-3.4%  
9.1%  
-6.5%  
2.4%  
---  
$468,707  
$257,005  
$119,227  
$175,429  
$1 164666.6%  
22.0%  
1.6%  
-$26,788  
39.7%  
1.3%  
3.1%  
23.8%  
12.2%  
-51.1%  
8217.3%  
---  
-69.0%  
11.0%  
$34,886  
$13,304  
$17,158  
$17,278  
$1,796  
-$4  
16.1%  
14.7%  
$287  
$15  
$12  
$8,624,487 $8,277,300  
---  
---  
---  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$38  
Total Tax Revenue  
$347,187  
4.2% $7,767,514  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$17,577  
$14,096  
$82,053  
$113,726  
$13,750  
$8,338  
$72,973  
$3,827  
$5,759  
$9,080  
$18,666  
27.8%  
69.1%  
12.4%  
19.6%  
$41,457  
$9,465  
$71,220  
-57.6%  
48.9%  
15.2%  
-6.9%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$95,061  
$122,143  
Transfers In  
$79,832  
$77,932  
$1,900  
2.4%  
$75,548  
5.7%  
10.7%  
36.0%  
18.4%  
Total State Sources  
Federal Grants  
$8,818,046 $8,450,293  
$367,753  
4.4% $7,965,205  
-7.6% $3,488,919  
-0.2% $11,454,124  
$4,743,542 $5,134,970 -$391,428  
$13,561,587 $13,585,262 -$23,675  
Total GRF SOURCES  
*
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2020 (H.B. 166 estimate, adjusted for the shift  
of income tax filings from April (FY 2020) to July (FY 2021)).  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2020.  
*
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 3  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
1
Revenues  
Jean J. Botomogno, Principal Economist  
Overview  
FY 2021 GRF sources through October of $13.56 billion were $23.7 million (0.2%) below  
the estimate released by OBM in September 2020, due to a negative variance of $178.8 million  
(
5.4%) in the latest month. In the first fiscal quarter, GRF sources had posted a cumulative positive  
variance of $155.1 million. GRF sources consist of state-source receipts, which include tax  
revenue, nontax revenue, and transfers in, and federal grants. Federal grants were the only GRF  
category posting a year-to-date (YTD) negative variance with a shortfall of $391.4 million (7.6%).  
Revenue for this GRF category is related to spending for Medicaid and other human services  
programs; GRF Medicaid expenditures were $545.6 million below estimate through October. The  
negative variance of federal grants was large enough to offset positive variances of $347.2 million  
(
transfers in. Tables 1 and 2 show GRF sources for the month of October and for FY 2021 through  
October, respectively.  
4.2%) for GRF tax sources, $18.7 million (19.6%) for nontax revenue, and $1.9 million (2.4%) for  
Through the end of October, three of the four largest tax sources had positive  
performances. The sales and use tax, the PIT, and the cigarette tax were $267.9 million,  
$
67.8 million, and $22.7 million above their respective estimates. However, the commercial  
activity tax (CAT) had a shortfall of $15.1 million due to poor tax payments in August tied to  
2
COVID-19-related measures in the spring quarter. Total revenues for the remaining GRF tax  
sources were $3.8 million above the combined estimate. The financial institutions tax (FIT), the  
foreign insurance tax, the alcoholic beverage tax, and the liquor gallonage tax were above their  
respective YTD revenue targets by $4.5 million, $4.2 million, $2.9 million, and $2.5 million. On  
the other hand, the kilowatt-hour tax, the natural gas consumption tax, and the petroleum  
activity tax experienced negative variances of $7.9 million, $3.1 million, and $1.0 million,  
respectively.  
A negative variance of GRF sources in the month of October was due to a large shortfall  
of $269.2 million (20.3%) for federal grants. That shortfall was partially offset by positive  
variances of $84.8 million (4.3%) for GRF taxes and $5.6 million (36.7%) for nontax revenue. No  
transfers in occurred or were expected during the month. The sales tax, which was $84.0 million  
above estimate, contributed nearly the entire positive variance for GRF tax sources. The CAT was  
also above estimate, by $8.4 million, but the PIT and the cigarette tax posted shortfalls of  
$
16.4 million and $0.8 million, respectively. Also above estimates were the foreign insurance tax  
($5.7 million), the alcoholic beverage tax ($1.8 million), the FIT ($1.4 million), and the public  
1 This report compares actual monthly and year-to-date (YTD) GRF revenue sources to OBMs  
estimates. If actual receipts were higher than estimate, that GRF source is deemed to have a positive  
variance. Alternatively, a GRF source is deemed to have a negative variance if actual receipts were lower  
than estimate.  
2 To slow the pandemic outbreak, the Governor issued an emergency declaration on March 9, 2020,  
and various public health orders followed, including a stay-at-home requirement and some business  
closures. Those measures reduced economic activity and taxable gross receipts in the spring quarter, which  
was the basis for the tax paid by quarterly CAT taxpayers in August 2020.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 4  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
utility tax ($1.0 million). Aggregate receipts from the remaining taxes were $0.4 million below  
the combined estimate. Chart 1, below, shows cumulative YTD variances of GRF sources in the  
first four months of FY 2021.  
Chart 1: Cumulative Variances of GRF Sources in FY 2021  
(
Variances from Estimates, $ in millions)  
$
$
$
$
400  
300  
200  
100  
$0  
-
-
-
-
-
$100  
$200  
$300  
$400  
$500  
Jul-20  
Aug-20  
Tax Revenue  
Sep-20  
Oct-20  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF Sources  
Compared to the corresponding revenue in FY 2020 through October, YTD GRF sources  
3
rose $2.11 billion (18.4%), due to large increases in federal grants ($1.25 billion, 36.0%) and tax  
sources ($857.0 million, 11.0%). Transfers in also rose by $4.3 million (5.7%), but nontax revenue  
fell by $8.4 million (6.9%). The growth in GRF tax sources was led by an increase of $605.0 million  
in PIT revenue and $262.7 million for the sales and use tax. The increase in PIT revenue was  
primarily due to a delay in the tax filing deadline from April until July, as explained in more detail  
in the PIT section below, while sales tax revenue has been supported by federal income support  
programs, as explained further in the section on that tax. Also, revenue from the cigarette tax,  
the FIT, the alcoholic beverage tax, and the liquor gallonage tax increased by $15.8 million,  
$
for the CAT ($37.6 million) and the kilowatt-hour excise tax ($7.0 million).  
10.6 million, $4.1 million, and $2.1 million, respectively. On the other hand, revenue declined  
Sales and Use Tax  
Through October, FY 2021 revenue from the sales and use tax totaled $3.95 billion. This  
amount was 7.3% above OBM projections and 7.1% above receipts in the corresponding period  
in FY 2020. In September, the sales and use tax was on target, and in October, this tax source  
outperformed anticipated revenue. October GRF sales and use tax revenue of $976.3 million was  
$
their respective estimates. Compared to receipts last year in the same month, October sales tax  
revenue was higher by $29.3 million (3.1%).  
84.0 million (9.4%) above estimate, with both portions of the tax (i.e., auto and nonauto) above  
3 This growth is primarily due to a COVID-19-related temporary increase in the share of federal  
reimbursements for Medicaid. The increase was authorized by the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and  
Economic Security (CARES) Act. The increased federal reimbursement accounted for $370.9 million of the  
$
1.25 billion growth in federal grants, according to the Ohio Administrative Knowledge System (OAKS).  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 5  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
As mentioned in a previous edition of Budget Footnotes, a decrease in employee  
compensation during 2020s second quarter was more than offset by the increase in  
4
unemployment compensation payments and other personal transfer receipts. In addition, the  
sales and use tax received a more recent boost from the Lost Wages Supplement Payment  
Assistance (LWA) Program for individuals who are partially or totally unemployed because of  
COVID-19. Certain beneficiaries of the earlier additional $600 per week federal unemployment  
benefits (provided under the CARES Act), which generally expired at the end of July, started  
receiving retroactive LWA payments the week of September 14, 2020. The LWA payments were  
distributed in individual $300 payments over a period of several days for all weeks the claimants  
qualified, up to $1,800. Though nationwide hiring growth has slowed recently, inflation-adjusted  
consumer spending had steadily increased since the spring quarter, especially spending for home  
improvement or remodeling, and spending on household goods. This increased consumer  
spending has sustained sales and use tax revenue in FY 2021.  
