Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission
Russ Keller, Senior Economist
This section compares actual GRF sources posted each month against OBM’s estimates
for FY 2020, which were released in August 2019. GRF sources consist of state-source receipts
reimbursements for Medicaid and other programs.
tax revenue, nontax revenue, and transfers in) and federal grants, which are typically federal
This report compares actual monthly and YTD GRF revenue sources to OBM's estimates.
If actual receipts are higher than estimate, that GRF source is deemed to have a positive
variance. Alternatively, a GRF source is deemed to have a negative variance if actual receipts
are lower than estimate.
Table 1, which precedes this section, shows GRF sources for the most recent month, in
this case August, relative to the OBM estimates, while Table 2 compares the sources for the
YTD for FY 2020 to the estimates. The YTD table also presents the sum of the sources,
respectively, for the corresponding months in the previous fiscal year and the percent change
from the previous fiscal year to the current fiscal year. For example, Table 1 shows that sources
for August were $2.98 billion and OBM’s estimates totaled $2.90 billion. Thus, August sources
had a positive variance of $82.5 million (2.8%). Table 2 shows that YTD sources (including both
July and August) totaled $5.94 billion compared to an estimate of $5.89 billion. So, the YTD
variance is a positive $53.8 million (0.9%). Table 2 also shows the sum of sources in July and
August 2018 (FY 2019), which were $5.71 billion. Thus, YTD GRF sources are 4.1%
($234.6 million) higher than at the same time last fiscal year.
Referring to Table 1, in August 2019, federal grants and transfers in were short of
anticipated receipts by $42.2 million (5.2%). On the other hand, GRF tax sources and GRF
nontax revenue were above projections by $62.5 million (3.0%) and $62.3 million (959.6%),
respectively. GRF tax receipts from the sales and use tax, CAT, and PIT surpassed estimates, but
those positive variances were partly offset by negative variances from other taxes, netting the
surplus of $62.5 million. Among GRF nontax sources, the other revenue category collected
63.5 million in August whereas the OBM estimate only anticipated monthly receipts of
GRF tax revenue for the YTD was $3.84 billion, $34.1 million (0.9%) above the estimate, an
encouraging start to the new fiscal year. GRF tax sources ended FY 2019 with a positive variance of
651.2 million, driven up by large positive variances from the PIT ($313.2 million) and the sales and
use tax ($234.3 million). Through the first two months of this fiscal year, the sales and use tax and
the CAT posted a combined positive variance of $64.0 million, while the PIT was $14.3 million below
its anticipated revenue, and the FIT experienced a shortfall of $9.0 million. Most other GRF tax
sources were below estimates, including the utility-related taxes ($2.9 million) and cigarette tax
surplus of $0.9 million. Therefore, state sources were $96.9 million above estimate. On the other
$1.5 million). Also, nontax revenue was $61.9 million above projections and transfers in posted a
Utility-related taxes include the kilowatt-hour excise tax, the public utility tax, and the natural
gas consumption tax.
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