For analysis and forecasting, revenue from the sales and use tax is separated into two  
parts: auto and nonauto. Auto sales and use tax collections generally arise from the sale of motor  
vehicles, but auto taxes arising from leases are paid at the lease signing and are mostly recorded  
under the nonauto tax instead of the auto tax.  
Nonauto Sales and Use Tax  
YTD FY 2021 GRF nonauto sales and use tax receipts totaled $3.33 billion, an amount  
$
183.4 million (5.8%) above estimate and $199.6 million (6.4%) above revenue in FY 2020  
through October. The fiscal performance of the nonauto sales and use tax has been good due to  
the income support from the federal fiscal response to the pandemic, the recovery in the labor  
market during the summer, and stronger than expected consumer spending on durable goods.  
After a shortfall of $13.7 million in the previous month, October receipts of $837.5 million were  
$
77.0 million (10.1%) above estimate. The monthly tally was also $34.8 million (4.3%) above  
revenue in October 2019. Generally, a large part of a months nonauto sales and use tax revenue  
is from tax collection or tax remittance on taxable sales in the previous month. The future  
performance of this tax source is likely to be dependent on continued improvement in the Ohio  
economy and labor markets, any additional federal personal transfer payments, and potential  
new statewide restrictions on economic activity due to a rise in COVID-19 infections.  
Chart 2, below, provides year-over-year growth in nonauto sales and use tax collections  
since January 2020. After strong growth of 17% in July, the chart shows growth has returned to  
a more measured pace in recent months.  
4 To address the economic fallout from COVID-19, the U.S. Congress passed the CARES Act at the  
end of March 2020. The Act included cash payments of up to $1,200 (plus $500 for each child age 16 or  
under) for each qualifying adult, an additional $600 per week on top of any state-provided unemployment  
benefits through July 31, 13 weeks of unemployment benefits above that of each states unemployment  
program, and unemployment benefits for self-employed and “gig” workers. The payroll protection  
program is a loan program intended to subsidize payroll costs for eight weeks after those loans, some of  
which are forgivable, are made. In the months following passage of the CARES Act, other federal support  
programs have been enacted or modified.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 6  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 2: Nonauto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
1
0.0%  
5
0
.0%  
.0%  
-
5.0%  
-
-
10.0%  
15.0%  
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20  
Auto Sales and Use Tax  
The auto sales and use tax posted a strong positive variance of nearly 19% in the first fiscal  
quarter; through October, FY 2021 auto sales and use tax receipts of $626.1 million were  
$
84.5 million (15.6%) above estimate and $63.1 million (11.2%) above revenue in the  
corresponding period in FY 2020. In October, auto sales and use tax revenue was $138.8 million,  
7.0 million (5.3%) above estimate but $5.5 million (3.8%) below such receipts in October 2019.  
$
Chart 3, below, shows year-over-year growth in auto sales and use tax collections, the  
pandemic-related revenue declines earlier in the calendar year from both low demand and low  
supply of vehicles, and the subsequent rebound starting in late spring. Recently, revenue growth  
for this tax source may have returned to potentially more sustainable rates, similar to growth  
rates at the start of the calendar year before the pandemic.  
Chart 3: Auto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
3
2
1
0.0%  
0.0%  
0.0%  
0
.0%  
-
-
-
-
10.0%  
20.0%  
30.0%  
40.0%  
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 7  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Cheap credit and high demand for SUVs and pickup trucks drove the bounce back of the  
auto industry from lows in the spring quarter. In addition to the federal fiscal income support and  
improvement in labor markets, the pandemic may have led persons avoiding public  
transportation (either for work or leisure) to purchase motor vehicles. As mentioned in the  
previous edition of Budget Footnotes, the increase in the Ohio auto tax base in FY 2021 relative  
to the corresponding period in FY 2020 was due to an increase in the number of motor vehicles  
titled and increases in the taxable base for both new and used vehicles.  
Personal Income Tax  
YTD FY 2021 GRF receipts from the PIT of $3.60 billion were $67.8 million (1.9%) above  
estimate and $605.0 million (20.2%) above such revenue in the first four months of FY 2020. This  
large year-over-year growth is directly attributable to the delay of income tax filings from April  
to July 2020. Excluding July receipts, combined PIT GRF revenue in the last three months was  
$
54.9 million (2.3%) above receipts in the August to October period in FY 2020. Among measures  
rd  
designed to combat the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, H.B. 197 of the 133 General  
Assembly authorized the Tax Commissioner to delay various state tax payments, which he did for  
this tax, to match the extended deadline for federal income tax returns. Thus, in July 2020,  
payments associated with annual returns of $501.9 million were $492.5 million above such  
5
payments in July 2019; PIT GRF revenue for the month was $550.1 million (87.3%) above receipts  
in July 2019.  
PIT revenue to the GRF is comprised of gross collections, minus refunds and distributions  
to the Local Government Fund (LGF). Gross collections consist of employer withholdings,  
6
quarterly estimated payments, trust payments, payments associated with annual returns, and  
other miscellaneous payments. The performance of the tax is typically driven by employer  
withholdings, which is the largest component of gross collections (about 87% of gross collections  
in FY 2020). Larger or smaller than expected refunds (which decrease gross collections) could also  
greatly affect the monthly performance of the tax. The income tax filing delay introduced some  
volatility in the monthly trends of most PIT components. However, this volatility for payments  
with annual returns and for refunds is expected to decrease in the coming months as taxpayers  
continue to file tax year 2019 tax returns.  
October PIT revenue to the GRF of $697.6 million was $16.4 million (2.3%) below  
anticipated revenue. Gross collections were $18.8 million (2.2%) below target, driven by  
shortfalls in quarterly estimated payments ($9.4 million), employer withholding ($7.7 million),  
and miscellaneous payments ($2.1 million). Those negative variances were partially offset by  
positive variances of $0.3 million for taxes due with annual returns and $0.1 million for trust  
payments. Refunds and transfers to the LGF were $1.8 million and $0.6 million, respectively,  
below their anticipated levels.  
For FY 2021 through October, revenues from each component of the PIT relative to  
estimates and revenue received in FY 2020 are detailed in the table below. FY 2021 gross  
collections were $32.5 million above projections. Quarterly estimated payments and trust  
5 In April 2020, this component was $697.8 million below anticipated revenue.  
6 Quarterly estimated payments are made by taxpayers who expect to be underwithheld by more  
than $500. Payments are due in April, June, and September of an individuals tax year and January of the  
following year. Most estimated payments are made by high-income taxpayers.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 8  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
payments were above their respective projections by $43.3 million and $14.0 million,  
respectively. Those positive variances were partially offset by shortfalls of $10.6 million for  
employer withholding, $9.1 million for payments due with annual returns, and $5.2 million for  
miscellaneous payments. Refunds were $49.2 million below estimate, but LGF distributions were  
above expectation by $13.9 million, thus resulting in the YTD positive variance of $67.8 million  
for the GRF.  
Compared to the corresponding YTD period last year, gross collections grew  
$
756.0 million, driven by an increase of $589.0 million from payments due with annual returns.  
In addition, quarterly estimated payments and trust payments increased by $145.3 million and  
44.8 million, respectively. On the other hand, employer withholding and miscellaneous  
$
payments were $17.8 million and $5.3 million lower than in FY 2020, respectively. Year-over-year  
growth in withholding receipts in calendar year (CY) 2020 is limited because of a 4.0% reduction  
in withholding rates effective January 2020 due to H.B. 166s reduction of income tax rates for  
nonbusiness income. FY 2021 refunds and LGF distributions were higher than those in FY 2020  
by $133.4 million and $17.6 million, respectively. Therefore, growth in PIT GRF revenue totaled  
$
605.0 million relative to YTD receipts in FY 2020.  
FY 2021 PIT Revenue Variance and Annual Change by Component  
YTD Variance from Estimate Changes from FY 2020  
Category  
Amount  
$ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
Amount  
($ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
(
Withholding  
-$10.6  
$43.3  
$14.0  
-$9.1  
-0.4%  
11.5%  
28.2%  
-1.3%  
-20.8%  
0.8%  
-$17.8  
$145.3  
$44.8  
-0.6%  
Quarterly Estimated Payments  
Trust Payments  
52.9%  
236.3%  
524.2%  
-20.9%  
21.9%  
42.6%  
12.7%  
20.2%  
Annual Return Payments  
Miscellaneous Payments  
Gross Collections  
$589.0  
-$5.3  
-$5.2  
$32.5  
-$49.2  
$13.9  
$67.8  
$756.0  
$133.4  
$17.6  
Less Refunds  
-9.9%  
9.7%  
Less LGF Distribution  
GRF PIT Revenue  
1.9%  
$605.0  
The chart below illustrates the growth of monthly employer withholdings on a  
three-month moving average relative to one year ago. It shows both the actual change in  
withholding receipts in FY 2021 and estimated withholding receipts adjusted for the decrease in  
the withholding tax rate. Payrolls are estimated to have increased about 1.7%, on average, in the  
last three months (without any adjustment for tax rates). However, compared to the same month  
a year ago, payroll growth in October 2020 was negative.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 9  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 4: Monthly Witholding Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
8
6
4
2
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
-
-
-
-
2.0%  
4.0%  
6.0%  
8.0%  
-
-
10.0%  
12.0%  
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20  
Actual  
Adjusted  
Commercial Activity Tax  
YTD GRF receipts from CAT taxpayers were $431.1 million, $15.1 million (3.4%) below  
estimate. October receipts to the GRF from the CAT were $83.5 million, an amount $8.4 million  
(
11.2%) above estimate, which decreased a recorded first-quarter shortfall of $23.5 million.  
Though not a big month for the CAT, the October performance may suggest a good revenue  
outcome in November. That payment by quarterly calendar taxpayers will be based on taxable  
gross receipts from the July to September quarter, which probably experienced a rebound from  
the lows from the previous quarter. Manufacturing output, industrial production, and other  
measures which drive CAT revenue have all improved, though they may still be below their  
year-ago levels. The first quarterly payment for FY 2021 in August of $278.1 million, based on  
taxable gross receipts from the April to June quarter, was short of estimate by $30.4 million. Due  
to a poor first fiscal quarter, YTD GRF revenue from the CAT was $37.6 million (8.0%) below  
receipts in the corresponding period in FY 2020. Gross collections totaled $567.2 million, a  
decrease of $32.6 million (5.4%), relative to gross collections in FY 2020 through October. Refunds  
and credits were $56.4 million, an increase of $11.9 million (26.8%) above those items in FY 2020.  
Under continuing law, CAT receipts are deposited into the GRF (85.0%), the School District  
Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7047, 13.0%), and the Local Government  
Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7081, 2.0%). The distributions to Fund 7047 and  
Fund 7081 are used to make reimbursement payments to school districts and other local taxing  
units, respectively, for the phase out of property taxes on general business tangible personal  
property. Any receipts in excess of amounts needed for such payments are generally transferred  
back to the GRF.  
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Tax  
YTD through October, FY 2021 revenue from the cigarette and other tobacco products  
OTP) tax totaling $272.8 million was above estimate by $22.7 million (9.1%). This total included  
(
$
238.0 million from the sale of cigarettes and $34.8 million from the sale of OTP. For the month  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 10  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
of October, receipts from this tax source of $76.8 million were $0.8 million (1.0%) below estimate  
and $0.8 million (1.0%) below revenue in October 2019.  
Through October, FY 2021 receipts grew $15.8 million (6.1%) relative to revenues in the  
corresponding period in FY 2020. Receipts from cigarette sales and OTP sales increased by  
$
8.5 million (3.7%) and $7.2 million (26.3%), respectively. The increase in OTP revenue is due, in  
part, to additional revenue from the vapor tax. H.B. 166 levied a tax of 10¢ per milliliter (or gram)  
of vapor product (depending on the form of the product) which is defined as any liquid solution  
or other substance that contains nicotine and is depleted as it is used in an electronic smoking  
7
product. The OTP tax is an ad valorem tax, generally 17% of the wholesale price paid by  
wholesalers for the product; thus, revenue from that portion of the tax base (about 9% of the  
total tax base) grows with OTP price increases.  
On a yearly basis, revenue from the cigarette tax usually trends downward, generally at a  
slow pace. However, that historical trend has been suspended since March 2020 by the impact  
on smokers of the COVID-19 pandemic. Smokers are spending less on travel and entertainment  
during the pandemic and thus have more disposable income for cigarettes. Fewer social  
interactions and more time at home allow for more tobacco use occasions. Also, some smokers  
may also have switched back to traditional cigarettes due to recent federal restrictions on  
e-cigarette flavors.  
7 Of total receipts in FY 2020 of $82.4 million from the sale of OTP, the tax on vapor products  
contributed $3.6 million, or about 4%, according to the Ohio Department of Taxation.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 11  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 3: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of October 2020  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run November 6, 2020)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$369,571  
$191,039  
$9,574  
$312,121  
$197,138  
$9,749  
$57,450  
-$6,099  
-$175  
18.4%  
-3.1%  
-1.8%  
9.9%  
Other Education  
Total Education  
$570,184  
$519,008  
$51,176  
Medicaid  
$1,452,705 $1,882,249 -$429,544 -22.8%  
$143,809 $190,842 -$47,033 -24.6%  
$1,596,514 $2,073,091 -$476,577 -23.0%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$282,608  
$53,956  
$294,257  
$52,220  
-$11,649  
$1,736  
-4.0%  
3.3%  
Total Government Operations  
$336,564  
$346,477  
-$9,913  
-2.9%  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$321,903  
$66,042  
$295,879  
$66,071  
$26,024  
-$29  
8.8%  
0.0%  
7.2%  
Total Other Expenditures  
$387,945  
$361,950  
$25,995  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$2,891,207 $3,300,526 -$409,319 -12.4%  
$77 $9,000 -$8,923 -99.1%  
$2,891,284 $3,309,526 -$418,242 -12.6%  
Total GRF Uses  
*September 2020 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 12  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 4: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2021 as of October 31, 2020  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run November 6, 2020)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2020** Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$2,765,321 $2,782,221  
-$16,900  
-$12,481  
-$337  
-0.6%  
-1.6%  
-1.0%  
$2,861,890  
$739,145  
$37,743  
-3.4%  
2.5%  
$757,277  
$34,953  
$769,758  
$35,290  
Other Education  
-7.4%  
-2.2%  
Total Education  
$3,557,551 $3,587,268  
-$29,717  
-0.8% $3,638,778  
Medicaid  
$6,717,927 $7,263,483 -$545,556  
$473,729 $540,893 -$67,165 -12.4%  
$7,191,655 $7,804,376 -$612,721  
-7.5%  
$5,434,467  
$512,919  
23.6%  
-7.6%  
20.9%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
-7.9% $5,947,387  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$964,628 $1,005,408  
$156,589 $175,430  
$1,121,217 $1,180,838  
-$40,780  
-4.1%  
$866,957  
$152,721  
11.3%  
2.5%  
-$18,841 -10.7%  
Total Government Operations  
-$59,621  
-5.0% $1,019,678  
10.0%  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$820,883  
$477,663  
$842,312  
$479,761  
-$21,429  
-$2,098  
-2.5%  
-0.4%  
$851,362  
-3.6%  
$853,499 -44.0%  
Total Other Expenditures  
$1,298,546 $1,322,073  
-$23,526  
-1.8% $1,704,861 -23.8%  
-5.2% $12,310,704 7.0%  
-7.7% $661,667 -37.8%  
-5.3% $12,972,371 4.7%  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$13,168,970 $13,894,556 -$725,586  
$411,475 $445,900 -$34,425  
$13,580,445 $14,340,456 -$760,011  
Total GRF Uses  
*
*
September 2020 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2020.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 13  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5: Medicaid Expenditures by Department  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on November 8, 2020)  
Month of October 2020  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Year to Date through October 2020  
Department  
Medicaid  
GRF  
Actual  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
$1,392,177 $1,817,929 -$425,752 -23.4% $6,485,818  
$761,614 $762,920 -$1,305 -0.2% $2,876,766  
$2,153,791 $2,580,849 -$427,058 -16.5% $9,362,583  
$7,021,431 -$535,614  
-7.6%  
-1.6%  
-5.9%  
Non-GRF  
$2,923,609 -$46,844  
$9,945,041 -$582,458  
All Funds  
Developmental Disabilities  
GRF  
$52,185  
189,793  
241,978  
$53,002  
$185,919  
$238,921  
-$817  
$3,874  
$3,057  
-1.5%  
2.1%  
$198,951  
$900,271  
$199,819  
$814,971  
-$868  
$85,299  
$84,431  
-0.4%  
10.5%  
8.3%  
$
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$
1.3% $1,099,222  
$1,014,790  
Job and Family Services  
GRF  
$6,843  
$15,142  
21,985  
$10,191  
$20,582  
$30,772  
-$3,348 -32.9%  
-$5,439 -26.4%  
-$8,787 -28.6%  
$28,816  
$55,145  
$83,961  
$37,929  
$67,408  
-$9,113 -24.0%  
-$12,263 -18.2%  
-$21,376 -20.3%  
Non-GRF  
$
$105,337  
All Funds  
Health, Mental Health and Addiction, Aging, Pharmacy Board, and Education  
GRF  
$1,500  
$2,077  
$1,127  
$2,822  
$3,950  
$373  
-$745 -26.4%  
-$372 -9.4%  
33.1%  
$4,342  
$11,116  
$15,458  
$4,304  
$13,490  
$17,794  
$38  
0.9%  
Non-GRF  
-$2,374 -17.6%  
-$2,336 -13.1%  
$
3,578  
All Funds  
All Departments:  
GRF  
$1,452,705 $1,882,249 -$429,544 -22.8% $6,717,927 $7,263,483 -$545,556  
$968,627 $972,243 -$3,616 -0.4% $3,843,297 $3,819,479 $23,818  
2,421,332 $2,854,492 -$433,160 -15.2% $10,561,224 $11,082,962 -$521,738  
-7.5%  
0.6%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$
-4.7%  
*September 2020 estimates from the Office of Budget and Management and Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 14  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6: All Funds Medicaid Expenditures by Payment Category  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on November 8, 2020)  
Month of October 2020  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Year to Date through October 2020  
Payment Category  
Actual  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
$
1,675,943 $2,055,824 -$379,880  
-18.5%  
-1.6%  
-9.3%  
-3.1%  
-3.8%  
-3.8%  
$6,834,324  
$2,433,766  
$2,035,952  
$1,005,684  
$322,206  
$956,250  
$80,466  
$7,276,476 -$442,152  
-6.1%  
-2.2%  
-2.6%  
-1.2%  
-1.6%  
-1.8%  
Managed Care  
CFC†  
$603,614  
508,515  
$249,454  
79,870  
$234,490  
$613,652  
$560,557  
$257,405  
$83,020  
-$10,038  
-$52,042  
-$7,951  
-$3,149  
-$9,228  
$2,487,342  
$2,091,303  
$1,018,407  
$327,340  
-$53,576  
-$55,351  
-$12,723  
-$5,133  
$
Group VIII  
ABD†  
$
ABD Kids  
My Care  
P4P†  
$243,717  
$974,111  
-$17,861  
$
0
$297,473 -$297,473 -100.0%  
$377,973 -$297,507 -78.7%  
$
563,878  
$607,929  
$375,462  
$232,467  
$0  
-$44,051  
-$47,163  
$3,112  
$0  
-7.2%  
-12.6%  
1.3%  
---  
$3,087,112  
$1,394,596  
$1,069,856  
$622,660  
$3,115,325  
$1,487,241  
$983,618  
-$28,213  
-$92,645  
$86,239  
-$21,807  
-0.9%  
-6.2%  
8.8%  
Fee-For-Service  
ODM Services  
DDD Services  
Hospital - HCAP† &  
Other  
$328,300  
$235,579  
$0  
$644,466  
-3.4%  
Premium Assistance  
Medicare Buy-In  
Medicare Part D  
$95,091  
$93,926  
$58,817  
$1,164  
$1,226  
1.2%  
2.1%  
$344,353  
$239,410  
$340,120  
$234,645  
$4,233  
$4,765  
1.2%  
2.0%  
$
60,043  
$
35,047  
$35,109  
-$62  
-0.2%  
$104,943  
$105,475  
-$532  
-0.5%  
$
86,420  
$96,813  
-$10,393  
-10.7%  
$295,435  
$351,042  
-$55,606 -15.8%  
Administration  
Total  
$2,421,332 $2,854,492 -$433,160  
-15.2% $10,561,224 $11,082,962 -$521,738 -4.7%  
*September 2020 estimates from the Office of Budget and Management and Department of Medicaid  
P4P - Pay For Performance  
CFC - Covered Families and Children; ABD - Aged, Blind, and Disabled; HCAP - Hospital Care Assurance Program;  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 15  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
EMexlanpey Cearnter,dDiriecttorures8  
Ivy Chen, Principal Economist  
Overview  
FY 2021 GRF program expenditures totaled $13.17 billion at the end of October. These  
expenditures were $725.6 million (5.2%) below the estimate released by OBM in early September  
020. All program categories had negative YTD variances at the end of October. The program  
2
category with the largest negative variance was Medicaid, which had a negative YTD GRF variance  
of $545.6 million (7.5%), largely due to a negative variance of $429.5 million (22.8%) in October.  
It should be noted that these variances are measured against estimates that are approximately  
$
3 billion higher for all funds Medicaid expenditures for the fiscal year than the estimates  
established when H.B. 166 was enacted. Health and Human Services had the second largest  
negative YTD variance at $67.2 million (12.4%), which, like Medicaid, was largely due to a  
negative variance in October ($47.0 million, 24.6%). Two categories that had large negative  
variances and were reported on in last months Budget Footnotes Primary and Secondary  
Education and Property Tax Reimbursements had positive variances in October that reduced  
their YTD negative variances. The negative YTD variance for Primary and Secondary Education fell  
by $57.5 million to $16.9 million (0.6%). The negative YTD variance for Property Tax  
Reimbursements fell by $26.0 million to $21.4 million (2.5%). YTD variances are shown in the  
preceding Table 4, while Table 3 shows October variances.  
In addition to program expenditures, total uses include transfers out. Transfers out totaled  
$411.5 million YTD and had a negative YTD variance of $34.4 million (7.7%) at the end of October.  
Combining program expenditures and transfers out, total GRF uses for FY 2021 were $13.58 billion  
at the end of October. These uses were $760.0 million (5.3%) below estimate. The rest of this  
section discusses both GRF and non-GRF variances in Medicaid and the GRF variances in Health and  
Human Services, Primary and Secondary Education, and Property Tax Reimbursements.  
Medicaid  
GRF Medicaid expenditures were below their monthly estimate in October by  
$
429.5 million (22.8%) and below their YTD estimate by $545.6 million (7.5%) at the end of  
October. Non-GRF Medicaid expenditures were also below their monthly estimate, by  
3.6 million (0.4%), which brought YTD expenditures to $23.8 million (0.6%) above estimate.  
Including both the GRF and non-GRF, all funds Medicaid expenditures were $433.2 million  
15.2%) below estimate in October and $521.7 million (4.7%) below their YTD estimate at the end  
$
(
of October. The Medicaid expenditure and caseload estimates used in this report were updated  
by the Ohio Department of Medicaid (ODM) for FY 2021. These updates were precipitated by the  
COVID-19 pandemic and are thus different from the expenditure and caseload estimates outlined  
in H.B. 166. The updated expenditure estimates include approximately $3 billion in increases for  
the fiscal year, related to many impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.  
8 This report compares actual monthly and YTD expenditures from the GRF to OBMs estimates. If  
a program categorys actual expenditures were higher than estimate, that program category is deemed  
to have a positive variance. The program category is deemed to have a negative variance when its actual  
expenditures were lower than estimate.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 16  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5 shows GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures for ODM, the Ohio Department  
of Developmental Disabilities (ODODD), and six othersister agencies that also take part in  
administering Ohio Medicaid. ODM and ODODD account for about 99% of the total Medicaid  
budget. Therefore, they generally also account for the majority of the variances in Medicaid  
expenditures. ODM had an all funds negative variance in October of $427.1 million (16.5%) and  
YTD expenditures were also below estimate, with a negative variance of $582.5 million (5.9%).  
ODODD had an all funds positive variance of $3.1 million (1.3%) in October and ended the month  
with a YTD positive variance of $84.4 million (8.3%). The other six sister agencies Job and  
Family Services, Health, Aging, Mental Health and Addiction Services, State Board of Pharmacy,  
and Education account for the remaining 1% of the total Medicaid budget. Unlike ODM and  
ODODD, the six sisteragencies incur only administrative spending.  
Table 6 shows all funds Medicaid expenditures by payment category. Expenditures were  
below their YTD estimates for three of the four payment categories as of the end of October.  
Managed Care had the largest negative variance of $442.2 million (6.1%), followed by  
Administrations negative variance of $55.6 million (15.8%) and Fee-For-Services negative  
variance of $28.2 million (0.9%). Premium Assistance YTD expenditures were above estimate by  
$
4.2 million (1.2%).  
In March, Congress passed three acts to allocate additional federal funding to states for  
several programs to address the COVID-19 pandemic. These three acts are: the Coronavirus  
Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act (signed March 6), the Families First  
Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA, March 18), and the CARES Act (March 27). The second act  
passed by Congress, the FFCRA, increases the federal medical assistance percentage (FMAP) by  
6
.2 percentage points for certain Medicaid expenditures incurred after January 1, 2020, and  
9
throughout the duration of the COVID-19 emergency. To qualify for the increase, a state must  
do the following: (1) maintain eligibility standards or procedures that are no more restrictive than  
those in place on January 1, 2020, (2) not charge premiums that exceed those in place on  
January 1, 2020, (3) provide testing, services, and treatments including vaccines, specialized  
equipment, and therapies related to COVID-19 without cost-sharing requirements, (4) provide  
continuous coverage to individuals enrolled onto the program during the emergency period,10  
and (5) not require local political subdivisions to pay a greater portion of the nonfederal share of  
expenditures than was required on March 11, 2020.  
The Medicaid program is jointly funded by states and the federal government. The federal  
share for most Medicaid expenditures is determined by a states FMAP, which is calculated  
annually for each state using a formula established in federal statute.11 However, there are  
exceptions to the regular FMAP formula for certain services and populations. In general, the  
9 The increased FMAP is available for each calendar quarter occurring during the emergency. The  
U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services declared COVID-19 an emergency on January 31, 2020. Thus,  
the increase is available for qualifying expenditures incurred on or after January 1, 2020, through the end  
of the quarter in which the emergency ends.  
10 States cannot terminate Medicaid coverage for individuals enrolled onto the program during  
the emergency period unless the individual voluntarily terminates eligibility or is no longer a resident of  
the state.  
11 The statute considers a state’s per capita income for the three most recent years relative to the  
nation’s per capita income over the same time period.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 17  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
6
.2 percentage point increase applies only to those Medicaid expenditures subject to the regular  
FMAP and not to expenditures made for these exceptions. As a result, the increase does not apply  
to administrative expenditures or service expenditures for the expansion population under the  
Affordable Care Act (typically referred to asGroup VIII), among others. Ohios FMAP was  
6
because of the FFCRA. Ohios FMAP is 63.6% from October 1, 2020, through September 30, 2021,  
3.02% from October 1, 2019, through September 30, 2020, and temporarily increased to 69.22%  
and is currently temporarily increased to 69.8% because of the FFCRA. In October, this  
6
.2 percentage point FMAP increase represented approximately $107.5 million in increased  
federal funding for Ohio Medicaid. The majority of this increased funding was for GRF funds  
($93.0 million), with the remaining $14.5 million going to non-GRF funds.  
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic began to show in Marchs Medicaid caseloads, and  
the impacts have continued to show through monthly caseload increases since March. From  
March through October of 2020, caseloads have increased by 36,100 cases per month, on  
average. According to ODM, nearly all of the caseload variance has been due to the suspension  
of routine redeterminations of eligibility and an increase in the number of new applications and  
approvals, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on updated FY 2021  
ODM estimates, Octobers caseload of 3.1 million enrollees is approximately 112,600 cases  
(3.5%) below estimate.  
Health and Human Services  
The Health and Human Services program category includes all non-Medicaid GRF  
expenditures by several state agencies. This category had a negative variance of $47.0 million  
(
24.6%) in October, adding to an existing negative variance from August and resulting in a YTD  
negative variance of $67.2 million (12.4%). The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services  
ODJFS) was responsible for $44.8 million of the October variance and $39.3 million of the YTD  
variance. ODJFSs variances were dominated by two appropriation items as listed below:  
(
600523, Family and Children Services, was $29.5 million under estimate in October and  
$16.0 million under estimate YTD;  
600413, Child Care State/Maintenance of Effort, was $10.1 million under estimate in  
October and $10.9 million under estimate YTD.  
The uses of item 600523 include providing funding to public children services agencies for  
child protection, supplementing federal Title XX funds provided to counties, and supporting  
foster parents. Item 600413 is used to provide publically funded child care.  
Primary and Secondary Education  
The Primary and Secondary Education program category includes all GRF expenditures by  
the Department of Education (ODE), except for Medicaid and Property Tax Reimbursement  
expenditures. This category had a positive variance of $57.5 million (18.4%) in October, partially  
offsetting its negative September variance and resulting in a YTD negative variance of  
$
16.9 million (0.6%). As reported in last months issue of Budget Footnotes, this category had  
negative variances of $48.2 million in appropriation item 200550, Foundation Funding, and  
30.7 million in appropriation item 200573, EdChoice Expansion, in September, due mainly to a  
$
timing issue related to scholarship payments. As expected, these negative variances have begun  
to be reversed. Item 200550 had a positive variance of $49.1 million in October, leaving it with a  
YTD positive variance of $5.9 million. Item 200573 had a positive variance of $10.1 million in  
October, leaving it with a YTD negative variance of $20.5 million.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 18  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
This category of GRF expenditures reimburses school districts and other local  
governments for their property tax losses due to property tax rollbacks and the homestead  
exemption. Reimbursements are made twice a year. The current payment is based on a property  
tax settlement conducted in August. Reimbursements will be made as counties request them  
through December. Since payments are made at the request of the counties, this category often  
has variances at the beginning of a cycle that are offset as the cycle draws to a close. At the end  
of August, this category was under estimate by $105.2 million (42.8%). Positive variances of  
$
variance, resulting in a negative YTD variance of $21.4 million (2.5%) at the end of October, which  
57.7 million (19.2%) in September and $26.0 million (8.8%) in October partially offset Augusts  
should decrease even more by the end of the calendar year.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 19  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Issue Updates  
OhioMHAS Receives $11.5 Million in Federal CARES Funding  
Ryan Sherrock, Economist  
On September 28, 2020, the Controlling Board approved a total of $11.5 million in federal  
funding for the Ohio Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services (OhioMHAS) to respond  
to behavioral health impacts relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. The funds come from the federal  
CARES Act. Of this amount, $10.0 million will be deposited into the Coronavirus Relief Fund (Fund  
5
CV1) and the remaining $1.5 million will be deposited into the Governors Emergency Education  
Relief Fund (Fund 3HQ0). The funds in Fund 5CV1 will be used to support COVID-19 response efforts  
and to strengthen the continuum of care in three primary areas: visibility and access to services,  
psychiatric inpatient and crisis care, and supports for those in recovery. Specific project examples  
include: increasing inpatient capacity by reimbursing local boards for indigent patients who receive  
care at inpatient private psychiatric hospitals;12 promoting the Ohio CareLine, a 24/7 helpline  
staffed with licensed clinicians who direct people to appropriate mental health services; training  
and recruiting peer supporters in nontraditional settings such as homeless shelters and emergency  
departments; and increasing community screening and referral events to afford all community  
members with the opportunity to be screened for behavioral health conditions. The funds in  
Fund 3HQ0 will be used in partnership with state and local entities to identity strategies to meet  
the mental health and alcohol/drug use needs of higher education communities. Strategies will  
include building connections between students, staff, and community providers to improve access  
to necessary services.  
These federal CARES Act funds were released as part of a $31.0 million Controlling Board  
request that also included funds for the Ohio Department of Higher Education (DHE,  
$
13.5 million) and ODE ($6.0 million). OhioMHAS will work with these two departments to  
support a coordinated behavioral health approach to the pandemic. The CARES Act allows funds  
to be used for necessary expenditures incurred by the state due to the COVID-19 pandemic  
incurred from March 1, 2020, to December 30, 2020.  
Controlling Board Approves $13.5 Million in COVID-19 Relief Aid  
for Mental Health Assistance at Higher Education Institutions  
Edward Millane, Senior Budget Analyst  
On September 28, 2020, the Controlling Board approved a total of $13.5 million in federal  
funding for mental health response and recovery assistance at public and private institutions of  
higher education. The funding, appropriated in two new line items in the DHE budget, is supported  
by federal CARES Act funds deposited into the Governors Emergency Education Relief Fund  
(
institutions to immediately address the increased demand for mental health and counseling  
support services for their students. Institutions must use these allocations by December 30, 2020,  
Fund 3HQ0) and the Coronavirus Relief Fund (Fund 5CV1). Fund 5CV1 allocations will be used by  
12 According to OhioMHAS, local boards will be reimbursed at a rate of $750 per day for up to  
seven days of treatment.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 20  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
due to federal requirements associated with coronavirus relief funds. Fund 3HQ0 allocations, by  
contrast, will be used by institutions to provide longer-term mental health support and capacity  
development, connect to community mental health resources, and implement behavioral health  
supports in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the anticipated longer-term nature of  
these efforts, DHE expects to disburse these funds from January through June of 2021. Together,  
this $13.5 million in new COVID-19 relief is in addition to the approximately $400 million that  
institutions received directly from the U.S. Department of Education through the CARES Acts  
Higher Education Emergency Relief Fund and the approximately $200 million from Fund 5CV1 that  
DHE disbursed through an enrollment-based formula earlier this year.  
According to DHE, approximately 110 public and private, nonprofit higher education  
institutions will receive a portion of the total $13.5 million available for mental health-related  
efforts at their campuses. Generally, distributions are based on each campusfull-time equivalent  
(
FTE) enrollment with a focus on Pell-eligible students. The table below shows Fund 3HQ0 and  
Fund 5CV1 allocations by institution sector. As the table indicates, the states 14 public  
universities will receive approximately $8.1 million (59.7%). A total of 74 private, nonprofit  
institutions will receive the next highest share at $3.3 million (24.7%), followed by 22 community  
colleges at almost $2.1 million (15.6%).  
CARES Act Mental Health Allocations for Ohio Higher Education Institutions by Sector  
Number of  
Institutions  
Fund 3HQ0  
Allocation  
Fund 5CV1  
Allocation  
Institutional Sector  
Total  
Public universities  
Private, nonprofits  
Community colleges  
14  
74  
$5,076,769  
$2,101,609  
$1,321,622  
$8,500,000  
$2,986,335  
$8,063,104  
$3,337,850  
$2,099,046  
$13,500,000  
$1,236,241  
$777,424  
22  
Total  
110  
$5,000,000  
ODJFS Provides Fall Pandemic EBT Benefits to K-12 Students  
Learning Remotely  
Nicholas J. Blaine, Budget Analyst  
On September 5, 2020, ODJFS announced that a second round of benefits would be  
distributed through the Pandemic-Electronic Benefit Transfer (P-EBT) Program. P-EBT provides  
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits to children in kindergarten through  
th  
1
2 grade who are eligible for free or reduced-price school lunches and unable to attend school  
in person due to COVID-19. In order to be eligible, a student must have participated in a remote  
learning period that lasted for at least five consecutive days between August 1 and September 30.  
Each eligible child received $5.86 per day for each remote learning period that met this  
requirement. ODJFS worked with ODE and local school districts to identify eligible children. Once  
identified, benefits were automatically issued; families did not need to apply. Children already  
receiving SNAP benefits had their benefit loaded onto their existing electronic benefit card.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 21  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Students that did not receive SNAP during this time period were mailed a P-EBT card. ODJFS  
anticipated that 490,000 students would receive $86.1 million in benefits.  
SNAP is an ongoing federal program that assists low-income households in purchasing  
food from authorized merchants. Monthly benefits are provided through a debit card. To qualify,  
recipients must earn less than 130% of the federal poverty level ($28,200 annually for an  
1
3
assistance group of three in 2020). The P-EBT benefits are authorized under the federal Families  
First Coronavirus Response Act of 2020. The first round of P-EBT benefits provided over  
$
250 million in benefits to 850,000 students in March and April of 2020. These funds are provided  
directly through the federal government and are not appropriated in the state budget.  
OFCC Completed Facility Plans for Nine School Districts in  
FY 2020  
Jason Glover, Budget Analyst  
During FY 2020, the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission (OFCC) completed projects  
that fully addressed the facilities needs of nine school districts. As shown in the following table,  
the total master facility plan costs of these projects, as assessed by OFCC, was $462.7 million. Of  
that total, the state share was $212.5 million (46%) and the local share was $250.3 million (54%).  
FY 2020 Completed School Facility Plans  
Total Plan  
Costs  
State  
Share %  
District  
County  
State Share  
Ayersville Local School District  
Chillicothe City School District  
Clear Fork Valley Local School District  
Coventry Local School District  
Lakewood City School District  
Liberty Center Local School District  
Miami Trace Local School District  
Midview Local School District  
Urbana City School District  
Defiance  
Ross  
$16,778,266  
$46,705,261  
$25,599,228  
$30,083,556  
$164,045,059  
$36,539,610  
$42,558,944  
$39,270,231  
$61,148,233  
$462,728,388  
$11,241,438  
$25,687,893  
$15,615,529  
$11,130,916  
$50,853,968  
$23,385,350  
$19,577,114  
$17,671,604  
$37,300,422  
$212,464,236  
67%  
55%  
61%  
37%  
31%  
64%  
46%  
45%  
61%  
46%  
Richland  
Summit  
Cuyahoga  
Henry  
Fayette  
Lorain  
Champaign  
Total  
13 The benefit amount varies based on the income and size of the assistance group.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 22  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Overall, OFCC disbursed $368.1 million for school facilities assistance projects in FY 2020,  
almost 88% ($323.1 million) of which was spent on the Classroom Facilities Assistance Program  
(
CFAP) projects. The remainder, $45.1 million, primarily supported OFCCs Exceptional Needs  
Program ($28.4 million), which addresses the facilities needs of a specific building rather than the  
entire facilities needs of a district, as well as facilities assistance for independent science,  
technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) schools ($10.1 million), the Vocational  
Facilities Assistance Program (VFAP) for joint vocational school districts (JVSDs, $4.4 million), and  
rd  
high-performing community schools ($2.1 million). S.B. 4 of the 133 General Assembly  
appropriates $300 million for classroom facilities assistance projects for the FY 2021-FY 2022  
capital biennium, supported through the sale of bonds.  
Through the end of FY 2020, 44% of districts statewide, including 275 school districts and  
5 JVSDs, have completed projects that fully addressed their facilitiesneeds through CFAP and  
1
VFAP and another 18% of districts, including 116 school districts and one JVSD, have buildings in  
the design or construction phase or had some work performed through another OFCC program.  
An additional 17% of districts, including 100 school districts and 11 JVSDs, have been offered  
funding but have deferred the offer, allowed it to lapse because they were unable to raise the  
required local share, or are in the process of seeking the required local share. The remaining 21%  
of districts, including 119 school districts and 22 JVSDs, have not yet been offered CFAP funding.  
Attorney General Awards $55.5 Million in Federal Victim  
Assistance Grants  
Jessica Murphy, Budget Analyst  
On September 25, 2020, the Office of the Attorney General announced the award of  
55.5 million in federal grants from the Victims of Crime Act (VOCA) Victim Assistance Formula  
$
Grant Program. Eligible programs provide services to victims of domestic violence, sexual assault,  
and human trafficking, as well as children and elderly victims of crime and crime victims with  
disabilities. Grants were awarded to 343 crime victim assistance programs operated by public  
agencies and private nonprofit organizations.  
Individual grants ranged from $8,382 (Hardin County Victim Assistance) to $1.9 million  
1
4
(
Cleveland Rape Crisis Center) with an average award of just over $161,881. The largest share  
of funding around 30% benefitted programs located in Franklin County ($9.1 million to  
4 programs) and Cuyahoga County ($8.9 million to 30 programs). Grant funding is paid as  
4
reimbursements to recipients for expenses incurred within the 12-month grant period, beginning  
October 1, 2020. As a condition of funding, recipients are required to provide monthly financial  
reports to the Attorney General for reimbursement payments to be issued. Recipients are also  
required to provide a 20% cash or in-kind match to their VOCA-funded project.  
VOCA Victim Assistance Grants are awarded by the U.S. Department of Justice to all state  
governments and most territories, which then set priorities and allocate funds to qualifying  
programs within that state or territory. The annual grant amount awarded to each state includes  
a base amount of $500,000, with additional funds based on the states population relative to other  
14 A complete grant award list can be found at: https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Individuals-  
and-Families/Victims/VOCA-SVAA-Grants-for-Advocates/VOCA-SVAA-Grant.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 23  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
states, as determined by U.S Census data. VOCA funding has decreased in recent years due to a  
decline in the fines and penalties recouped from federal criminal cases. As a result, the federal cap  
on funds available for distribution decreased for two consecutive years, from a FY 2018 record  
high of $4.44 billion to $3.35 billion in FY 2019 followed by $2.64 billion in FY 2020.15  
Ohio EPA Grants $725,000 in H2Ohio Funding for Lead Service  
Line Replacement in Cincinnati  
Jamie Doskocil, Fiscal Supervisor  
On September 3, 2020, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (Ohio EPA) announced  
the award of $725,000 in H2Ohio grant funding to the city of Cincinnati to replace lead service  
lines and fixtures at childcare facilities. Eligible child-care centers in the city can apply for funds  
1
6
via the Greater Cincinnati Water Works website. The Greater Cincinnati Water Works has a goal  
of full citywide replacement of lead service lines in 15 years. The average cost to property owners  
is estimated at $3,700 to replace such lines.17 Approximately 185 child-care centers will be  
assisted by the grants.  
H2Ohio is a water quality plan to reduce harmful algal blooms, improve wastewater  
infrastructure, and prevent lead contamination. It is being financed by $172 million transferred  
from FY 2019 GRF surplus revenue and credited to the H2Ohio Fund (Fund 6H20), as authorized in  
H.B. 166. H2Ohios focus is on preventing lead contamination in high-risk daycare centers and  
schools, improving wastewater infrastructure, replacing failing home septic systems, and reducing  
phosphorus runoff and preventing algal blooms through increased implementation of agricultural  
best practices and the creation of wetlands. Part of the goal of H2Ohio is to develop strategies for  
long-term, cost-effective, and permanent water quality solutions. Partner state agencies include  
the Ohio EPA, the Department of Natural Resources (DNR), and the Department of Agriculture  
(
the areas of funding water infrastructure projects, addressing failing home sewage treatment  
systems, and adding water quality monitors.  
AGR). Each agency administers their portion of the funding separately. Ohio EPA offers support in  
The Ohio EPA has previously awarded H2Ohio funding as follows:  
$1 million to Pike Water, Inc., (Pike County) to construct a new drinking water line to  
provide water to more than 100 homes without public water;  
$500,000 to New Waterford (Columbiana County) to construct a new drinking water line  
extension to Crestview Schools;  
$500,000 to West Milton (Miami County) to help improve sanitary sewer services;  
$500,000 to the city of Coshocton to construct a new drinking water line to connect West  
Lafayette to Coshoctons water system;  
15 From FY 2000 to FY 2014, the annual cap varied from $500 million to $745 million In subsequent  
years, the annual cap was $2.36 billion in FY 2015, $3.04 billion in FY 2016, and $2.57 billion in FY 2017.  
16 la.mygcww.org/child-care-providers-parents/.  
17 Smith-Randolph, Walter, WKRC, Cincinnati receives $725,000 to replace lead service lines at day  
care centers, September 3, 2020.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 24  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
$250,000 each to health departments in Erie, Ottawa, Paulding, Putnam, Sandusky,  
Williams, and Wood counties to replace failing household sewage treatment systems.  
Controlling Board Approves Additional Testing for Chronic  
Wasting Disease in Ohio White Tailed Deer  
Tom Wert, Senior Budget Analyst  
On October 26, 2020, the Controlling Board approved $53,200 requested by DNR to  
contract with Colorado State University (CSU) Veterinary Diagnostic Lab to conduct additional  
testing for Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in white tailed deer harvested by hunters during the  
2
020-2021 deer hunting season. CWD is a contagious and fatal neurological disease in deer and elk  
that has been documented in wild deer populations in 24 states including Pennsylvania, Michigan,  
and West Virginia. Previously, CWD was detected in captive white tailed deer in Ohios Wayne  
County but is believed to have been eradicated via depopulation of the affected herd by AGR.  
DNR has conducted CWD surveillance in Ohios wild deer populations dating back to 2002.  
Since then, nearly 24,000 deer have been tested, including more than 3,800 in 2019. Previously,  
testing of wild deer was conducted by AGRs Animal Disease Diagnostic Lab (ADDL). However,  
because CWD has appeared in wild deer populations so close to Ohios borders, DNR will expand  
its 2020-2021 testing program beyond ADDLs capacity. Under an existing agreement, CSU was  
slated to test 1,200 hunter-harvested or road-killed wild deer in 2020-2021. The additional  
contract approved by the Controlling Board adds an additional 2,800 tests, increasing the total  
number of deer to be tested to 4,000. Cost per sample under both the existing and new contracts  
is set at $19 per sample. Funding for the testing will be supported by the Wildlife Fund  
(
permits and federal sportfish and wildlife restoration grants.  
Fund 7015) which receives revenue primarily from the sale of hunting and fishing licenses and  
Department of Commerce Awards Funding to 45 Cemeteries  
Under Cemetery Grant Program  
Shannon Pleiman, Senior Budget Analyst  
On October 20, 2020, the Department of Commerce awarded nearly $74,000 to  
4
5 cemeteries located in 32 counties under the Cemetery Grant Program. The program was  
nd  
created by H.B. 168 of the 132 General Assembly and is used to provide funds to not-for-profit  
cemeteries to (1) defray the costs of exceptional maintenance (nonroutine, nonrepetitive  
maintenance) or (2) train cemetery personnel in the maintenance and operation of cemeteries.  
Overall, grants ranged from a low of $500 to a high of nearly $20,000. Of the 45 cemeteries  
receiving grants, 40 received awards of $1,000. The list of cemeteries awarded under the grant  
and other grant information can be accessed on the Department of Commerce website.  
Under this competitive award program, grant applications are evaluated using project  
budget, cemetery operating budget, and a description of the exceptional maintenance to be  
undertaken, among other criteria. Grants are funded by $1 of each $2.50 burial permit fee that  
is deposited into the Cemetery Grant Fund (Fund 5SE0). The current cash balance in Fund 5SE0  
is $104,000. H.B. 166 appropriated $100,000 for the program in FY 2021.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 25  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Tracking the Economy  
Phil Cummins, Senior Economist  
Ruhaiza Ridzwan, Senior Economist  
Overview  
The national economy continued to expand through October, but the level of activity  
remains below that prior to the pandemic. A widespread resurgence of new COVID-19 infections  
raises questions about the economys near-term course. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose  
for the sixth consecutive month in October, and unemployment fell to its lowest level since  
March. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) rose sharply in the July to  
September quarter, but this measure of the economys total output remained well below its peak  
at the end of 2019. Industrial production slowed in September, after rapid gains in May through  
August, and also remained lower than its prior peak. An index of all prices paid by consumers for  
goods and services increased in June through September, after declining in the previous three  
months. On a year-over-year basis, consumer price inflation is low. Monetary policy remained  
highly supportive of the economy.  
Ohios economy continued to add jobs in September, with employment increasing by a  
total of 484,200 over the past five months, but employment in the state still had not recovered  
from the losses in March and April of 895,100 total jobs suffered at the beginning of the COVID-19  
pandemic. Ohios unemployment rate continued to decline, to 8.4% in September, down from a  
peak of 17.6% in April. The regions economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace,  
as reported by the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank based on information from business contacts.  
Home sales in the state continued higher in July through September than in the corresponding  
months of 2019, after being lower in April and May.  
The National Economy  
Total nonfarm payroll employment nationwide continued to recover in October,  
increasing 638,000 or 0.5%. October was the sixth consecutive month of rising employment, an  
increase in the number of people employed of 12.1 million (9.3%) from the recession low point  
in April. Total employment last month was still 10.1 million (6.6%) below the peak last February.  
In October, large increases in employment were reported in the leisure and hospitality sector,  
professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Government employment fell,  
as temporary decennial Census workers left federal payrolls, and as state and local payrolls were  
reduced in education. Among all employed persons, about 21% teleworked or worked at home  
for pay at some point in the latest four weeks. About 15 million persons did not work at all or  
worked reduced hours in the last four weeks because their employers closed or lost business due  
to the pandemic.  
The number of people counted as unemployed declined in October to 11.1 million, 6.9%  
of the labor force. Last month was the sixth consecutive month in which unemployment fell, from  
a peak of 23.1 million or 14.7% in April. The number of people unemployed, and the nations  
unemployment rate, remained about twice as high in October as in February, before  
pandemic-related layoffs started. Among job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs,  
those on temporary layoff fell to 3.2 million, down from a peak of 18.1 million in April. Those  
whose layoffs were not considered temporary rose to 4.5 million, highest since the economic  
peak and start of the recession in February.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 26  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Total economic activity nationwide as measured by real GDP rose 7.4% in the third  
quarter, a 33% annual rate, in the initial report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The  
increase was the largest ever on quarterly records kept since 1947. This rebound followed the  
sharpest quarterly fall on record in the previous quarter. The increase in real GDP from the  
second to third quarter recovered about two-thirds of the decline from the all-time peak in the  
2
019 fourth quarter and only brought this measure of economic activity back up to about its level  
in the first half of 2018.  
Among major sectors of the economy, consumer spending on goods recovered strongly  
in the third quarter, particularly for durable goods but also nondurables. Light motor vehicle sales  
continued strong in October. Federal pandemic-related support for consumersincomes was  
massive in the third quarter though less than half that provided in the second quarter.18  
Residential investment also was robust in the third quarter, as new home sales rose to the highest  
rate since 2006, supported in part by extraordinarily low mortgage interest rates.  
Other segments of the economy showed less strength. Consumer spending on services,  
hard hit in this years first half, recovered much less than outlays for goods. Fixed investment by  
business, overall, recovered only partially in the latest quarter, with investment outlays for  
structures continuing to decline particularly for mining exploration including oil and gas well  
drilling. Holdings of inventories by business bottomed out in the third quarter after being sharply  
reduced in the first half of the year. Buying of U.S. exports recovered only a small portion of the  
drop in the years first half. Federal government outlays helped support the economy, though  
they slipped somewhat in the third quarter from a second quarter peak. State and local  
government spending fell in both the second and third quarters.  
Industrial production fell 0.6% in September, after climbing for four straight months from  
the April low point of the recession to date. Much of Septembers decline was due to lower  
output of utilities, a result of less use of air conditioning than usual in the month. Factory  
production fell 0.3% in September, with notable month-to-month declines in computers and  
electronic products and in motor vehicles and parts. The other major industry group in industrial  
production, mining, rose in September as extraction of oil and gas rebounded from tropical storm  
disruptions in August. Total industrial production in September was 7% below its level in February  
2
Manufacturing production in September was 6% lower than in February 2020 and 11% lower  
than the all-time peak for the index in 2007.  
020, before the pandemic-related downturn, and 8% below its all-time peak in December 2018.  
In October, manufacturing production appears to have increased, based on reports from  
factory purchasing managers. A comparable survey of purchasing managers in other industries  
also showed reports of expanding business activity outnumbered those indicating contraction.  
Some survey respondents noted both optimism and caution regarding longer-term commitments  
amid uncertainties associated with the pandemic.19  
The consumer price index (CPI) for all items increased 0.2% in September to 1.4% higher  
than a year earlier. Increases in the CPI resumed in the latest four months after declines in March  
through May, when gasoline and other fuel prices fell sharply. Consumer energy prices in  
September were 7.7% lower than a year earlier, while food prices were 3.9% higher. Excluding  
18 This support was mostly through various programs authorized in the CARES Act of 2020.  
19 Institute for Supply Management.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 27  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
food and energy prices, the CPI was 1.7% higher than a year earlier, though prices for some items  
were up more sharply. A CPI subindex for used cars and trucks, for example, was 10.3% higher in  
September than its year-earlier level.  
Chart 5: U.S. and Ohio Nonfarm Payroll Employment  
(
in millions)  
153.9  
148.5  
143.1  
137.7  
132.3  
126.9  
5.7  
5.5  
5.3  
5.1  
4.9  
4.7  
2
016  
2017  
2018  
2019  
2020  
U.S. Employment  
Ohio Employment (right scale)  
Chart 6: U.S. and Ohio Unemployment Rates  
% of Labor Force  
1
1
1
8.0%  
5.0%  
2.0%  
9.0%  
6.0%  
3.0%  
2
016  
2017  
2018  
2019  
Ohio  
2020  
United States  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 28  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The Ohio Economy  
Ohios nonfarm payroll employment continued to increase while the unemployment rate  
decreased to 8.4% in September from 8.9% in August. In September of last year, Ohios  
unemployment rate was 4.1%. The number of unemployed workers in Ohio was 472,000 in  
September, 38,000 fewer than in August and 232,000 more than in September of last year. The  
states unemployment rate in September was higher than the U.S. unemployment rate, which  
was 7.9%.  
Ohios total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, increased by 41,500 or  
.8% in September from the revised total in August. Employment increased over the past five  
0
consecutive months since a low point in April. In September, employment in private  
service-providing industries, goods-producing industries, and government increased by 34,900,  
3
state and federal governments.  
,500, and 3,100, respectively. Job gains were nearly across the board with job losses mainly in  
Compared to September of last year, the states nonfarm payroll employment was  
03,700, or 7.2% lower. Employment in private service-providing industries, goods-producing  
4
industries, and government decreased by 298,800, 53,700, and 51,200, respectively.  
Year-over-year employment losses occurred in most industries, largely in leisure and hospitality  
(
business services (-53,800). Job gains were in federal government (+7,000) and nondurable goods  
manufacturing (+1,900).  
-131,000), followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (-55,100), and professional and  
In September, the number of Ohioans who filed initial claims for unemployment  
insurance dropped to 63,456 from 74,285, a decrease of 14.6%. Compared to September of last  
year, initial claims were up 188.6%. The average weekly number of benefit recipients dropped by  
2
5.9% in September from August but was up by 587.0% from September of last year.  
The number of existing homes sold in Ohio increased by 18.1 % in September compared  
to September 2019, according to the Ohio Association of Realtors. From January through  
September, existing home sales were 0.5% higher than the corresponding months in 2019. The  
statewide sales price of homes sold in the first nine months of this year averaged $209,663 or  
8
.0% higher than the corresponding months in 2019.  
The regions economic activity grew at a moderate pace, according to a Federal Reserve  
2
0
Bank of Cleveland report. Employment picked up slightly but remained well below levels before  
the pandemic. Consumer spending rose modestly. Auto sales continued strong, but general  
merchandisers and apparel retailers noted flat sales. Manufacturing activity edged up  
moderately but was still below the activity level before the pandemic. Residential building and  
sales continued to be strong. Contacts in financial services reported mortgages and auto lending  
activity continued to be strong due to persistent low interest rates, but business lending activity  
was flat. Freight services picked up due to an increase in e-commerce and reopening of the  
economy after disruptions related to COVID-19.  
20 The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s district consists of all of Ohio, western Pennsylvania,  
eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. Comments here are derived from the  
latest edition of the Beige Book, a Federal Reserve publication that summarizes reports from business and  
industry contacts outside of the Federal Reserve System collected on or before October 9, 2020.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 29  
November 2020  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The dollar value of Ohios total retail sales, excluding food service and drinking places and  
nonstore retailers, was higher in June and July than a year earlier, according to an experimental  
data product from the U.S. Census Bureau. From July 2019 to July 2020, total retail sales rose  
2
.9%, after an increase of 4.1% year-over-year in June. Total retail sales were lower than a year  
earlier in March, April, and May due to a statewide lockdown with many retail stores closed at  
the beginning of the pandemic. From July 2019 to July 2020, the highest percentage gain, 17.2%,  
was reported for retail sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores. Retail  
sales of building material and garden equipment stores, garden centers, and other building  
supply dealers were reported 16.8% higher than a year earlier, and furniture and home furnishing  
stores sales were reported 10.4% higher. Retail sales at gasoline stations, clothing and  
accessories stores, and electronics and appliance stores dropped by 18.9%, 15.5%, and 6.7%,  
respectively.  
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) of Ohio residents increased 2.8% during  
CY 2019, according to an annual data release from BEA. Growth in PCE of Ohio residents was  
slower than the average for all 50 states (3.9%), about on par with that in the Great Lakes region  
(
+2.9%) but lower than in neighboring Indiana (+3.3%) and Pennsylvania (+3.7%).21  
21 The Great Lakes region includes Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 30  
November 2020